On paper: breaking down Navy vs. Notre Dame

Notre Dame goes into every game against rival Navy with a favorable talent discrepancy. The Fighting Irish just have better players, period.

But 2022 showed, just as Herb Brooks told his 1980 USA Olympic hockey team, that sometimes it’s not enough to simply win on talent alone. Navy scored 19 unanswered second-half points to narrowly lose, 35-32.

On paper, Notre Dame is once again a runaway favorite. But Navy is once again pesky enough to hang with the Irish in certain areas of the game, especially considering the unique nature of the triple-option and reinvigoration with a new head coach.

Here is how Notre Dame stacks up against Navy in every phase of the game.

Navy Running Game Vs. Notre Dame Run Defense

This is generally the matchup this rivalry series comes down to every year. Notre Dame has had little extra time to prepare for Navy’s triple-option rushing attack, which bodes well for the Irish.

Head coach Marcus Freeman said in the spring that the Irish would have a day dedicated to preparing for Navy. Undoubtedly, there will be more than just one fall camp day designed to get the players’ minds thinking about how to stay assignment sound against the option. If last year was any indication of what Navy might do to Notre Dame in Dublin, every single one of those days will be needed.

Navy rushed for 5.5 yards per carry versus the Irish in Baltimore last November. That was the Midshipmen’s second-best single-game yards per carry average of the 2022 season. Notre Dame couldn’t contain fullback Daba Fofana, who ran 15 times for 133 yards and a touchdown. Fofana, a junior, is back in the fold this fall.

Notre Dame has a bunch of veteran defensive linemen and three graduate student linebackers returning from the team that barely squeaked by Navy by three points after allowing those 19 unanswered points in the second half last year. They’ll remember how close they came to blowing the game and won’t want to let that happen in the 2023 season opener.

Look for veteran tackles Rylie Mills and Howard Cross III to have a good performance overseas. Sophomore linebacker Jaylen Sneed might have a chance to display his athleticism and set the tone for his second season on the team.

Notre Dame will shut the Mids down from the start on Aug. 26.

Advantage: Notre Dame

Navy Passing Game Vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense

Navy’s passing offense is basically the inverse of its rushing defense. The Midshipmen run defense is everywhere. Its passing game is mostly nonexistent.

Navy ranked 127th out of 131 FBS teams in intended air yards in 2022. The Midshipmen had 1,787 per Sports Info Solutions. For reference, an average mark was Colorado at 65th nationally with 3,403 — nearly double that of Navy.

First-year head coach Brian Newberry said Navy is going to throw it a little more than it has in years past, so Notre Dame needs to be ready for that, but by and large there is no excuse for the Fighting Irish to let Navy have success through the air. The Mids did not throw for more than 152 yards in a single game last year. They went for 108 yards on 13 attempts against the Irish.

Notre Dame did not boast a particularly strong passing defense in 2022. The Irish ranked tied for 129th in passes broken up with just 24, less than two per game. They don’t have to be aggressive against Navy against the pass, though. They just need to be on high alert. They can’t bite on any of the quirky stuff the Midshipmen are bound to throw them in a highly anticipated season opener.

Even if they do, if the worst that happens to the Notre Dame defense is a chunk play allowed on a gimmicky pass then defensive coordinator Al Golden can live with it — especially if the unit rebounds and does not give up a touchdown on either the play itself or afterward.

Advantage: Notre Dame

Notre Dame Running Game Vs. Navy Run Defense

In spite of a 4-8 record in 2022, Navy actually performed quite well defensively against the run. The second-best rushing yards allowed per game average in the country told most of the story. The Midshipmen gave up only 88.9 yards on the ground per contest.

There were some advanced analytics that played out in favor of the Mids as well. Per Sports Info Solutions, Navy had the fifth-lowest rushing touchdown percentage in the FBS at 2.2 percent. For reference, national champion Georgia ranked third nationally at 1.9 percent. Navy’s other company at the top of the chart were programs with a reputation for stingy defense in Iowa (0.9), Illinois (1.6) and Iowa State (2.1).

Navy also ranked second in the country in stuff percentage at 28.3 percent, seventh in yards per attempt against at 3.9 and eighth in first down percentage allowed at 21.8 percent. By many metrics, Navy had a top-10 run defense last year. The Midshipmen have experienced players from that unit returning for 2023, with three seniors and a junior slated to start across the defensive line.

Notre Dame, meanwhile, brings back a tank of a running back in junior Audric Estimé and four more scholarship players who are all capable of earning RB2 status. The Irish offensive line is projected to be stout with three returning starters, too.

That said, Notre Dame rushed for only 66 yards against Navy last year. The Midshipmen did to the Irish what they did to pretty much everyone all year. Notre Dame also rushed for only 76 yards in last year’s season opener versus Ohio State with the offensive line not in sync right away.

Notre Dame doesn’t need to try to win this game on the ground despite Freeman wanting to win every game that way. If there is any facet of the game in which Navy can hang with Notre Dame, it’s against the Irish’s rushing attack.

