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What ESPN FPI, advanced numbers say about Buckeyes after seven games

Spencer-Holbrookby: Spencer Holbrook7 hours agoSpencerHolbrook

COLUMBUS — Ohio State is still the top team in college football after another dominant performance. The Buckeyes stayed undefeated on the season, and the advanced numbers continue to love this team.

Ryan Day’s program remains No. 1 in the latest update to the ESPN Football Power Index after shutting Wisconsin out in a 34-0 road win before the second idle week of the year.

The top five of the ESPN FPI is rounded out by Oregon, Alabama, Indiana and Notre Dame. The next Buckeyes opponent, Penn State, is at 21 — even as losers of four straight games and without a Power Four win this season. Wisconsin fell to No. 69 after its blowout loss to Ohio State, down three spots from where it was before the game on Saturday.

The remaining opponents on the Buckeyes’ schedule:

vs. No. 21 Penn State
at No. 77 Purdue
vs. No. 64 UCLA
vs. No. 63 Rutgers
at No. 16 Michigan

A reminder on what FPI is from ESPN: “The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

Ohio State checked in with ESPN’s No. 3 strength of record, trailing Texas A&M and Indiana. The Buckeyes have ESPN’s No. 33 strength of schedule and the No. 39 remaining strength of schedule. They’re also No. 1 in the ESPN Game Control Ranking.

The numbers say Ohio State is currently projected to finish with a record of 12.1-0.7, meaning the model is heavily leaning toward an 12-0 record for the Buckeyes at the end of the regular season — it does give the Buckeyes a 43-percent chance to go undefeated, showing that these advanced numbers are truly catching up to this team.

Here are the numbers on what ESPN FPI says about Ohio State seven games into the season:

Chance to go undefeated:

Last week: 35.6%
This week: 43%

Chance to win the Big Ten

Last week: 51.7%
This week: 55%

Chance to make the College Football Playoff:

Last week: 95.1%
This week: 96.6%

Chance to make the national championship game:

Last week: 38.3%
This week: 42.1%

Chance to win the national championship game:

Last week: 23.9%
This week: 27.5%