Over/unders: Can Notre Dame’s defense generate a red-zone stop vs. Clemson?
Wednesday afternoon is prop bet time at BlueandGold.com. Beat writers Tyler Horka and Patrick Engel give their takes on three statistical props on Notre Dame’s upcoming game. This week, they look at three over/under numbers ahead of the Irish’s game against No. 4 Clemson (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC).
PROMOTION: Join for only $10 to unlock premium access until the start of the 2023 football season
Over/under 0.5 red-zone possessions without allowing a touchdown for Notre Dame’s defense
Patrick Engel: Over
At some point, you run into a bad throw on third down, a sack on second down or an execution error by the offense – no matter how pronounced the struggles have been. Notre Dame has allowed touchdowns on 12 straight opponent red-zone possessions. It has surrendered them on 85 percent of red-zone chances this season, the highest in the country.
There have been bad calls and non-execution moments, but those haven’t been as noticeable as the lack of impact plays. Notre Dame still does not have a sack in the red zone this year and didn’t even make a tackle for loss there against Syracuse last week.
The Irish have delivered steady havoc the last two games, though, with 17 combined tackles for loss, eight sacks and six passes defended. It’s a matter of time before they make a big play in the red zone, because it’s hard to go through a season with such a stark absence of them.
Clemson’s offensive line doesn’t resemble the below average unit it was last year, but it’s 69th in sack rate (6.1 percent). I’ll take Notre Dame to notch a sack in the red zone and force a field goal.
Tyler Horka: Over
Don’t let the first page of CFBstats.com’s red zone conversion leaders fool you. It’ll say Clemson is the third best red zone team in the country with a scoring percentage of 97.44 percent. But Notre Dame fans know well enough that settling for a field goal in the red area often feels like a loss. Clemson has done that 10 times in 39 red zone trips.
Clemson’s red zone touchdown percentage of 71.79 percent, therefore, ranks No. 22 nationally. That still isn’t bad, but it’s not the almost automatic clip owned by the nation’s leader in the category — Mississippi State at 87.50 percent.
It’s not impossible to force Clemson to line up for three points once the Tigers get inside the 20-yard line. Notre Dame might make it seem that way with the nation’s worst red zone touchdown percentage allowed by opponents, but with the pressure of such a big game and with Clemson being on the road I envision the Tigers slipping up in prime scoring territory at least once.
Over/under 4.0 yards per carry for Notre Dame
Patrick Engel: Over
Yards per carry can be a misleading stat because it’s designed to measure rushing efficiency yet includes sacks – which are decidedly not run plays. But it’s still a fine measure of how an offensive line handles a defensive front. Run the ball well but allow a lot of sacks? Chances are the offense sputtered. Vice-versa? Same deal.
Notre Dame has topped 4.0 yards per rush in five straight games (seven if you remove sack yardage). Clemson is 11th in yards per carry allowed (2.98), but allowed 6.06 (to Florida State) and 4.43 (to Syracuse) in its last two games despite 7 sacks in that span.
Clemson hasn’t faced an offensive line like Notre Dame’s this year. Notre Dame hasn’t seen a defensive front like the Tigers’ since the opener at Ohio State, when the Irish averaged 3.5 yards per non-sack rush and allowed 3 sacks.
I don’t see Notre Dame running through Clemson like it did in the first 2020 matchup (208 yards, 5.2 per rush). But I’m a buyer in the Irish offensive line being much better than it was against Ohio State. I’ll go in the low 4s for their yards per rush.
Tyler Horka: Over
Notre Dame has not been held under 4.0 yards per carry since the win over California on Sept. 17. Clemson has allowed over 4.0 yards per carry to each of its last two opponents, Florida State and Syracuse. Things are trending in the right direction for the Fighting Irish.
However, if any team can bow up to Notre Dame’s “we’re going to run it right at you even when you know we’re going to run it right at you” mantra, it’s Clemson. So it’s not going to be easy.
But if Florida State can run 32 times for 206 yards (6.06 yards per carry) against these Tigers, then Notre Dame can certainly find a way to average more than 4.0 yards per tote behind an ever-improving, highly-talented offensive line and with a three-headed monster at running back that is coming off one of its most productive games in combining for 48 carries and 231 yards vs. Syracuse.
Over/under 175 passing yards for Notre Dame QB Drew Pyne
Patrick Engel: Under
This is an exploitable Clemson secondary, but it’s not the leaky North Carolina one on which Pyne hung 289 yards and 3 touchdowns. Pyne’s play the last three weeks hasn’t inspired confidence he can tear up subpar or average secondaries. He completed 48 percent of his passes against Stanford’s porous secondary defense and 50 percent against UNLV.
Three games in a row at 50 percent or worse and two of three under 150 yards don’t give me a lot of confidence a turnaround is coming. Three games doesn’t feel like a blip.
Even if Pyne completes around 60 percent of his throws, Notre Dame won’t lean on him too much unless it finds itself in a negative game script. The Irish know who they are, and that’s a run-first team. A tough matchup with Clemson won’t deter them from leaning into that identity.
Tyler Horka: Under
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
I predicted Pyne to go over 64% passing against Syracuse. He completed 47.4% of his passes to go under 50% for the second time in three games. The only game he was not under that mark in that stretch? He hit 50% on the dot against UNLV. His struggles are not just a short-term funk at this point. They’re real, and they could last a little longer — especially against a team like Clemson.
The Tigers have allowed 244.6 passing yards per game, but they’ve played teams that have thrown it 40 or more times in five of eight games. If Pyne is asked to throw it 40-plus times, something has gone terribly, terribly wrong for the Irish.
Notre Dame can win when Pyne throws for 150 yards or less. It’s happened twice (California and Syracuse). It might be tougher to get the job done in that way vs. Clemson, but the Irish are sure going to try. Ground and pound. Take the game out of the struggling QB’s hands.
