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Notre Dame

SP+ projections: What do ESPN analytics say about Notre Dame?

IMG_7504by: Jack Soble05/27/25jacksoble56
Marcus freeman-8
Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman. (Chad Weaver, Blue & Gold)

Late last week, ESPN released the post-spring update of its SP+ projections. Notre Dame fell one spot from the initial 2025 rankings, down from No. 5 to No. 6. However, the Irish have the highest projected win total in the country.

Here’s what ESPN’s analytics say about Notre Dame right now, and what they tell us about what the Irish could do in 2025.

SP+ ranking

Notre Dame fell behind Texas, who jumped both the Irish and the Oregon Ducks in the spring update. Here is the full top 10:

School (diff. from initial rankings)SP+ ratingOffense (Rk.)Defense (Rk.)
1. Ohio State29.539.6 (7)10.1 (2)
2. Alabama27.940.4 (5)12.6 (5)
3. Penn State27.740.6 (3)12.9 (6)
4. Georgia26.939.0 (8)12.1 (4)
5. Texas (+2)26.435.4 (17)9.0 (1)
6. Notre Dame (-1)24.938.3 (10)13.4 (8)
7. Oregon (-1)24.740.5 (4)15.8 (11)
8. Clemson (+3)23.339.9 (6)16.7 (12)
9. LSU (+1)22.140.7 (2)18.6 (23)
10. Michigan (+3)21.531.8 (32)10.3 (3)

SP+ is based on three primary factors: Returning production, recent recruiting and recent history. ESPN’s Bill Connelly describes SP+ as the following:

“SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and along those lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather.”

Connelly is also experimenting with a fourth factor in the post-spring rankings: Coaching changes. For example, part of Notre Dame’s slight bump down may have been the result of losing defensive coordinator Al Golden to the NFL and replacing him with Chris Ash.

That does not mean SP+ is down on Ash, but under Golden, Notre Dame over-performed on defense relative to its previous history. SP+ adjusted based on that fact.

Projected win total

Notre Dame’s projected win total, despite being ranked as the sixth-best team, is No. 1 in the country at 10.5. Here is the full top 10 (Power Four teams + Notre Dame only):

SchoolProj. win totalStrength of schedule rk.
1. Notre Dame10.544
2. Penn State10.429
3. Ohio State10.321
4. Oregon10.132
5. Clemson10.034
T6. Alabama9.811
T6. Georgia9.813
T6. Michigan9.838
9. Texas9.612
10. Miami9.236

Per SP+, Notre Dame has a 52 percent chance to go 11-1 or better — which would make the Irish a candidate for a first-round bye and a lock for at least a first-round home game in the College Football Playoff.

Strength of schedule

Notre Dame’s strength of schedule is ranked 44th. Per Connelly, strength of schedule is based on one question: “How would the average top-five team fare against your schedule?”

Connelly wrote that a top-five team would average 10.7 wins against Notre Dame’s schedule but just 9.1 against the most difficult schedule in the country (Oklahoma).

“Notre Dame starts the season with games against Miami and Texas A&M, and while the rest of the schedule features plenty of solid opponents (five are projected between 30th and 47th), if the Irish are 2-0 out of the gates, they’re staring a second straight CFP appearance in the face,” Connelly wrote.

Miami is Notre Dame’s toughest opponent in SP+, ranking 12th. Texas A&M is close behind at No. 15. The five opponents between 30th and 47th are USC (30), Boise State (33), Arkansas (38), NC State (42) and Pittsburgh (47).

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