What advanced metrics say about Ohio State after nonconference slate

COLUMBUS — Ohio State was No. 3 in ESPN’s FPI metric following its season-opening win over Texas to open the season. The Buckeyes stayed at that third spot following the win over Grambling State last week.

But now the Buckeyes have moved up to No. 2 in the ESPN metric; they passed the Texas Longhorns to become No. 2 in the latest update following Week 3 action. Texas fell all the way down to No. 6, behind Oregon at No. 1, Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia and USC.

Future Ohio State opponents notably in the top 25: No. 7 Penn State, No. 10 Michigan and No. 23 Illinois.

A reminder on what FPI is from ESPN: “The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

The Buckeyes are currently third in the ESPN SP+ ratings, down one spot to make room for new No. 1 Penn State and No. 2 Oregon, which fell a spot. They have an offensive rating of 37.3, ninth nationally, to go with an 11.1 defensive rating, second nationally, and a 0.2 special team rating, 13th nationally.

The numbers say Ohio State is currently projected to finish with a record of 10.6-1.9, meaning the model expects the Buckeyes to finish at least 10-2 but is leaning toward an 11-1 record.

Here are the numbers on what ESPN FPI says about Ohio State two weeks into the season:

Chance to go undefeated:

Last week: 10.5%
This week: 9.2%

Chance to win the Big Ten

Last week: 29.8%
This week: 25.3%

Chance to make the College Football Playoff:

Last week: 83%
This week: 77.4%

Chance to make the national championship game:

Last week: 27.1%
This week: 23.6%

Chance to win the national championship game:

Last week: 14.9%
This week: 13.7%