What ESPN FPI, advanced numbers say about Buckeyes after 11 games
COLUMBUS — With just one game remaining in the regular season, Ohio State remains the No. 1 team in college football in both major polls — and the advanced numbers agree. ESPN FPI yet again has the Buckeyes in the top spot after the fourth weekend of November college football action.
Ohio State beat Rutgers on Saturday to move to 11-0 on the season. The Buckeyes had no trouble with the Scarlet Knights, who haven’t been good this season and are fighting for bowl eligibility.
The top five of the ESPN FPI is rounded out by Indiana, Notre Dame, Oregon and Alabama. The final Buckeyes opponent of the regular season, Michigan, is at 18 — the Wolverines will be the biggest test of the year for Ohio State.
A reminder on what FPI is from ESPN: “The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”
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Ohio State checked in with ESPN’s No. 3 strength of record, trailing Texas A&M and Indiana. The Buckeyes have ESPN’s No. 52 strength of schedule and the No. 11 remaining strength of schedule. They’re also No. 1 in the ESPN Game Control Ranking.
The numbers say Ohio State is currently projected to finish with a record of 12.3-0.5, meaning the model is heavily leaning toward an 12-0 record for the Buckeyes at the end of the regular season — it does give the Buckeyes a 50-percent chance to go undefeated, showing that these advanced numbers are still truly catching up to this team with two weeks remaining.
Here are the numbers on what ESPN FPI says about Ohio State 11 games into the season:
Chance to go undefeated:
Last week: 50.4%
This week: 50.0%
Chance to win the Big Ten
Last week: 51.3%
This week: 50.1%
Chance to make the College Football Playoff:
Last week: 99.8%
This week: 100%
Chance to make the national championship game:
Last week: 42.7%
This week: 44.3%
Chance to win the national championship game:
Last week: 26.5%
This week: 27.1%