Stat Check: Key Indicators for Oregon & USC

The Trojan War won’t be fought at the gates of Troy, or the LA Memorial Coliseum on Saturday. It will be fought in Eugene, Oregon at the friendly confines of Autzen Stadium, where the #7 Ducks will face the #15 USC Trojans in a very likely winner-take-all matchup.

The weather is currently forecasted to be a high of 51 degrees and party cloudy. Perfect for a day of football. So with the rain and the wind not likely to show, what are the key stats and benchmarks that Oregon needs to hit in order to come away from this game with a win?  

For the Ducks and the Trojans, the playoff starts now.

Oregon Hold USC Below 100 yards Rushing

In the leadup to this game against USC, the most common talking point has been the passing attack. The matchup between Oregon’s vaunted #1 secondary and USC’s explosive receivers. This is obviously the most intriguing battle that will happen on Saturday, but it might not be the most important.

In the two losses that USC has faced this season, their passing was above their season average. They had 364 yards through the air against Illinois and 328 yards in the game against Notre Dame. Their average on the season is 298.1, which is the 10^th best in the country.

So why did those two teams walk away with a win if USC was able to overperform through the air?  

They were held in check on the ground. Between those two games, USC only averaged 97 yards rushing. That’s 100 fewer yards than they average on the season, and 117 fewer than they average in wins. The Trojans also averaged 3 fewer carries in those games.

Oregon has to stop the run and make USC throw.

Jayden Maiava Complete fewer than 65% of Throws

This is where the previous benchmark on the ground and the critical matchup in the secondary come together. While you have to contain USC’s rushing attack, you also have to pressure Jayden Maiava and force him into bad throws. In the two losses he averaged 61% on his completions. The Ducks need to replicate that success if they want to win.

The benefit of stopping the run is that you force USC to throw more. In wins the Trojans only attempted 29 throws per game, but in the losses they attempted 42.5 passes. That’s a massive difference in the number of times that Maiava is dropping back and giving Oregon’s defensive line an opportunity to apply pressure and force him into a bad throw.

In both of the losses USC had a pass block grade from PFF that was below 36. That’s bad.

On the season Maiava is average just under 3 seconds in Time to Throw (TTT). Against Illinois he averaged 2.84 seconds, and in the game versus the Irish he had 3.03 seconds of TTT. Oregon’s opponents this season are averaging 2.7 seconds TTT.

Ted Leroux from Scoop Duck covered this well in this article.

Oregon Gain 200+ yards on the Ground

This feels like a key stat every week, but it’s truly critical against USC. Oregon can slow the game down, control the clock, and impose their will on the Trojan’s defensive line. In both losses this year they gave up over 170 yards rushing.

The Irish put up 306 yards on the ground and averaged 7 yards per carry in their win. Oregon will need to have similar success if they want to come away from this one victorious, and they have the backs to do it. Noah Whittington and Jordon Davison have been excellent this year.

Currently Davison is the third highest ranked back in the country, according to PFF, and Whittington is the 7^th. They’re averaging 6.8 yards per attempt and 8.2 respectively. They have been running roughshod over much better run defenses than USC, who currently has the 63^rd best in the country. The Trojans are allowing 145.8 yards per game on the ground.

Oregon will need to eclipse that.

Feed Sadiq 8+ Receptions

With a high probability that Oregon will be without star-wideout Dakorien Moore and reliable second receiver Gary Bryant Jr, the Ducks will need to lean once more on their tight ends. Will Stein must replicate what he did against Minnesota and get the ball to Kenyon Sadiq.

Last week Dante Moore linked up with Sadiq for 8 receptions and 96 yards with a touchdown. Oregon found a number of ways to scheme Sadiq open against the Golden Gophers, and it was extremely effective. He had arguably his best game as a Duck and he showed the explosiveness and playmaking that Duck fans have been yearning for all season.

It can’t just be Sadiq though. Part of that potent passing attack last week against Minnesota was Jamari Johnson, who is a massive target for Moore as well. He had 4 receptions for 57 yards and Oregon will need to find ways to use him as well against USC.

Combined the two tight ends had 12 receptions and 153 yards against the Gophers and Oregon will need similar production with so many receivers out against USC.