Updating ESPN's Matchup Predictor picks for Tennessee's final five games

Updating the ESPN Matchup Predictor’s game-by-game picks for the remainder of the Tennessee Football schedule, with the 17th-ranked Vols (5-2, 2-2 SEC) going to Kentucky (2-4, 0-4) on Saturday night (7:45 p.m. Eastern Time, SEC Network) at Kroger Field in Lexington:

Syracuse

Before Week 1: Tennessee 88.6% win | Result: Vols 45, Syracuse 26

Joey Aguilar threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns in his Tennessee debut and the Vols rushed for 246 yards as a team in the season-opening win. Braylon Staley caught a 73-yard touchdown pass and all three Tennessee running backs — DeSean Bishop, Peyton Lewis and Star Thomas — had one touchdown each. 

ETSU

Before Week 2: Tennessee 99.0% win | Result: Vols 72, ETSU 17

Tennessee broke modern-day program record for points scored in its 72-17, while also setting the program record for first downs (41) in the win. Tennessee completed 38 of 52 passes for 458 yards and four touchdowns in the win, with Joey Aguilar, Jake Merklinger and George MacIntyre all seeing action. Seven running backs combined for 259 yards and five rushing touchdowns on the day, while 13 receivers caught passes. 

Georgia

Before Week 3: Tennessee 51.5% win | Result: Georgia 44, Vols 41 (OT)

Joey Aguilar threw for 371 yards and accounted for five total touchdowns and Tennessee led Georgia by eight late in the fourth quarter, but the Bulldogs rallied to tie the game with 2:30 left in regulation. Max Gilbert missed a go-ahead 43-yard field goal attempt with seven seconds left and Georgia won in the first overtime.

UAB

Before Week 4: Tennessee 98.7% win | Result: Vols 56, UAB 24

Joey Aguilar threw for 218 yards and three touchdowns and the Vols ran for 235 yards and four touchdowns as a team, building a 42-7 lead at halftime then emptying the bench in the second half on the way to the 56-24 win over Trent Dilfer’s UAB Blazers.

Mississippi State

Before Week 5: Tennessee 76.8% win | Result: Vols 41, Miss. State 34 (OT)

Joey Aguilar scored on a 6-yard run to tie the game with 1:55 left in the fourth quarter, DeSean Bishop ran 25 yards for a touchdown on the first play of overtime and Tennessee’s defense got four straight stops inside the 5-yard line after Mississippi State took possession, sealing a dramatic come-from-behind win in Starkville.

Arkansas

Before Week 7: Vols 82.6% | Result: Vols 34, Arkansas 31

Tennessee trailed 17-10 after the first 20 minutes against Arkansas at Neyland Stadium, responded with 24 straight points to build a 34-17 lead, then had to hold on after the Razorbacks scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to get back within a field goal.

Alabama

Before Week 8: Alabama 72.4% | Result: Alabama 37, Vols 20

Alabama had a 99-yard Pick 6 on the final play of the first half, using the 14-point swing to lead 23-7 at halftime and change the game for good on the way to a 37-20 win. Joey Aguilar completed 28 of 44 passes for 268 yards, with a touchdown and the interception. DeSean Bishop ran 14 times for 123 yards and two touchdowns and Braylon Staley caught 10 passes for 92 yards and a touchdown.

Kentucky

Before Week 8: Tennessee 77.8% | After Week 8: Tennessee 75.1%

Kentucky dropped to 2- 4 after a third straight loss, losing 16-13 to Texas in overtime Saturday night in Lexington. The Wildcats previously lost 35-14 at Georgia and 35-13 at South Carolina. They started SEC play with a 30-23 home loss to Ole Miss on September 6. Kentucky has wins over Toledo (24-16) and Eastern Michigan (48-23).

Oklahoma

Before Week 8: Tennessee 65.0% | After Week 8: Vols 58.4%

Oklahoma won 26-7 at South Carolina no Saturday, bouncing back from the 23-6 to Texas in the Red River Rivalry in Dallas two weeks ago. The Sooners started 5-0 with wins over Kent State (44-0), Auburn (24-17), Temple (42-3), then-No. 15 Michigan (24-13) and Illinois State (35-3).

New Mexico State

Before Week 8: Tennessee 99.0% | After Week 8: Vols 98.9%

New Mexico State is 3-3 after a 30-27 loss at Liberty. The Aggies won 37-10 at Sam Houston State on October 4 and lost 38-20 at New Mexico and 49-14 at Louisiana Tech, after starting the season with a 19-3 win over Bryant in Week 1 and a 21-14 win over Tulsa in Week 2. The November 15 game will be the first meeting between Tennessee and New Mexico State and will be Homecoming Weekend for the Vols, as well as Salute to Service Weekend. It’s a 4:15 p.m. ET start on SEC Network.

Florida

Before Week 8: Tennessee 61.0% | After Week 8: Vols 62.4%

Florida is 3-4 after a 23-21 win over Mississippi State and is in the market for a new head coach after firing Billy Napier on Sunday. Florida started 1-3 after three straight losses to Miami, LSU and South Florida. The Gators upset Texas 29-21 in Gainesville and lost 34-17 at Texas A&M before firing Napier.

Vanderbilt

Before Week 8: Tennessee 60.4% | After Week 8: Vols 58.8%

Vanderbilt is 6-1 after a 31-24 win over LSU in Nashville. Vandy lost 30-14 at Alabama on October 4. The Commodores started the season with five straight wins, beating Utah State (55-35), Georgia State (70-21), South Carolina (31-7), Virginia Tech (44-20) and Charleston Southern (45-3). Tennessee will end the regular-season schedule on November 29 with Senior Day against Vanderbilt at Neyland Stadium.