What advanced metrics say about Ohio State ahead of Big Ten play
COLUMBUS — Ohio State was No. 3 in ESPN’s FPI metric following its season-opening win over Texas to open the season. The Buckeyes stayed at that third spot following the win over Grambling State before moving up to No. 2 after the win over Ohio.
Now the Buckeyes are staying put No. 2 in the ESPN metric. Oregon retained the top spot, while the top five is rounded out by Alabama, Georgia and Texas. Indiana moved into the No. 6 spot after destroying Illinois on Saturday night.
Future Ohio State opponents notably in the top 25: No. 10 Penn State (down three spots) and No. 12 Michigan (down two spots). No. 37 Illinois was at No. 23 prior to Week 4 but fell 14 spots after the blowout loss at Indiana.
A reminder on what FPI is from ESPN: “The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”
Top 10
- 1New
Setting the table
Buckeyes gearing up for Big Ten opener at Washington
- 2Hot
Previewing Sayin's first road trip
After raising expectations with strong start, Julian Sayin moves on to new test
- 3
Buckeyes fixing red-zone issues
Ohio State working to remedy red-zone woes during idle week
- 4Breaking
Another night game in the Shoe?
Ohio State vs. Minnesota: Kickoff time, TV channel announced
- 5
Ohio State True Freshmen Tracker
Which players have played in all three games to start the season?
Get the Daily On3 Newsletter in your inbox every morning
By clicking "Subscribe to Newsletter", I agree to On3's Privacy Notice, Terms, and use of my personal information described therein.
The Buckeyes are currently still third in the ESPN SP+ ratings behind Oregon and Penn State. They have an offensive rating of 37.5, 13th nationally, to go with an 11.1 defensive rating, second nationally, and a 0.2 special team rating, 12th nationally.
The numbers say Ohio State is currently projected to finish with a record of 10.7-1.7, meaning the model expects the Buckeyes to finish at least 10-2 but is leaning toward an 11-1 record.
Here are the numbers on what ESPN FPI says about Ohio State four weeks into the season with three games and an idle week:
Chance to go undefeated:
Last week: 9.2%
This week: 9.7%
Chance to win the Big Ten
Last week: 25.3%
This week: 22.9%
Chance to make the College Football Playoff:
Last week: 77.4%
This week: 75.9%
Chance to make the national championship game:
Last week: 23.6%
This week: 22.1%
Chance to win the national championship game:
Last week: 13.7%
This week: 12.5%