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Recent content by Alexander33

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    Playing Spoiler

    I am not sure what qualifies as a spoiler, so I will make up my own definition. 1) Any team generally not considered one of the top two in their class but could possibly win the championship. 2) Any team generally not considered one of the top three in their class but could possibly make it to...
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    Playoff Predictions

    8A - Mt. Carmel 7A - East St. Louis 6A - Fenwick 5A - Providence 4A - Montini 3A - Byron 2A - Wilmington 1A - Stockton It will be interesting to see if Heyworth, El Paso-Gridley and Richmond-Burton can be upset winners in 1A, 2A and 3A respectively, but I will stick with my official picks as...
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    The Official Unbiased Top 10 end of regular season

    Looking at recent history, these are the four programs that have won two or more state championships at the 6A level or higher over the last five seasons. The number of championships, highest class level at which a championship was won, and the year of the most recent championship are listed to...
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    And the winner is...

    Providence should be favored in every game they play. However, staying within 14 points of them? I can count seven teams that should be able to do that: Kankakee, Morgan Park, Mahomet-Seymour, Morton, St. Francis, Kaneland and Cary-Grove. Providence may be the favorite in 5A but they are not a...
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    IHSA playoff seeding process.....

    Your statement is a statement of opinion. It seems a majority of IHSA members share your opinion. Otherwise, a formal proposal would have been submitted by an IHSA member and, if approved by a membership vote, the system would have been changed. It is appropriate, in a matter like this, that...
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    With the expanded playoffs is it time to use computer seeding?

    Bringing this thread back to the top for general reference.
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    IHSA playoff seeding process.....

    About a week ago a very similar thread was introduced and discussed. The thread was titled, "With the expanded playoffs, is it time to use computer seeding?" Although it was not a formal proposal by an IHSA member school, the 50th post in that thread provided a comprehensive alternative seeding...
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    IHSA playoff seeding process.....

    There are tradeoffs in life and different people value the tradeoffs differently. You and many others want to seed the teams based on their ability to play excellent football. Such an approach requires a significant strength of schedule component when evaluating each team's season. It seems...
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    Chicago Catholic League Exponential Smoothing Power Ratings

    I didn't think I was defending it tooth and nail. Several people had asked how the formula works, so I merely presented that information. I respect your right to disagree with and therefore disregard the information I present. Having done the calculations for my own personal use, I thought I...
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    Chicago Catholic League Exponential Smoothing Power Ratings

    The thing that gets smoothed is a wide variation between a predicted game score and the final actual score of the game. This is done for two reasons. First, it limits the impact on the power rating of a team running up a score, and it significantly limits the harmful impact on a team's power...
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    Chicago Catholic League Exponential Smoothing Power Ratings

    These are the ratings after eight weeks of play. The number to the right of each team's win/loss record is how many points worse than Mt. Carmel each team is. 1. Mt. Carmel (6-2) 0.0 2. Brother Rice (6-2) 5.6 3. Loyola (8-0) 8.6 4. Nazareth (4-4) 21.2 5. IC Catholic (7-1) 21.4 6. Montini (6-2)...
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    With the expanded playoffs is it time to use computer seeding?

    Recognizing the truth of a matter, and then using that truth effectively is usually the difference between success and failure in life. Pretending that objective truth does not exist is a formula for failure. Pretending that all 9-0 teams are equal in football-playing ability is a formula for...
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    With the expanded playoffs is it time to use computer seeding?

    Teams are generally not hurt by the seeds they receive. When they are hurt, it is generally because of an inaccurate seed their opponent has been given. Players generally want to play. That means they would like to play as many playoff games as their team's ability legitimately allows, while...
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    What Team(s) Will Stay Undefeated the Longest this year?

    It will be a difficult task for any team to win a state championship undefeated, but the two teams with the best chance seem to be Byron and Wilmington. Wilmington still has a tough regular season test against Coal City. Loyola at least gets Mt. Carmel at home in the regular season. So, if they...
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    The Official Unbiased Top Ten week 8

    1. Loyola (7-0) 2. East St. Louis (6-1) 3. Lincoln-Way East (7-0) 4. Brother Rice (5-2) 5. Mt. Carmel (5-2) 6. Rochester (7-0) 7. Bolingbrook (6-1) 8. Oswego (6-1) 9. Byron (7-0) 10. IC Catholic (7-0) 11. Downers Grove North (6-1) 12. Morris (7-0) 13. Geneva (6-1) 14. Normal (7-0) 15. Prospect...
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