ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Tennessee a 57.6% chance to beat Vanderbilt

The ESPN Matchup Predictor gives No. 18 Tennessee a 57.6% chance to beat No. 12 Vanderbilt on Saturday at Neyland Stadium, as the Vols fight for a 10-win season and the Commodores look to stay alive in the College Football Playoff race.

Here’s a look back at how the game-by-game picks from the ESPN Matchup Predictor have played out over the course of the season:

Syracuse

Before Week 1: Tennessee 88.6% win | Result: Vols 45, Syracuse 26

Joey Aguilar threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns in his Tennessee debut and the Vols rushed for 246 yards as a team in the season-opening win. Braylon Staley caught a 73-yard touchdown pass and all three Tennessee running backs — DeSean Bishop, Peyton Lewis and Star Thomas — had one touchdown each. 

ETSU

Before Week 2: Tennessee 99.0% win | Result: Vols 72, ETSU 17

Tennessee broke modern-day program record for points scored in its 72-17, while also setting the program record for first downs (41) in the win. Tennessee completed 38 of 52 passes for 458 yards and four touchdowns in the win, with Joey Aguilar, Jake Merklinger and George MacIntyre all seeing action. Seven running backs combined for 259 yards and five rushing touchdowns on the day, while 13 receivers caught passes. 

Georgia

Before Week 3: Tennessee 51.5% win | Result: Georgia 44, Vols 41 (OT)

Joey Aguilar threw for 371 yards and accounted for five total touchdowns and Tennessee led Georgia by eight late in the fourth quarter, but the Bulldogs rallied to tie the game with 2:30 left in regulation. Max Gilbert missed a go-ahead 43-yard field goal attempt with seven seconds left and Georgia won in the first overtime.

UAB

Before Week 4: Tennessee 98.7% win | Result: Vols 56, UAB 24

Joey Aguilar threw for 218 yards and three touchdowns and the Vols ran for 235 yards and four touchdowns as a team, building a 42-7 lead at halftime then emptying the bench in the second half on the way to the 56-24 win over Trent Dilfer’s UAB Blazers.

Mississippi State

Before Week 5: Tennessee 76.8% win | Result: Vols 41, Miss. State 34 (OT)

Joey Aguilar scored on a 6-yard run to tie the game with 1:55 left in the fourth quarter, DeSean Bishop ran 25 yards for a touchdown on the first play of overtime and Tennessee’s defense got four straight stops inside the 5-yard line after Mississippi State took possession, sealing a dramatic come-from-behind win in Starkville.

Arkansas

Before Week 7: Tennessee 82.6% | Result: Vols 34, Arkansas 31

Tennessee trailed 17-10 after the first 20 minutes against Arkansas at Neyland Stadium, responded with 24 straight points to build a 34-17 lead, then had to hold on after the Razorbacks scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to get back within a field goal.

Alabama

Before Week 8: Alabama 72.4% | Result: Alabama 37, Vols 20

Alabama had a 99-yard Pick 6 on the final play of the first half, using the 14-point swing to lead 23-7 at halftime and change the game for good on the way to a 37-20 win. Joey Aguilar completed 28 of 44 passes for 268 yards, with a touchdown and the interception. DeSean Bishop ran 14 times for 123 yards and two touchdowns and Braylon Staley caught 10 passes for 92 yards and a touchdown.

Kentucky

Before Week 9: Tennessee 75.1% | Result: Vols 56, Kentucky 34

Joey Aguilar threw for a season-high 396 yards and had three touchdowns and the Vols rushed 33 times for 108 yards and had four touchdowns on the ground. Safety Edrees Farooq scored Tennessee’s fifth defensive touchdown of he season when he tipped at a pass at the line of scrimmage, caught the deflected pass and returned it 45 yards for the score.

Oklahoma

Before Week 10: Tennessee 63.3% | Result: Oklahoma 33, Tennessee 27

Joey Aguilar completed 29 of 45 passes for 393 yards and three touchdowns, but he threw two interceptions and was strip-sacked once, with the fumble returned for a touchdown and the two picks turned into two field goals. The 16 points off the three turnovers was enough for Oklahoma to upset Tennessee 33-27 at Neyland Stadium, effectively ending any College Football Playoff hopes for the Vols.

New Mexico State

Before Week 11: Tennessee 99.0% | Result: Tennessee 42, New Mexico State 9

Joey Aguilar had 238 total yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions and Tennessee ran 39 times as a team for 194 yards and four touchdowns in the 42-9 win over New Mexico State. DeSean Bishop ran for 80 yards and a touchdown, Braylon Staley caught five passes for 58 yards and a score and Aguilar ran for a 27-yard touchdown.

Florida

Before Week 13: Tennessee 65.0% | Result: Tennessee 31, Florida 11

Tennessee jumped out to a 31-0 lead at halftime after scoring touchdowns on each of its first four possessions in Gainesville Saturday night. The Vols matched a program record for margin of victory in a win at Florida after Joey Aguilar threw for 204 yards and a touchdown while Tennessee ran for 248 yards and three touchdowns as a team, winning at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium for the first time since 2003.

Vanderbilt

Before Week 13: Tennessee 58.6% | After Week 13: Vols 57.6%

Vanderbilt came off a bye week to hammer Kentucky 45-17 in Nashville last week. The Commodores are now 9-2 and ranked No. 12 in the AP Top 25 and No. 14 in the College Football Playoff Top 25. Vandy beat Auburn 45-38 overtime in Nashville on November 8, after losing 34-31 loss at Texas on November 1. That followed a 17-10 win over Missouri and a 31-24 win over LSU in Nashville. The first loss of the season was 30-14 at Alabama on October 4. The Dores started the year with five straight wins, beating Utah State (55-35), Georgia State (70-21), South Carolina (31-7), Virginia Tech (44-20) and Charleston Southern (45-3).