Buckeyes emerge as clear top team in college football, advanced numbers say

COLUMBUS — Ohio State finally claimed the top spot in the ESPN Football Power Index last weekend. Now the Buckeyes are still dominating — and the advanced metrics are catching up to how good this team has been halfway through the year.

The top five of the ESPN FPI is rounded out by Indiana, Alabama, Notre Dame and Oregon. The next Buckeyes opponent, Wisconsin, is at 66 after getting blown out at home by Iowa. Indiana moved into the No. 2 spot after beating Oregon on the road in an epic top-10 showdown. Alabama beat Missouri on the road, while Notre Dame downed North Carolina State.

The Buckeyes beat Illinois, which is No. 28 in ESPN FPI, by three scores on Saturday in Champaign.

The remaining opponents on the Buckeyes’ schedule:

at No. 66 Wisconsin
vs. No. 21 Penn State
at No. 74 Purdue
vs. No. 67 UCLA
vs. No. 54 Rutgers
at No. 17 Michigan

A reminder on what FPI is from ESPN: “The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

The numbers say Ohio State is currently projected to finish with a record of 11.9-0.9, meaning the model is leaning toward an 12-0 record for the Buckeyes at the end of the regular season — it does give the Buckeyes a 35.6-percent chance to go undefeated, showing that these advanced numbers are truly catching up to this team.

Here are the numbers on what ESPN FPI says about Ohio State six games — officially halfway — into the season:

Chance to go undefeated:

Last week: 23.5%
This week: 35.6%

Chance to win the Big Ten

Last week: 38.2%
This week: 51.7%

Chance to make the College Football Playoff:

Last week: 89.4%
This week: 95.1%

Chance to make the national championship game:

Last week: 32.8%
This week: 38.3%

Chance to win the national championship game:

Last week: 20.2%
This week: 23.9%