Scouting the Spread: Penn State football favored in Outback Bowl clash with Arkansas
Penn State Nittany Lions football is a 3.5-point favorite for its Outback Bowl contest against Arkansas as of Monday morning, according to BetMGM.
The Nittany Lions enter this game at 7-5, while the Razorbacks come in at 8-4.
Both teams began the season with nice unbeaten runs. Penn State started 5-0 and Arkansas got off to a 4-0 start, but both programs hit choppy waters thereafter.
The Razorbacks finished their regular season 7-4-1 against the spread, while the Nittany Lions finished 7-5.
The teams have one common opponent on the season: Auburn, an SEC foe for the Razorbacks which made the trip to Happy Valley in nonconference play.
Penn State took care of the Tigers, 28-20, while Arkansas suffered a 38-23 loss.
The case for Penn State to cover
The defensive side of the ball is always the starting point for the Nittany Lions.
Penn State games have gone under the Vegas point total in nine of the Nittany Lions’ 12 contests to this point in the season.
Penn State’s defense ranks seventh nationally, allowing only 16.75 points per game. The Razorbacks have a solid defense in their own right, allowing 24 points on average. But it’s not on the same level.
Penn State’s defense ranks ninth in the country, allowing 4.6 yards per play. The Razorbacks come in at 5.4, which is 63rd in the nation.
That defense is complemented by a punting unit that is among the best in the country.
The Nittany Lions are 4-3 against the spread when they enter a game as the favorites.
They can also rely on a certain degree of bowl experience that the Razorbacks can’t. Penn State decided not to accept any bowl invitations last year, but had gone bowling in the previous six seasons.
This is the first bowl game for the Razorbacks since the 2016 Belk Bowl, which they lost to Virginia Tech.
The case for Arkansas to cover
The Razorback offense ranks among the top-30 nationally in total yardage and the top-45 in points scored, averaging 31.5 per game.
The disparity in offensive efficiency between the Nittany Lions and Arkansas is wide.
Arkansas averaged 6.1 yards per play against FBS opposition in the regular season to rank 31st nationally. Penn State averaged 4.9, which is 102nd.
The Razorbacks lean heavily on their running game, which averaged just shy of five yards per carry during the regular season. Four players on the offense rushed for at least 498 yards. Arkansas ran the ball on about 64 percent of its snaps on offense.
As a result, the Hogs rarely turned the ball over.
Arkansas doesn’t do anything spectacular on the defensive side of the ball, but the Razorbacks are solid there as well. Tre Williams gives them a nice pass-rushing presence, with six sacks in 10 games this season.
Additionally, it’s worth pointing out that the Nittany Lions are dealing with turnover within their coaching staff.
Defensive coordinator Brent Pry left to take the head coaching job at Virginia Tech, leaving James Franklin with a significant vacancy to fill. It’s unclear who will call plays on defense for Penn State in the bowl game.
Safeties coach Anthony Poindexter is reportedly a candidate to be the head coach at Virginia, which could force the Nittany Lions to replace another key assistant.
The Arkansas coaching staff remains intact, to this point.
