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Ohio State

Ohio State projected to make deep College Football Playoff run

Spencer-Holbrookby: Spencer Holbrook07/01/25SpencerHolbrook
Ohio State safety Caleb Downs
© Barbara J. Perenic/Columbus Disp / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

COLUMBUS — Ohio State is in the middle of summer workouts as the defending national champions with a lot to replace in the pursuit of repeating.

On3 national college football expert Brett McMurphy, who routinely puts out bowl projections throughout the year, expects another Buckeyes run at a national title, although he has them falling just short of repeating.

In his first edition of bowl projections this summer, McMurphy has the Buckeyes earning a first-round bye under the new straight-seeding model, despite not winning the Big Ten. He has Penn State winning the league and earning the No. 2 seed while Ohio State checks in at the No. 4 seed.

In this projection, McMurphy has Ohio State facing No. 5 Texas in the CFP quarterfinal at the Cotton Bowl on Dec. 31 — and beating the Longhorns. The Buckeyes then move on to the Fiesta Bowl semifinal against No. 1 seed Notre Dame on Jan. 8 — and beating the Irish.

McMurphy isn’t predicting back-to-back national championship wins for the Buckeyes, however. He has Ohio State losing to No. 3 Georgia in the title game in Hard Rock Stadium on Jan. 19.

Other Big Ten teams McMurphy has in the summer CFP projections are No. 2 seed Penn State and No. 9 seed Oregon. He has Penn State losing to Georgia in the semifinal and has Oregon falling to Notre Dame in the quarterfinal.

In other bowl projections, McMurphy has forecasted Michigan to face Florida in the Citrus Bowl on Dec. 31.

The full College Football Playoff projections from Brett McMurphy can be found below. His full bowl projections are here.

College Football Playoff projections from On3’s Brett McMurphy

First Round (Dec. 19-20)
No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Texas
No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 LSU
No. 11 Utah at No. 6 Clemson
No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Alabama

Quarterfinals
Cotton Bowl (Dec. 31)
AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Texas

Orange Bowl (Jan. 1, 2026)
Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.
No. 1 Notre Dame vs. 9 Oregon

Rose Bowl (January 1, 2026)
Rose Bowl Stadium in Pasadena, Calif.
No. 2 Penn State vs. No. 7 Alabama

Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1, 2026)
Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, La.
No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 6 Clemson

Semifinals
Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 8, 2026)
State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.
No. 1 Notre Dame vs. No. 4 Ohio State

Peach Bowl (Jan. 8, 2026)
Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga.
No. 2 Penn State vs. No. 3 Georgia

National Championship (Jan. 19, 2026)
Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.
No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 4 Ohio State (Georgia winner)

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