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Oregon

The Big Ten Stretch Run is Upon Us

by: Ted Leroux9 hours ago
Big Ten by Birm -- Lettermen Row

It doesn’t seem long ago that we were in the midst of fall camp in Eugene, wondering what Oregon’s encore performance would look like in its second year in the Big Ten. Now, all of a sudden, it’s November, and the sprint to the finish in America’s premier national conference is here. With just four weeks remaining, this feels like the calm before the storm — the perfect moment to reset before things start to get wild.

THE ELITE

It seems like with each passing year, college football becomes more balanced — yet one thing remains constant — the National Championship contenders still live in the Big Ten.

Ohio State and Indiana have cemented themselves as programs built to be the last ones standing, and two big reasons why are elite quarterback play and dominant defense. Julian Sayin and Fernando Mendoza currently sit first and second in the Heisman Trophy odds, leading offenses that both rank in the top three nationally in yards per play.

While everyone loves explosive offense, the Buckeyes and Hoosiers continue to give meaning to the old mantra, “Defense wins championships.” Ohio State and Indiana hold the top two spots in the nation in Defensive F+ Rating and rank as the stingiest Power Four defenses in points allowed per game.

These two teams appear to be on a collision course for Indianapolis — and perhaps a third straight national championship for the Big Ten.

THE MIDDLE

When you get past Oregon — which currently sits in a tier of its own — you dive into a meaty middle of the Big Ten race.

Seven teams enter November with records of 7–2, 6–2, or 6–3, and there’s no shortage of possible outcomes for this group. But it’s the four teams with two losses that are looking to eat everything left on the table in hopes of joining the big boys in the College Football Playoff conversation come December.

Michigan, USC, and Washington all appear in this week’s AP Top 25, while Iowa holds the first spot just outside the rankings. Each still has a path to climb higher, but the margin for error is razor thin.

Michigan has a chance to beat Ohio State for a fifth straight year — a win that would undoubtedly catapult the Wolverines into playoff contention — but youth and injuries remain challenges down the stretch for the Maize and Blue.

USC faces back-to-back tests, with Iowa visiting Los Angeles before the Trojans travel up the coast to face Oregon. If USC can finish 10–2, they’ll have earned every bit of it, though their inconsistent defense continues to raise concern.

Washington’s schedule is far more manageable leading up to what could be a playoff play-in game against Oregon in the final weekend of the regular season. The Huskies rely heavily on their trio of Demond Williams, Jonah Coleman, and Denzel Boston — when that group is rolling, they’re as dynamic as any offense in the nation. But when one of them struggles, things can unravel quickly, as they did earlier this year against Michigan.

Like USC, Iowa faces a two-week gauntlet that will define its postseason hopes. The Hawkeyes host Oregon this Saturday before heading west to face USC. True to form, Iowa is doing Iowa things on defense — allowing just 234 yards per game, second-best in the country — and the offense has added a new wrinkle with quarterback Mark Gronowski’s dynamic running ability. The big question is whether the Hawkeyes can win a game played outside the phone booth of defense and special teams they typically thrive in.

THE BOTTOM

How many of these teams will win a Big Ten game?

Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Purdue have combined to go 0–22 in conference play this season, each facing its own unique set of struggles and setbacks.

Fortunately for Penn State and Michigan State, one of them is guaranteed to break through — the two meet on November 15th. Beyond that, however, there are no other head-to-head matchups among this winless group, leaving little room for optimism down the stretch.

The finishes in Madison and East Lansing will be especially intriguing, particularly regarding their head coaches. Both Jonathan Smith and Luke Fickell have found themselves at the center of hot-seat rumors, with growing frustration among their fanbases. Yet, buyouts north of $20 million — coupled with an already crowded coaching market — complicate the possibility of either program making a move this offseason.

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