Penn State-Ole Miss Predictions: What should fans expect in Atlanta?

Penn State will wrap up its 2023 season Saturday when the Lions take on Ole Miss in the Chik-fil-A Peach Bowl. This will be the first time the Nittany Lions and Rebels have ever faced each other on the gridiron.

Under head coach Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss will be playing in its second New Year’s Six Bowl in the past three seasons. In 2022, the faced Baylor in the Sugar Bowl, losing 21-7. For Penn State, this will be its fifth NY6 appearance in the past eight seasons under head coach James Franklin. The Nittany Lions are 3-1 in their previous four appearances, most recently defeating Utah in the Rose Bowl to finish off the 2022 season.

How do we expect Saturday’s game to play out? Our staff offers up its predictions below.

Nate Bauer (Season: 11-1)

Every nonconference game on the Penn State football schedule, every season, brings variables of unfamiliarity into play for making picks. A contrast to teams that regularly face the Nittany Lions annually, and the shared history that often provides a window into how the game will play out regardless of rollover that takes place each offseason, the one-offs are just a different breed altogether.

And in facing Ole Miss on Saturday in the Peach Bowl, that sentiment holds especially for Penn State. The SEC opponent has had a good season, running in parallel to the Nittany Lions’ by knocking off all but the two juggernaut opponents on the slate. The Rebels’ offense amassed an excellent season, albeit coming up woefully short in those two losses to Alabama and Georgia, also in parallel with Penn State. 

But those issues aren’t top of mind for a Nittany Lion team that is, in every sense, in flux coming into the game. How will the Nittany Lions respond to the absence of defensive architect Manny Diaz against that quality Ole Miss offense? Is the turned corner Penn State’s offense against Rutgers and Michigan State real or fool’s gold? And, for personnel that will clearly feature amended rotations, at minimum, given NFL draft statuses of multiple players on both sides of the ball, how will those limitations impact this team?

My expectation is for Penn State’s defense to perform similarly to the Ohio State and Michigan games. Not perfect, per se, but more than adequate to produce a win with the right support on offense and special teams. And, for a Nittany Lion offense entering bowl workouts with the momentum of an explosive, 42-0 win against the Spartans, the opportunity to continue that trajectory exists against an Ole Miss defense that has significant vulnerabilities.

Penn State: 27
Ole Miss: 23

Thomas Frank Carr (11-1)

Opt-outs always muddy the picture when predicting how a team will play in a bowl game. If both teams were at full strength, Penn State’s overall talent and style of play match up with Ole Miss quite well. But Chop Robinson is opting out, there is a prospect of playing without the team’s top two corners, and both tackles will likely be limited in their participation during the game. Things even out quickly. 

However, Penn State’s strength this season is what they can do up front to stop the run and put teams in long third-down situations. That unit remains largely intact, especially where it counts at linebacker and defensive tackle. The team is talented enough to absorb the loss of Robinson and the limited play of Curtis Jacobs and Adisa Isaac. 

Ole Miss is a run-first team that tries to avoid the pure drop-back passing game. If Penn State can keep them off balance and off schedule, they should be able to contain the Ole Miss attack. However, if Lane Kiffen decides to attack Penn State’s corners, we may be in for an illuminating afternoon about the team’s cornerback play in 2024. 

On the other side, Penn State’s Drew Shelton has been preparing for this moment for two seasons. The 6-5 tackle needs to be ready as he presumably fills in for Olu Fashanu. Caedan Wallace’s participation in the game will be another story. Wallace has enough film out there to get drafted, but does he want one more game to prove something to the NFL? Either way, expect a healthy dose of J’ven Williams, where things get interesting. 

Besides that, Penn State’s offense should come back intact. This unit must play like the group that finished the season under Ja’Juan Seider and Ty Howle. Ole Miss’s defense will try the same tricks that Penn State has seen all season to stop the running game and keep a lid on deep passes. The defense may be vulnerable for the first time this season, so playing less than an adequate game isn’t sustainable. Penn State must put up points and show they have the dynamism to keep up with Ole Miss. 

