Advanced numbers catching up to Buckeyes dominance

COLUMBUS — Ohio State has finally claimed the top spot in the latest update to the ESPN Football Power Index after another week of college football.

The Buckeyes leap-frogged Oregon to take over as the top team according to the ESPN advanced metric computer model. The top five is rounded out by Oregon, Alabama, Indiana and Notre Dame. The next Buckeyes opponent, Illinois, is at 28, one spot behind a Washington team the Buckeyes beat last weekend.

A reminder on what FPI is from ESPN: “The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

The Buckeyes are currently second in the ESPN SP+ ratings, behind only the Oregon Ducks. They have an offensive rating of 37.0, ninth nationally, to go with an 8.0 defensive rating, first nationally, and a 0.1 special team rating, 39th nationally.

The numbers say Ohio State is currently projected to finish with a record of 11.5-1.2, meaning the model is leaning toward an 11-1 record for the Buckeyes at the end of the regular season — but it does give the Buckeyes a 23.5-percent chance to go undefeated.

Here are the numbers on what ESPN FPI says about Ohio State six weeks — and five games — into the season:

Chance to go undefeated:

Last week: 15.8%
This week: 23.5%

Chance to win the Big Ten

Last week: 30.5%
This week: 38.2%

Chance to make the College Football Playoff:

Last week: 87.2%
This week: 89.4%

Chance to make the national championship game:

Last week: 28.9%
This week: 32.8%

Chance to win the national championship game:

Last week: 17.0%
This week: 20.2%