Oregon Ranks Inside Top Five of Annual Blue-Chip Ratio

Every year, college football becomes more about the Jimmy’s and the Joe’s than the X’s and O’s. In other words, winning hinges more on the players you have on your roster than the plays any one coach draws up.
On Thursday, CBS’ Bud Elliott released his annual blue-chip ratio, which measures the college football teams that have a realistic shot to win a national championship. The ratio does not account for transfers.
Dan Lanning‘s Oregon Ducks ranked inside the top-five of the sport, boasting a blue-chip ratio of 78%. That’s a two-percent increase from last year’s 76%.
Since Lanning took over as head coach ahead of the 2022 season, the Ducks have signed two top-five classes (2024, 2025), one top-ten class (2023) and one top-15 class (2022).
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Oregon’s head coach has continued to raise the recruiting standard in Eugene, picking up from where his predecessor Mario Cristobal left off. Oregon’s 2024 recruiting class, which was ranked No. 3 nationally, is the highest-rated class in program history.
Additional context on the blue-chip ratio
“To win the national championship, college football teams need to sign more four- and five-star recruits than two- and three-star players over the previous four recruiting classes. hat’s it — that’s the threshold. This has held true for every modern national champion. And while recruiting rankings aren’t perfect, they are extremely effective — especially when taken in the aggregate. And they are only getting better with the advancements in technology and data. A decade ago, for instance, it was not uncommon for about half of first-round picks to have been four- or five-stars. Now? It’s routinely 80%+.”
For reference, last year’s national champion, Ohio State, boasted a 90% blue-chip ratio. The year before that, the national champion Michigan Wolverines had a 54% blue-chip ratio. Oregon is right on pace with the 2022 national champion Georgia Bulldogs, who had a 77% blue-chip ratio.
Full 2025 Blue-Chip Ratio Rankings
*Denotes 2024-2025 College Football Playoff Participant
- Alabama 89%
- T1 Ohio State 89%*
- Georgia 84%*
- Texas A&M 82%
- Oregon 78%*
- Texas 78%*
- LSU 73%
- Notre Dame 73%*
- Oklahoma 70%
- Penn State 68%*
- Miami 64%
- Florida 64%
- Auburn 64%
- Michigan 57%
- USC 57%
- Clemson 55%*
- Tennessee 54%*
- Florida State 54%