Updated College Football Playoff projection for Ohio State

COLUMBUS — Ohio State is less than 100 days away from hosting Texas in the season opener of the 2025 college football season.

The Buckeyes are the defending College Football Playoff national champions, and they expect to compete for that same trophy again this fall.

And the folks around college football are expecting the same thing from the Buckeyes, including On3 college football expert Andy Staples. Now that we’re less than 100 days from the season, Staples released his updated College Football Playoff predictions with the new straight seeding model that the tournament is shifting to this upcoming season — after just one year with the old format.

Staples has Ohio State in the 2025 CFP as the No. 5 seed, hosting a first-round matchup for the second straight year. The Buckeyes hosted and beat Tennessee 42-17 in the first round of last year’s CFP. Staples projects Ohio State to play No. 12 seed James Madison in the first round — and win.

This is what Andy Staples said about the Buckeyes making the 12-team field and playing against No. 12 seed James Madison, the Group of Five CFP team:

Perhaps Boise State rolls through the Mountain West and into a second consecutive CFP. But the Broncos don’t have Ashton Jeanty anymore and play at Notre Dame on Oct. 4. They also face tricky non-conference matchups at USF and against Appalachian State. So let’s look to a different league. Bob Chesney replaced Curt Cignetti at JMU and led the Dukes to a 9-4 record even though some of JMU’s best 2023 players were helping Indiana go 11-1 and make the CFP. He’s now reunited with his former Holy Cross QB Matthew Sluka. (Remember him from the first month of UNLV’s 2024 season?)

The dilution of the American from Big 12 expansion has made the Sun Belt a more comparable league at the top of the Group of 5 (soon to be 6). A Sun Belt champion JMU would be under consideration, especially if the Dukes can beat Louisville in non-conference play. Unfortunately, the ride ends in Columbus. I placed Ohio State here by having the Buckeyes lose to Texas, beat Penn State in Columbus and then lose to the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten title game. 

Staples then has the Buckeyes facing ACC champion and No. 4 seed Clemson in the Orange Bowl quarterfinal. Clemson would receive the first-round bye in this situation, but Staples has Ohio State beating Clemson for a second straight time and advancing the the CFP semifinal.

Here’s what Staples said about the quarterfinal matchup against the Tigers:

This projection has Clemson beating LSU to start the season and dominating in the ACC before losing to South Carolina in its regular-season finale. The Tigers then beat Miami in the ACC title game to secure a bye.

Unlike last year’s Rose Bowl, Ohio State doesn’t come roaring out of the gates. The Tigers and Buckeyes play a classic, and the Buckeyes advance to the semifinals.

After beating Clemson in Staples’ projection, the Buckeyes would move on to face Texas for the second time this season — in the Peach Bowl. In this projection, the No. 1 seed Texas beat No. 8 seed Oregon in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinal to advance.

Here’s what Staples said about the semifinal rematch — a rematch of last year’s Cotton Bowl semifinal and of this season’s opener in Columbus:

The rematch of last year’s Cotton Bowl semifinal goes the other way this time. It’s safe to say that in crunch time, Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian does not call a toss play near the goal line. 

He’s learned his lesson.

Seems like Staples believes that Sark and the Longhorns would have beaten Ohio State in the semifinal last year if they called better plays on the goal line. Lettermen Row thinks the Buckeyes would have won the game regardless — because they did on their way to a national championship after bouncing Texas out of the CFP.

Staples has Ohio State making the CFP and making a deep run in that playoff this season — but coming up short in the semifinal.