What ESPN FPI, advanced numbers say about Buckeyes after eight games

COLUMBUS — With four games remaining in the regular season, Ohio State remains the No. 1 team in college football in both major polls — and the advanced numbers agree. ESPN FPI yet again has the Buckeyes in the top spot after the first weekend of November college football action.

Ohio State beat Penn State 38-14 inside the Horseshoe on Saturday to move to 8-0 on the season. The Buckeyes shut the Nittany Lions out in the second half of the blowout win over the reeling Nittany Lions, who were a preseason national title favorite but are 3-5 on the year.

The top five of the ESPN FPI is rounded out by Indiana, Oregon, Alabama and Notre Dame. The next Buckeyes opponent, Purdue, is at 77 — the Boilermakers have lost seven straight and are without a Power Four win this season. They’re the lowest-ranked team remaining on the schedule in terms of ESPN FPI.

The remaining opponents on the Buckeyes’ schedule:

at No. 77 Purdue
vs. No. 68 UCLA
vs. No. 64 Rutgers
at No. 19 Michigan

A reminder on what FPI is from ESPN: “The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

Ohio State checked in with ESPN’s No. 3 strength of record, trailing Texas A&M and Indiana. The Buckeyes have ESPN’s No. 33 strength of schedule and the No. 24 remaining strength of schedule. They’re also No. 1 in the ESPN Game Control Ranking.

The numbers say Ohio State is currently projected to finish with a record of 12.2-0.6, meaning the model is heavily leaning toward an 12-0 record for the Buckeyes at the end of the regular season — it does give the Buckeyes a 45.3-percent chance to go undefeated, showing that these advanced numbers are still truly catching up to this team.

Here are the numbers on what ESPN FPI says about Ohio State eight games into the season:

Chance to go undefeated:

Last week: 43%
This week: 45.3%

Chance to win the Big Ten

Last week: 55%
This week: 49.7%

Chance to make the College Football Playoff:

Last week: 96.6%
This week: 98.8%

Chance to make the national championship game:

Last week: 42.1%
This week: 41.5%

Chance to win the national championship game:

Last week: 27.5%
This week: 25.8%