What advanced metrics say about Ohio State through two weeks

COLUMBUS — Ohio State was No. 3 in ESPN’s FPI metric following its season-opening win over Texas last week. The Buckeyes stayed at that third spot following the win over Grambling State on Saturday afternoon.

The advanced metrics love the Buckeyes. But they love a different Big Ten team even more. The Oregon Ducks moved into the top spot of that metric, followed by Texas — which Ohio State already beat. The Buckeyes are third.

Future opponents notably in the top 25: No. 7 Penn State, No. 24 Illinois.

A reminder on what FPI is from ESPN: “The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

The Buckeyes are currently second in the ESPN SP+ ratings, down one spot to make room for new No. 1 Oregon. They have an offensive rating of 37.0, ninth nationally, to go with an 11.1 defensive rating, second nationally, and a 0.2 special team rating, 13th nationally.

The numbers say Ohio State is currently projected to finish with a record of 10.8-1.8, meaning the model expects the Buckeyes to finish at least 10-2 but is leaning toward an 11-1 record.

Here are the numbers on what ESPN FPI says about Ohio State two weeks into the season:

Chance to go undefeated:

Last week: 11.6%
This week: 10.5%

Chance to win the Big Ten

Last week: 34.8%
This week: 29.8%

Chance to make the College Football Playoff:

Last week: 81.9%
This week: 83%

Chance to make the national championship game:

Last week: 25.3%
This week: 27.1%

Chance to win the national championship game:

Last week: 13.7%
This week: 14.9%