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ESPN FPI drops Penn State and reduces the Lions' Big Ten, CFP title odds after FIU win

Greg Pickelby: Greg Pickel09/07/25GregPickel
NCAA Football: Florida International at Penn State
Penn State Nittany Lions wide receiver Trebor Peña (8) pushes through the Florida International Panthers defense during the third quarter at Beaver Stadium. (Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images)

Penn State is not the only Power Five football team who struggled with a lesser opponent on Saturday. But, it’s also not one of the runs that crushed its competition in Week 2. And, that has the Lions dropping a bit in ESPN’s Football Power Index ahead of Week 3. First, some background on what that is for those who might be unfamiliar with it:

“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

Head coach James Franklin’s team fell from No. 5 to No. 7 in the latest update. The Lions’ long-term outlook in 2025 took a hit, as well. Here are how things changed from Week 2 to Week 3:

Regular season record projection: 10.3-2.1 ➡️ 9.9-2.4

Win-out percentage: 5.9 percent ➡️ 3 percent

Win the Big Ten percentage: 24.2 percent ➡️ 14.2 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 58.5 percent ➡️ 54.5 percent

Chances of making the title game: 14 percent ➡️ 12.1. percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 7.3 percent ➡️ 6.3 percent

Assessing the rest of the 2025 Penn State season

What changed? It’s obvious that the computer data system was not impressed with how Penn State performed throughout a sluggish win at Beaver Stadium. Beyond that, the Lions’ White Out game opponent, Oregon, shot up six spots to No. 1. Another team PSU will play this fall, Ohio State, held firm at No. 3. And, Alabama and USC also moved up after wins to push Franklin’s team down toward the back half of the top 10.

The good news for Penn State is that the data changes weekly and so do the rankings. A strong performance against Villanova won’t hurt matters moving forward. But, it goes without saying that the outcome of the Sept. 27 meeting with the Ducks will tell us a lot of what we need to know about this team moving forward. The FPI still favors the Lions to win that game. It also projects them to be favored i every upcoming matchup but the Ohio State game. That does make us question the updated win total projection, of course. But, that’s where their data says after Week 2.

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