Jhop's Take: Panic Time for Oregon and the Pac-12?

On3 imageby:Justin Hopkins06/30/22

Well. Here we go.

If reports are true, I have to applaud USC and UCLA for being pro-active and putting the rivalry aside for the betterment of their programs. If they were truly the ones to reach out to the Big Ten about joining, it’s really the correct move.

Let’s be real, college football has been and will continue to head towards super conferences. We all know it’s coming. As soon as Texas and Oklahoma made the move to the SEC, the wheels were set in motion. Whatever ‘Alliance’ the Pac-12 and Big Ten had are now dead.

None of this moves quickly, and often most of the discussions are kept private until it’s too far to be stopped. I’m betting this deal is done in principle already. (Good ol’ boy handshakes) What’s next is just a formality.

And also, this isn’t George Kliavkoff’s fault. He was dealt this mess by the ignorance of Larry Scott sinking the Pac-12 from the last several years into terrible media contracts and television rights. The Pac-12 has been behind and falling further behind for years and his hands were tied the day he took the job.

So what’s to make of this?

This thing could go a lot of directions. Here’s how I see it.

USC and UCLA Join the Big Ten, what’s next?

Well, for starters before I ramble on, just keep in mind I’m not really going to dig into the fine print and details that perhaps Dougts or others might. (no disrespect intended) In fact I’m going to wager some of the smaller details won’t end up mattering.

If they move on to the Big Ten, can the Pac-12 be salvaged? (more than likely when they move)

Short answer here is pretty much, no chance. Those are the cornerstone programs in your best media market. You can’t just add a San Diego State and Boise State and get back to 12.

Why even bother to be honest? If you look at the landscape now, the outside conferences already have a tough enough time getting teams into the CFB playoff as it is. And let’s be real, that’s the goal here. Winning.

If USC and UCLA do join the Big-Ten, that ends the Pac-12. I’m pretty certain of this. I don’t really see merging with the Big-12 being a viable option. Sure it could happen. And logistically trips to Texas and Oklahoma make way more sense than the cross country trips to Rutgers and Maryland for basketball and baseball games.

But this is about money, not about common sense. Not about practicality.

So the Pac-12 dies. What does Oregon do?

I think Oregon is one of the only programs in the conference with multiple options. They are a national brand. One of the top brands in all of college football. Oregon is a hot commodity. Additionally Oregon is also competitive in most major sports. They aren’t ‘dead weight’ in the non-football sports.

Oregon is going to be attractive.

The problem for them is, who else is?

If you want to join the SEC or Big Ten, you probably need to bring someone else with you. USC and UCLA were smart and said ‘hey we’re in this together.’

Rob Mullens can not afford to sit idle here. In fact, he’s already behind at this point.

Like USC and UCLA, Oregon probably needs to put aside its rivalry with Washington for the betterment of their universities. But is Washington attractive enough to either of those conferences? That’s really the biggest question.

I don’t see anyone else in the conference being any more attractive to any of the conferences. Maybe Stanford? Maybe?

Not Cal, not Oregon State, not ASU, not Utah.

Oregon has an attractive brand. And I’m guessing with this move in the works and likely nearly done, Oregon is fielding inquiries already.

My first choice would be to join the SEC if you’re Oregon. From a revenue standpoint it’s the best option. For recruiting purposes, it’s great. But you need a buddy. That’s still the hang up.

Can you wiggle into the Big Ten with USC and UCLA? This makes a ton of sense because let’s say you bring Washington with you, at least then you have four teams in your region for competition. A true Big Ten West.

At the moment, from a logistics standpoint, it makes the most sense and keeps Oregon in the game.

Is going independent the move here?

I will argue that Oregon is one of the few programs in the country that could afford to do this. They have the following, the brand, the success to make this move. But it’s also not without real risk.

It’s served Notre Dame pretty well. They’ve been able to make multiple college football appearances.

I think Oregon could do the same. And with today’s multitude of streaming services, I think it might be easier than ever to find a lucrative media deal somewhere. Again, Oregon can lean on its national brand.

You could feast on whatever’s left of the Pac-12 for most of your games and find a few ‘big’ games to boost your resume.

While this might seem like the most radical option, it also could be the most lucrative.

But one thing is for certain, Oregon can’t afford to sit around and ‘react.’ Not with this. Time is ticking and Rob Mullens probably needs to cancel his travel plans for the month of July.

This is absolutely a pivotal time for the Oregon program.

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