I'm thinking both schools overpaid, but not by a huge margin. 3.8 to 4 million dollars is the cost of employing a somewhat proven coach in the SEC Western Division.
I don't think either school overpaid based on results so far. I think we made a much safer bet than UM and that UM may have overpaid compared to the shape their program is in.
Dan has established his program and shown steady improvement and also by and large had players that stayed out of trouble. There's no glaring problems ahead. We are going to be solid unless he has just misevaluated recruits.
Bucky on the other hand has is still young enough in his time at UM that he could still flame out pretty easily. He's relying on a JUCO transfer to be his QB, after that QB has been kicked off another DI team and when he couldn't even manage to go from signing to spring practice without getting arrested. He still doesn't seem to have an O-line in place. He's got players that seem to have questionable attitudes, so it's not clear what would happen to the team if they take a big step back next year b/c of lack of qb or O-line play. I expect Freeze to continue to be good. It's not a huge red flag to not have an O-Line in year three; Mullen certainly didn't. But I thought Nutt was going to continue to be solid also and I would still say that UM got played b/c they are on the hook again, for big money, for a coach still young in his career that wasn't going anywhere if they didn't offer.
I h ave no doubt we could have signed Mullen for $3.8M and he would have signed the deal (or maybe just kept his current one), but after all he has done for State why not pay him market? We'd just ensure that he left next chance he got. And how ever many jobs he has turned down, he's certainly had at least one if not two good job prospects that he killed because he went in their making it clear that they were going to have to make a strong offer to get him to leave MSU, so he definitely hasn't been dying for a chance to go anywhere different.