Why ESPN picked Tennessee Football to beat Illinois in Music City Bowl

ESPN is picking Tennessee Football to win the Music City Bowl against Illinois and picking the Vols to cover, too. Why? Because of starting quarterback Joey Aguilar and Josh Heupel’s high-scoring offense. 

“The Vols never really recovered from their early loss to Georgia and have much to sort out on defense,” ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg wrote, “which ranks 91st nationally in points allowed. Expect a lot of scoring in this one, but Tennessee prevails behind quarterback Joey Aguilar.”

Rittenberg predicted Tennessee to beat Illinois 37-30. The Vols opened as a 5.5-point favorite against the Illini two weeks ago, with the total set at 61.5, but the line is now down to 2.5 points. 

Music City Bowl: December 30, 5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Tennessee and Illinois have never met in football, but the Vols have made three appearances in the Music City Bowl. Tennessee lost to North Carolina 30-27 in the Music City Bowl in December 2010, beat Nebraska 38-25 in December 2016 and lost to Purdue 48-45 in December 2021 to cap the first season under head coach Josh Heupel.

Illinois went 8-4 during the regular season, losing 63-10 at Illinois, 34-16 at home against Ohio State, 42-25 at Washington and 27-10 at Wisconsin. The Illini beat Western Illinois, Duke, Western Michigan, USC, Purdue, Rutgers, Maryland and Northwestern.

“There will be plenty of orange in Nissan Stadium,” Rittenberg wrote, “although much of it won’t be cheering for Illinois, which caps a season that began with CFP hopes, was sidetracked sharply with a 53-point loss at Indiana but still ended with wins in three of the final four regular-season contests. 

“Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer started his career in the SEC at Ole Miss and can finish it against an SEC opponent in Tennessee, which pursued him as a transfer target this spring after Nico Iamaleava’s exit to UCLA.”

Joey Aguilar currently fourth in Tennessee single-season passing

Tennessee instead ended up with Aguilar, who passed for 3,444 yards during the regular season, putting him fourth on Tennessee’s single season passing list.

He trails only Peyton Manning in 1997, with 3,819 yards, Tyler Bray with 3,612 yards in 2012 and Erik Ainge with 3,522 yards in 2007.

“Couldn’t be more thankful for who he has been from the moment that he set foot here,” Heupel said last week. “That’s being a teammate and caring about the guys around him, the culture inside the locker room.

“And then certainly the player. His ability in a really short amount of time to grasp what we’re doing offensively, go play and execute at a really high level. Big part of our offensive and team success this year. And so couldn’t have had somebody come in May and do it any better.”