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Predicting the Initial CFB Playoff Top Ten

Oregon Duck Washingtonby: Justin Hopkins10/31/23

We are just a couple of hours out from the first release of the CFB playoff rankings for the 2023 season. This is one of the few times where it feels like it could be a number of different schools getting that top slot and the top four could also be mixed up.

Furthermore where the Ducks land is anyone’s guess right now. This feels like one of those years an eight team playoff might have been ideal. But it’s too late now.

As you know I published my top ten rankings yesterday. And I’m certain the committees rankings tonight will be wrong. My top five were: Georgia, FSU, Michigan, Washington and Oregon in that order.

Here is my best guess as to how it will look later tonight.

  1. Ohio State
  2. Georgia
  3. Florida State
  4. Washington
  5. Michigan
  6. Oregon
  7. Texas
  8. Alabama
  9. Oklahoma
  10. Ole Miss

Should Oregon end up at 6, that should be enough to take care of itself. Ohio State and Michigan will play each other, possibly even twice. Just that right there alone will be enough to give Oregon an opening. Should the Ducks and Huskies win out, you’ll see the two in a neutral field rematch in Las Vegas for the Pac-12 CCG. Again that’s going to be enough for the Ducks to push into that top four as well, given a win.

Should Oregon fall below the No. 6 spot, well it could certainly get a little more dicey. Of course it would depend on who is ahead of them. Should Texas be ranked ahead of Oregon that could get tricky. They have an easy remaining schedule and a rematch and possible win over Oklahoma would likely cement them in the top four at seasons end.

Again all of these scenarios basically reliant on all teams winning out, which statistically isn’t all that likely. It is 100-percent impossible with the fact Michigan and Ohio State meet up in a few weeks.

I can’t imagine Bama being ranked ahead of Oregon but that also presents a unique challenge. The assumption being Bama and Georgia would meet up in the SEC CCG and who knows what that outcome would mean. We’ve seen the committee keep that SEC loser in the top four before.

Ideally, Oregon gets that No. 6 spot with the exact teams I have listed ahead of them. They can be in any order, but the opportunity for Oregon to advance is 100-percent certain. They could beat Washington (potentially) and either one of Michigan or Ohio State (the loser) drops below.

Let’s hope we see some variation of my top six listed above tonight.

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