Covering the Tracks: Purdue-Illinois

Purdue-Illinois from a gambling perspective

Recap

Column takes its first loss of the year and moves to 5-1 as Purdue fails to cover the
spread by 1.5 points against Notre Dame but the total went over by a mile. We also cashed a
nice +500 and -165 as Nitro Tuggle and Jadarian Price both scored touchdowns.

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 8:00 am on 10/3/25 via BetMGM:
Current spread: Purdue +9.5 (Opened Purdue +10.5).
Moneyline: Purdue +290, Illinois -375
1H Spread: Purdue +5.5, O/U 27.5
Over/Under: 55.5 (Opened 54.5)

Season Records ATS

Purdue: 2-2 ATS, O/U 1-3
Illinois: 4-1 ATS, O/U 3-2

Betting Percentage Breakdown (AKA, the Splits)

Bets: 35% on Purdue, 76% on over
Money: 27% on Purdue, 58% on over

Executive Summary

Illinois comes into West Lafayette holding the cannon after a 50-49 thriller in Champaign last year. Illinois is fresh off a win against a ranked USC team, while Purdue looks to recalibrate and grow from a Notre Dame loss two weeks ago. The spread moved from 10.5 to 9.5 very quick, but that has not deterred a vast majority of bettors from taking the Illini. Coach Barry Odom’s teams have been very good at covering spreads when they have a rest advantage, while Coach Bret Bielema’s Illinois teams have really struggled covering the spread when at a rest disadvantage. The Illini offense has looked potent against everyone not named IU, so let’s hope their second trip to the State of Indiana goes just as poorly.

Trend Analysis for Notre Dame

· UNLV was 1-2 ATS as a home underdog under Coach Barry Odom.
· UNLV was 6-2 ATS with a rest advantage under Odom.
· Illinois is 3-1 ATS as an away favorite under Coach Bret Bielema.
· Illinois is 15-13-1 ATS after a win under Bielema.
· Illinois is 3-8-1 ATS with a rest disadvantage under Bielema.
· The over was 2-1 when UNLV was a home underdog under Odom.
· The over was 5-3 when UNLV had a rest advantage under Odom.
· The over is 3-1 when Illinois is an away favorite under Bielema.
· The over is 11-17-1 after an Illinois win under Bielema.
· The over is 4-7-1 when Illinois has a rest disadvantage under Bielema.

Miscellaneous Factors

· 50-49. In what was certainly the most exciting Purdue game of last season (and arguably one of the most in all of college football), one of the worst Purdue teams in program history lost an overtime 50-49 thriller to a ranked Illinois team. Why is this a factor? Two reasons. First, this was the Ryan Browne breakout game. Now, I rewatched the tape, and there were a couple very errant throws that probably should have been intercepted by Illinois (but that’s why those guys are playing defense), but Ryan Browne had by far and away his best game as a Boiler. One would hope, and maybe expect, Browne to come out and put on another passing display against a team he has had prior success against. Which leads us to point two. Last year was the first time Bret Bielema beat Purdue (it was a fumble, Purdue should have the win) as the head coach of Illinois. Purdue has somewhat owned Illinois in football, as evidenced by wins even when Hazell was there and a Ryan Walters beat down in 2023. Can Odom continue Boilermaker success against the Illini?

· Rest and Relaxation. Purdue will be coming off a bye week to face Illinois giving the Boilers
the opportunity to rest and get healthy, while also allowing the staff an extra week to prepare for Illinois. Purdue showed some signs of life in the Notre Dame game, but the defense left much to be desired. Can the coaches clean this up in just two weeks? Odom has been very good ATS when he has a rest advantage.

· The Life of a Showgirl. Correlation does not equal causation. But as the saying goes, “once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, and three times is a pattern.” What does that make 9 times? The last 9 times Taylor Swift has released an album the Boilers have lost, with the most recent additions being the 2022 Midnights album on a weekend where Purdue had one of its best chances to beat Wisconsin, but lost, and in 2023 when the 1989 rerelease occurred and the Boilers lost to Nebraska. Will we see a tenth occurrence, or this the end of the streak? I do appreciate Taylor Swift having a relationship to Purdue football through this statistic because maybe, just maybe, my wife will finally have the slightest interest in this column. I doubt it. Onward.

Gambling Analysis

Numbers: The biggest thing that jumps out to me regarding the numbers is the initial jump in
movement by the sportsbooks. This spread opened at 10.5, and then almost immediately
dropped under the football number of 10 to 9.5. Even at 9.5, money has been flowing in on
Illinois with over 70% of the money being bet on the Illini. This bodes well for contrarian
gamblers who also happen to be Purdue fans. I am a little surprised Illinois is getting so much money, but they are coming off an impressive win over USC. How quickly people forget about the performance we saw in Bloomington. The over is also taking on a lot of bets early with over 70% of the bets on the over, however, there is a sharp decline in total money that is on the over, suggesting there may be some sharp movement on the Under. EDGE: Purdue Spread, Under

Trends: The biggest trend indicator here comes down to evaluating Odom’s results when his
team has a rest advantage and Bielema’s results when his team has a rest disadvantage. Odom’s teams have performed extremely well with a rest advantage (as one would slightly expect) suggesting Odom’s ability to gameplan with the extra time and his players’ ability to recharge. Bielema’s teams have struggled with a rest disadvantage (as one would also slightly expect). One thing going for Illinois here: Bielema’s Illinois teams have been very good as away favorites. There is not a superstrong trend one way or the other for totals. Bielema teams have typically seen the over hit when an away favorite, but the under has been more prevalent in games after an Illinois loss and when Illinois has a rest disadvantage. To me, this suggests that when teams are able to prepare for Illinois with extra time, they have shown an ability to limit the Illinois offense. EDGE: Slight lean to Purdue spread, Push, slight lean to Under.

