Stat Check: Key Indicators for Oregon & Minnesota

The 8-1 Oregon Ducks take on the 6-3 Minnesota Golden Gophers this Friday night at Autzen Stadium in Eugene. This is a good opportunity for Oregon to spread their wings on offense, but that could largely depend on who is healthy for the Ducks and what the weather looks like.

What can we expect after two nasty games that were mired in rain, wind, and physical football? Right now, the weather reports are looking favorable, with no rain forecasted for Friday. So what benchmarks should we be looking for from Oregon in this game? What key indicators do the Ducks need to hit to guarantee a victory? Let’s find out.

Keep Dante Moore Upright – 2 or fewer sacks

This might be the most important stat of this game. Minnesota is the most prolific team that Oregon has faced in terms of sacks this season. They’re currently ranked 4^th in the country with 32 total sacks for the year. That’s better than Indiana (#9), who has 31, or Iowa and Penn State who are both tied for 79^th and have 17 on the season.

We all remember how the Indiana game went, with the Hoosiers getting to Dante Moore 6 times and completely disrupting the Oregon offense. The Ducks cannot allow that to happen again. They must limit the number of sacks that Moore takes to 2 or fewer in this game.

It’s important to note that in their three losses, the Gophers only had 5 total sacks. Ohio State did not give up a single sack in their 42-3 victory over Minnesota. Most of the Gopher’s sacks came against Rutgers (7), Nebraska (9), and Michigan State (7).

Score a Touchdown in the First Quarter

In all three losses for the Golden Gophers, the opponent put up at least one score in the first quarter.  Cal threw a touchdown pass with 5:18 left in the first. Ohio State got 7 points on the ground as the first quarter was expiring. Iowa scored right off the rip on the first possession with a 2-yard run by Mark Gronowski (where have we seen that before?)

In all three games, the opponent got going offensively in the first quarter and never really looked back. Iowa was leading 31-0 at halftime. Ohio State scored 3 touchdowns in the first two quarters and Cal was up 10-7 at the half.

Oregon needs to have that same kind of success. The last couple weeks the Ducks have really struggled to get going early. They have a combined 2 points in the first quarter between the Wisconsin and Iowa games.

To be fair, the weather played a role in that. The Ducks were also missing three of their best offensive weapons against the Hawkeyes. Still, they need to find a way to make it work against Minnesota. Whether it’s leaning on the run early, or finding success with one of their other receivers, they need to figure it out.

Hold Minnesota to under 150 yards Passing

This Minnesota team has an anemic offense. ESPN ranks them 81^st in offensive efficiency. They average 203 yards through the air and only 110 yards on the ground, which is near the very bottom of the FBS. Four times this season they failed to reach 100 yards rushing, and two of those games were wins.

If Minnesota has any hope of winning this game, they will need to find success through the air. In their 6 wins this season they averaged 237 yards passing and 128 yards rushing. In their losses they averaged 136 yards passing and only 74 yards on the ground.

Ohio State held them to only 94 yards through the air and 68 yards on the ground. They were completely shut down in that game. The Buckeyes did it with only one sack and zero turnovers, so I believe Oregon can have similar success.

The Ducks need to stomp on the Gophers early on both sides of the ball and remove any hope they have of competing in this game.  

Oregon put up 200+ yards on the ground

We want to see the Ducks’ passing attack take flight, like they did against Rutgers. This could depend entirely on who is available in this game. If they are without Dakorien Moore, Kenyon Sadiq, and Gary Bryant Jr, we could see Oregon lean into the run once again.

Minnesota doesn’t have a defense like Iowa, but they’re no pushover. They currently have the 21^st best defense in terms of overall yards per game, with 311 allowed. They’re also 21^st in yards allowed on the ground, with 108.1 per game. Their weakness is passing, ranked 46^th for 203 per game.

So, the opportunity is there for Oregon to work in some other receivers, but the prudent decision would be to go with your strength…. The run game. The Ducks are ranked 6^th in the country with 239.7 yards per game on the ground. They have PFF’s 5^th and 9^th best graded running backs in the FBS in Jordon Davison and Noah Whittington.

While it’s key to attack Minnesota’s secondary, there is no reason to go away from what worked against Wisconsin and Iowa. Use your elite backs to open things up for the passing game. Since the Indiana loss, the Oregon running back room has put up 351 yards against Rutgers, 227 yards against Wisconsin, and 215 yards against Iowa.

The best case would be another balanced attack like they had against Rutgers, with 335 yards through the air and 415 on the ground… although we probably can’t expect them to be quite that prolific. 200 yards on the ground should secure a win.