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Advanced numbers adjust after Buckeyes beatdown of Washington

Spencer-Holbrookby: Spencer Holbrook09/29/25SpencerHolbrook
Kenyatta Jackson by © Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Ohio State defensive end Kenyatta Jackson (© Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

COLUMBUS — Yet again, the Ohio State football team is second in the ESPN Football Power Index after another week of college football.

Yes, the Buckeyes stayed behind the Oregon Ducks in ESPN’s signature power ratings system, ahead of the rest of the top five that is rounded out by Alabama, Texas and Indiana. The Hoosiers moved up a spot as the Georgia Bulldogs fell down out of the top five following their loss to Alabama.

A reminder on what FPI is from ESPN: “The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

The Buckeyes are currently third in the ESPN SP+ ratings, down one spot to make room for new No. 1 Penn State and No. 2 Oregon, which fell a spot. They have an offensive rating of 37.3, ninth nationally, to go with an 11.1 defensive rating, second nationally, and a 0.2 special team rating, 13th nationally.

The numbers say Ohio State is currently projected to finish with a record of 11.1-1.4, meaning the model is leaning toward an 11-1 record for the Buckeyes at the end of the regular season.

Here are the numbers on what ESPN FPI says about Ohio State five weeks — and four games — into the season:

Chance to go undefeated:

Last week: 9.2%
This week: 15.8%

Chance to win the Big Ten

Last week: 25.3%
This week: 30.5%

Chance to make the College Football Playoff:

Last week: 77.4%
This week: 87.2%

Chance to make the national championship game:

Last week: 23.6%
This week: 28.9%

Chance to win the national championship game:

Last week: 13.7%
This week: 17.0%