Situation: Illinois comes into this game after a nice situational cover last week over USC.
Illinois took full advantage of the current way of the Big Ten getting a USC team for a noon kick fresh off a late night kick the week prior. Illinois also came off one of the largest ranked team beatdowns I have seen in my lifetime in Bloomington. Now, the perception seems to have shifted quickly after the USC win where the public feels comfortable betting on Illinois again. Purdue, coming off a bye, looked competitive for a little bit against Notre Dame, but the Irish offense eventually proved too potent and the defense really struggled to get stops. The spread was pretty dead on as Notre Dame was able to cover by 1.5 points. The bets on the over seem to suggest either: a) the general public really does not believe in Purdue’s defense or b) the Illinois offense has found its mojo against USC. Either way, this seems to be a good situational spot for the under and the Boilers. This seems like a public overreaction to the Illinois win over USC and the defensive efforts against Notre Dame by the Purdue defense. EDGE: Purdue Spread, Under.

Total Analysis:  The angle on this game for me really comes down to whether or not you trust Odom and his staff to properly prepare a gameplan for Illinois with an extra week to do so. I think they can. Purdue always plays Illinois well, and the trends suggest Odom has a track record of success in this spot. I am a little worried that Illinois has turned over a new leaf after the USC game, but I think so many factors went against USC in that game, particularly body clock (I did bet Illinois, so thank you Illini), that the line is a bit inflated. Combine that with the wonky line movement and the money pouring in on Illinois, and I think Purdue covers. Can Purdue overcome the T-Swift curse? I am cautiously optimistic and will sprinkle accordingly. If the Colts can finally win a week 1 game, why can’t Purdue win this weekend? I will bet Purdue ML accordingly, but the prediction gives Illinois the small win. Illinois 31, Purdue 24.

Official Plays: 2 Units Purdue +9.5, 1 Unit Under 55.5. .25 Units on Purdue +290. 1 Unit
Tuggle over 40.5 receiving yards.

UNIT COUNTER YTD: +3.88 Units (does not include bonus bets unless listed in official
plays)

Bonus Bets: Bonus Bets have been on fire as of late, so let’s keep it going. BetMGM has finally added the first touchdown scorer, so I can speak on that in this column. For Illinois, Luke Altmyer scored first last week, and I think the QB will look to copy those results with a QB read or scramble early. +1300 is great value for a QB that really loves to run the football. For Purdue, Nitro Tuggle was my guy last week, and I am going back to the well. I love his value at +1400 for first, and I am taking him anytime at +200. Tuggle’s receiving yards are also listed at 40.5, I like that over.

Welcome to the 2025 edition of Covering the Tracks.  This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics.  The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information that Vegas and sportsbooks so graciously provide us.  Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game.   For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end.  I use lines provided by BetMGM sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook. Disclaimer for those who gamble: ensure you manage your bankroll effectively, bet responsibly, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.   

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, if Purdue is -4.5 against an opponent, a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 4.5 points.  It is worth noting that the sportsbooks are in the money-making business.  So a spread may not necessarily be an accurate depiction of what the sportsbooks think will happen, but rather, at what spread number can the sportsbook generate action on one side while comfortably limiting their exposure to a big loss.

Odds and How to Read Them: The ability to read odds provides a gambler with insight into how a sportsbook, also known as “Vegas,” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bets will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds mean that to win $10, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are favorable, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for unfavorable odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneyline odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115, then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -4.5 (-4.5 in my example above; obviously, this number would change week to week) or, hypothetically, the other team +4.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to win by five or more.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats the hypothetical team above by 1, Purdue has won the game, but Purdue did not cover.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe fewer than 49 points will be scored and vice versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers who have demonstrated a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbooks use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book usually are -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. To win $10, you need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that would be helpful, please let me know.

MORE: Weekly Word: Purdue vs. Notre Dame, quarterback play and more | Matchup preview: Purdue-Notre Dame | Saturday provides full-circle moment for Purdue’s Joey Tanona in South Bend | Opponent view: Notre Dame | The 3-2-1: Deciphering disconcerting signals, genesis of ‘Nitro,’ maturation of a QB and more | Potential turning into production for Purdue’s Nitro Tuggle | Barry Odom, Purdue brace for test at tradition-rich Notre Dame | First Look: Notre Dame | First and 10: Purdue at Notre Dame