Penn State-Ole Miss Matchups: Who will have the edge in Big Ten-SEC battle?
By Greg Pickel
The Peach Bowl hosts No. 10 Penn State and No. 11 Ole Miss for a clash of strengths on Saturday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Nittany Lions are a 3.5-point favorite ahead of kickoff. The betting total over/under is 48.5 points. Both sides fared well in the opt-out department. And each thinks this is as an important game to win.
“There’s a lot to be said that this is the finishing touches of last season, but I think there’s also an opportunity for us to get some momentum from this going into next season, and some of the guys that are going to play bigger roles on Saturday are obviously going to play bigger roles next year,” Penn State coach James Franklin said.
Here’s a closer look at the matchups that will decide the game.
When Penn State has the ball
This is not the matchup that has the eye of most observers. But, it is the side Penn State can find some advantages on. The Lions top-30 rushing offense should be able to find some room to work with opposite the nation’s No. 77 rushing offense in Ole Miss. Co-coordinators Ty Howle and Ja’Juan Seider must not be afraid to go with the run early and often before attacking a Mississippi pass defense that barely ranks inside of the top 60. The Rebels will be without star pass rusher Cedric Johnson. That hurts a pass rush that was not bad this year but not exemplary. But Jared Ivey will still play, and he’s been a force with 5.5 sacks.
Either way, Penn State quarterback Drew Allar should have time to throw regardless of how much or even if Olu Fashanu plays. There will be holes on the ground. Put both things together, and we see a slight edge for the Lions here. Is it a big one? No. But did we learn this year that this offense can exploit average defenses? Yes. Another sneaky battle to watch here is Ole Miss’ turnover prowess versus how well Penn State protects the ball.
EDGE: Penn State
When the Lions are on defense
The nation’s No. 1 statistical defense will not have standout coordinator Manny Diaz at the controls and will also be without top pass rusher Chop Robinson. Ole Miss, on the other hand, has its full arsenal of weapons available. Quarterback Jaxson Dart leads the SEC team’s uptempo offense. He has completed 65 percent of his passes this season for 2,985 yards, 20 touchdowns, and has only thrown five interceptions. He also has seven scores on the ground. Running back Quinshon Judkins has 1,052 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns to date. Three receivers have more than 40 catches. Jordan Watkins owns a team-high 53 for 741 yards and three scores. Dayton Wade is next on the list with 52 catches for 769 yards plus four touchdowns. And, Tre Harris has 47 for a team-high 851 yards and eight touchdowns.
How things play out in this department will decide the contest, in all likelihood. Penn State has a few players likely to be on snap counts on this side of the ball. Will the young players thrust into bigger roles step up? It will be a big factor in this matchup. We’re going to side with the top defense in the country. But this gap is extremely small with everything going on. Stopping the Rebels will be no cakewalk.
EDGE: Penn State
Odds and ends
–Ole Miss is not automatic in the field goal department. It was 15 of 20 on placement kicks this year.
–The Lions must be mindful of blocked kicks. Ole Miss defensive tackle Zxavian Harris has two already this year.
–Penn State has an edge in the punting department.
Final word on Penn State-Ole Miss
This is a legitimately strong postseason matchup befitting of a New Year’s Six bowl game. Penn State will try to keep the ball away from Ole Miss’ fast-paced offense. The Rebels will try to tire out the Nittany Lions defense with tempo in an attempt to stay on the field and outscore Penn State. In this clash of styles, whoever executes theirs the best and makes the fewest mistakes will win. That’s true in every game. It is especially the case, however, in this one.
