ESPN Matchup Predictor's updated game-by-game picks for Tennessee Football

Updating the ESPN Matchup Predictor’s game-by-game picks for the remainder of the Tennessee Football schedule, after the 15th-ranked Vols beat UAB 56-24 at Neyland Stadium on Saturday:

Syracuse

Before Week 1: Tennessee 88.6% win | Result: Vols 45, Syracuse 26

Joey Aguilar threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns in his Tennessee debut and the Vols rushed for 246 yards as a team in the season-opening win. Braylon Staley caught a 73-yard touchdown pass and all three Tennessee running backs — DeSean Bishop, Peyton Lewis and Star Thomas — had one touchdown each. 

ETSU

Before Week 2: Tennessee 99.0% win | Result: Vols 72, ETSU 17

Tennessee broke modern-day program record for points scored in its 72-17, while also setting the program record for first downs (41) in the win. Tennessee completed 38 of 52 passes for 458 yards and four touchdowns in the win, with Joey Aguilar, Jake Merklinger and George MacIntyre all seeing action. Seven running backs combined for 259 yards and five rushing touchdowns on the day, while 13 receivers caught passes. 

Georgia

Before Week 3: Tennessee 51.5% win | Result: Georgia 44, Tennessee 41 (OT)

Joey Aguilar threw for 371 yards and accounted for five total touchdowns and Tennessee led Georgia by eight late in the fourth quarter, but the Bulldogs rallied to tie the game with 2:30 left in regulation. Max Gilbert missed a go-ahead 43-yard field goal attempt with seven seconds left and Georgia won in the first overtime.

UAB

Before Week 4: Tennessee 98.7% win | Result: Tennessee 56, UAB 24

Joey Aguilar threw for 218 yards and three touchdowns and the Vols ran for 235 yards and four touchdowns as a team, building a 42-7 lead at halftime then emptying the bench in the second half on the way to the 56-24 win over Trent Dilfer’s UAB Blazers.

Mississippi State

Before Week 4: Tennessee 76.8% win | After Week 4: Vols 73.7%

Mississippi State is 4-0 with wins over then-No. 12 Arizona State 24-20 in Starkville, Southern Miss (34-17), Alcorn State (63-0) and Northern Illinois (38-10). Saturday’s kickoff is set for 4:15 p.m. Eastern Time on SEC Network.

Arkansas

Before Week 4: Tennessee 72.8% win | After Week 4: Vols 74.3%

Arkansas is 2-2 after back-to-back losses, giving up an 18-point lead in a 32-31 loss at Memphis on Saturday after losing 41-35 at Ole Miss a week earlier. The Razorbacks beat Arkansas State 56-14 in Little Rock in Week 2 and beat Alabama A&M 52-7 in Week 1. Tennessee hosts Arkansas on October 11 in a flex kickoff window (3:30-4:30 p.m. or 6-8 p.m.).

Alabama

Before Week 4: Alabama 66.4% win | After Week 4: Alabama 66.5%

Alabama, which was off last week, lost 31-17 at Florida State in Week 1 and has bounced back with a 73-0 win over Louisiana Monroe and a 38-14 win over Wisconsin. Tennessee goes to Alabama on October 18 for the annual Third Saturday in October Rivalry. The Vols have won two of the last three, beating the Crimson Tide 24-17 at Neyland Stadium last season and 52-49 in Knoxville in 2022.

Kentucky

Before Week 4: Tennessee 77.1% win | After Week 4: Vols 77.3%

Kentucky is 2-1 after a 30-23 at home against then-No. 20 Ole Miss and wins over Toledo (24-16) and Eastern Michigan (48-23). The Vols go to Lexington on October 25, looking for a third straight road win over Kentucky during the Josh Heupel era, including a 45-42 at Kentucky in November 2021 and 33-27 road win in October 2023.

Oklahoma

Before Week 4: Tennessee 64.3% | After Week 4: Vols 66.3%

Oklahoma is 4-0 wins over Auburn (24-17), at Temple (42-3), then-No. 15 Michigan (24-13) and Illinois State (35-3). Tennessee hosts Oklahoma on November 1 after going to Norman last season and winning 25-15. It was the first win over Oklahoma for Tennessee since 1939, after the Sooners won three straight (1968, 2014 and 2015).

New Mexico State

Before Week 4: Tennessee 99.0% win | After Week 4: Vols 99.0%

New Mexico State is 2-1 after losing 49-14 at Louisiana Tech last Saturday. The Aggies started the season with a 19-3 win over Bryant in Week 1 and a 21-14 win over Tulsa in Week 2. The November 15 game will be the first meeting between the two teams and will be Homecoming Weekend for the Vols, as well as Salute to Service Weekend. It’s a 4:15 p.m. ET start on SEC Network.

Florida

Before Week 4: Tennessee 68.1% win | After Week 4: Vols 71.7%

Florida lost its third straight game Saturday night, 26-7 at No. 4 Miami. The Gators lost 20-10 at then-No. 3 LSU the previous week, after being upset 18-16 at home by South Florida on September 6. The Gators opened with a 55-0 win over Long Island in Week 1. Tennessee goes Florida on November 22, the first game agains the Gators in November in program history. Kickoff is currently in the flex window.

Vanderbilt

Before Week 4: Tennessee 69.4% win | After Week 4: Vols 63.5%

Vanderbilt is 4-0 after wins over Georgia State (70-21), at then-No. 11 South Carolina (31-7), at Virginia Tech (44-20) and Charleston Southern (45-3). Tennessee will end the regular-season schedule on November 29 with Senior Day against Vanderbilt at Neyland Stadium. The Vols were looking a seventh straight win in the annual in-state series, which dates back to 1892.