Despite the questions, I still like Penn State in this game. I’m assuming the progress we saw from the offense late in the season will sustain, thanks to the extra preparation and development time during bowl practice.

Penn State: 31
Ole Miss: 28

Matt Herb (Season: 12-0)

The question that dogged Penn State throughout the regular season — can it create enough big plays in the passing game to beat the best opponents on its schedule? — continues to loom large heading into the Peach Bowl. The answer against Ohio State and Michigan was a resounding no. The Lions threw for 191 yards vs. the former and 74 vs. the latter. Ole Miss figures to pose a formidable challenge, too. The Rebels allowed only 7.06 yards per passing attempt; among Southeastern Conference teams, only Georgia (5.79), Alabama (6.36) and Missouri (6.98) gave up fewer. Also, Ole Miss surrendered just 14 touchdown passes in 12 games, which was tied with the Crimson Tide for the second-fewest in the SEC.  

Still, Penn State has reason to hope that it’s going to field a more balanced offense than it did in its two losses. Tight end Theo Johnson has chosen to play in what will be his final college game, injured wideout Harrison Wallace III has been seen practicing again ahead of the bowl, and Omari Evans is coming off a game against Michigan State in which he made exactly the sort of play that PSU had been lacking this year, teaming up with Drew Allar for a 60-yard completion to set up a touchdown.  

I could see this game going either way, especially given the number of prominent PSU players who are likely to see less-extensive roles than usual, a list that includes Johnson. During James Franklin’s tenure, the Nittany Lions are 0-3 in bowl games against SEC foes, so that doesn’t bode well either. But at some point, PSU is going to put together a balanced performance on offense against a quality opponent. This weekend would be as good a time as any.

Penn State: 31
Ole Miss: 27

Greg Pickel (Season: 11-1)

Every Penn State bowl game comes with a different excitement level. The Rose Bowl isn’t the Citrus Bowl. The Fiesta isn’t the Citrus, and so on. This year, the Lions have one of the better matchups of bowl season. They avoided a Group of Five foe and instead drew a 10-2 Ole Miss team from the SEC that has an exciting offense, a head coach with a strong personality, and a defense that isn’t overpowering. The game will not be dominated by opt-out losses.

Though, snap counts are in the cards. How will that impact things? Time will tell. But when you look at this matchup, it boils down to a simple question: Can the Penn State defense do enough to slow down the Ole Miss offense? If so, the Lions offense should have no problem scoring enough to win. A shootout would favor the Rebels, though. In the end, Penn State will do enough on both sides of the ball to become the first and only team in college football history to win each New Year’s Six game once.

Penn State: 30
Ole Miss: 24

Ryan Snyder (Season: 10-2)

Penn State is a popular pick nationally heading into Saturday’s game against Ole Miss. The Nittany Lions opened up as 3.5-point favorites when the game was announced on Dec. 3 and has since climbed to 4 or 4.5 at most sportsbooks. Most national experts seem to be leaning towards the Lions.

I think Ole Miss represents the best passing attack Penn State has faced this season, and with cornerback Johnny Dixon not with the team, that’ll force some of the more inexperienced players to step up in a big way. Adisa Isaac and Dani Dennis-Sutton should provide cover for Chop Robinson’s decision to back out. It’s not having Dixon that should concern fans the most.

Defensively, the Rebels allowed an average of 26 points per game against the nine Power Five opponents on their schedule this year. I think that’s a realistic number for Penn State’s offense to hit in this one.

If you want to bet on this game, I think both of these teams can point enough enough points to surpass the 48.5-poiunt total that’s currently available at most sportsbooks. This won’t be the kind of shootout we see in many college games these days, but I think the winner of this game can get into the low 30s.

However, I don’t feel very confident in Penn State covering the spread. I’ll pick the Nittany Lions to win, but I think this spread should be closer to a pick ’em.

Penn State: 31
Ole Miss: 28