Advantage: Navy

Notre Dame Passing Game Vs. Navy Pass Defense

Notre Dame has Sam Hartman now. The Fighting Irish don’t have to worry much about whether they can put up numbers and points through the air on a weekly basis anymore — especially against a Navy team that gave up 250.1 passing yards per game in 2022, which ranked 97th in the FBS.

Navy has a senior, two juniors and a sophomore starting in the four secondary spots, so it’s not like the Midshipmen are rolling out a cast of players who are foreign to seeing the ball go up in the air.

Hartman, though, is unlike anyone Navy saw at the quarterback position in 2022. If the best QB Navy faced last year was Seth Henigan, Tanner Mordecai or Clayton Tune, Hartman could have another thing coming.

Hartman led the FBS with 2,656 air yards last year. Navy faced 3,397 intended air yards all season. Hartman nearly had as many successful air yards as the Midshipmen had attempted against them.

Notre Dame is going to need some inexperienced players to step up as pass catchers. There is no doubt about that. This is the first chance for junior Jayden Thomas to show he can be a true No. 1 wideout. It’s the first collegiate game for the three early enrollee freshmen. It’s senior Chris Tyree’s first game as a full-time wide receiver. There is no Michael Mayer to fall back on.

The pressure is on. But the Aviva Stadium lights shouldn’t be too bright.

Advantage: Notre Dame

Special Teams

How poetic it was when Notre Dame linebacker Jack Kiser blocked a Navy punt to set up what was ultimately the game-winning touchdown in Baltimore last year. Notre Dame had the special teams edge in every game it played last year, except for the Gator Bowl against South Carolina. That was a meeting of the special teams minds in Notre Dame’s Brian Mason and South Carolina’s Pete Lembo, two semifinalists for the Broyles Award given annually to the best assistant coach in the country.

Mason is with the Indianapolis Colts now, though, so it’s not a given the Irish are going to roll out of bed and make a special teams play that changes any game in 2023. It’s on new special teams coordinator Marty Biagi to not let there be too much of a dip in special teams production.

South Florida transfer Spencer Shrader showed off his leg in a fall camp practice open to the media in late July. He made 6 of 8 attempts that day, including one from 49 yards out. He seems like a serviceable replacement for Blake Grupe. Bryce McFerson has a monster leg and should do just fine as the punting successor to Jon Sot, too.

Navy had only two kick returns go for 30-plus yards and one punt return go for 20-plus yards in 2022. The Midshipmen aren’t shocking anybody with overly athletic skill players in the return game. Senior Evan Warren is the projected starting placekicker, and he has attempted only 1 field goal in his career.

Notre Dame has more talented players across the board, so they should be fine on special teams against a foe like Navy, even without Mason calling the shots.

Advantage: Notre Dame

Coaching

This is a battle between a first-year head coach in Navy’s Newberry and a second-year head coach in Notre Dame’s Freeman. Advantage: Freeman. He’s seen and done so much more than Newberry as a head coach.

Freeman’s first game as the man in charge was the Fiesta Bowl against a top-10 Oklahoma State team. Then he took Notre Dame into the Horseshoe in Columbus, the stadium he used to call home in front of the fans that used to root for him, for a consensus top-five, season-opening matchup against Ohio State.

Sure, he lost both of those games — and then the following one at home against Marshall — but everywhere Freeman has gone and everything he has done in a year and a half as the Notre Dame head coach has prepared him for games like this.

Notre Dame and Navy are kicking the entire 2023 college football season off on NBC in Dublin, Ireland. That’s even a little more intense than taking the team to Las Vegas to play BYU in a midseason Shamrock Series game. By the way, Freeman’s team pulled that one out.

Newberry studied what it takes to be the head coach at a unique place like Navy under former Midshipmen leader Ken Niumatalolo for four seasons, so he is not unprepared, but Freeman has had a microscope over him from the minute he was named Brian Kelly’s successor in December 2021. Freeman is also 9-2 in his last 11 games.

He’s got the edge here.

Advantage: Notre Dame

Intangibles

Notre Dame reported in May that the university expects this game to be the most traveled to single international sporting event ever. Approximately 40,000 Americans are expected to flock to Dublin for this epic season opener.

Obviously, that raises the stakes of the game. And there is nothing either side can do about it. They still have to strap up the helmets and settle the score between the white lines just like they would if the game was played in South Bend or anywhere else.

Notre Dame having a sixth-year graduate student starting quarterback is invaluable in games in which players’ hearts might beat a little faster. He’s acclimated to the Notre Dame culture nicely, and he has a voice players on both sides of the ball will listen to.

Notre Dame often playing in unique environments will aid them in settling down in a foreign atmosphere, too. The lights in Vegas were probably a little brighter, even if more people end up watching this game against Navy than watched that one against BYU.

The bottom line is this is what Notre Dame does. It’s not Navy playing Cincinnati or Memphis in Dublin. It’s Navy playing Notre Dame in Dublin. And the last time that happened, the Fighting Irish walked off with a 50-10 dismantling of their friendly foes from the service academy.

Notre Dame was built to win ballgames like this.

Advantage: Notre Dame