10 % Improvement

PartTimeGenius · Sep 29, 2021

That’s all it takes for us to become a winning football team. Execution, consistency and capitalizing on mistakes is the key. What does that 10% represent?
That’s the percentage of plays (actually less than that) that are the direct difference in our wins vs losses thus far.

Let’s just look at LSU game: 28-25 L
Max Johnson 17-27, 4TD, 1Int. In the 3Q, we gave up 122yds on TWO scoring plays. The credit goes to LSU because on those 2 plays, they capitalized on our defensive mistakes. Let’s just say we kept them from scoring on those plays—even if we still made mistakes. That’s 17-27 with 2TD instead of 4TD.
TWO plays is all it took to give up 122 yds. 2 out of 27 passing plays equates to 7.4 % of their total pass plays. That’s not even 10%. Less than 10% of our screw ups turned into 14 pts for their offense.

What’s my point?

Defenses have missed assignments far more than 10% of their total plays on the field. If this offense will take advantage of those missed assignments at only a 10% greater clip, we’ll be winning games. It is not that defenses are so good that we can’t score on them, it’s simply that we are not capitalizing on the opportunities given. We’ve heard time and time again that consistency and repetition are key in a Leach offense. This is why. The longer a defense is on the field, the more mistakes they’ll make. Leach’s offense is a simple offense based on repetition—we are just not yet at that point where we are consistently executing play after play. Point your fingers where you will for the lack of consistency thus far, but once we reach that 10% higher level of consistency, we could be really, really good.
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dorndawg · Sep 29, 2021

User name seems suspect?*

Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't this thought experiment assume the other team is executing perfectly, with no room for improvement?

PartTimeGenius · Sep 29, 2021

For the particular plays in question, wouldn't you agree that the other team executed perfectly while our team did not? 122 yds and 2 TD would say yes. The goal is to reverse the roles on those additional 10% of plays making us the team executing perfectly in those times where the other team does not.

Defensively that cuts out those big freebies. Offensively it creates those freebies. Both of which have been hurting us, which is why we have won the statistical battles but not the scoreboard.

Ralph Cramden · Sep 29, 2021

We can't control the other team. His point is that if we stop screwing ourselves we can win. We should be 4 and 0 right now but we keep shooting ourselves in the foot. Personally thats what I find frustrating. 7 points from being 4 and 0 but of course close doesn't count

dorndawg · Sep 29, 2021

PartTimeGenius said:
For the particular plays in question, wouldn't you agree that the other team executed perfectly while our team did not? 122 yds and 2 TD would say yes. The goal is to reverse the roles on those additional 10% of plays making us the team executing perfectly in those times where the other team does not.

Defensively that cuts out those big freebies. Offensively it creates those freebies. Both of which have been hurting us, which is why we have won the statistical battles but not the scoreboard.

Sure, but it assumes we'd win if only we were slightly better without the possibility of the opposing team also performing better.

FQDawg · Sep 29, 2021

PartTimeGenius said:
The longer a defense is on the field, the more mistakes they’ll make.

This is seemingly true for our offense as well.

PirateDawg · Sep 29, 2021

Thanks Ralph for getting the thread back on track. The anti-Leach folks love derailing threads to their thoughts. Even if we don't get flagged on the punt I say we go on to win the game. One mistake can cost a team a game. If we don't fumble the ball on our first drives the last two games. It goes on and on but ultimately what it points to is "stop killing yourself"! The game against TAM will definitely be lost by the team that has the most turnovers and I consider the flag on the punt a turnover!

johnson86-1 · Sep 29, 2021

PartTimeGenius said:
 That’s all it takes for us to become a winning football team. Execution, consistency and capitalizing on mistakes is the key. What does that 10% represent?
That’s the percentage of plays (actually less than that) that are the direct difference in our wins vs losses thus far.

Let’s just look at LSU game: 28-25 L
Max Johnson 17-27, 4TD, 1Int. In the 3Q, we gave up 122yds on TWO scoring plays. The credit goes to LSU because on those 2 plays, they capitalized on our defensive mistakes. Let’s just say we kept them from scoring on those plays—even if we still made mistakes. That’s 17-27 with 2TD instead of 4TD.
TWO plays is all it took to give up 122 yds. 2 out of 27 passing plays equates to 7.4 % of their total pass plays. That’s not even 10%. Less than 10% of our screw ups turned into 14 pts for their offense.

What’s my point?

Defenses have missed assignments far more than 10% of their total plays on the field. If this offense will take advantage of those missed assignments at only a 10% greater clip, we’ll be winning games. It is not that defenses are so good that we can’t score on them, it’s simply that we are not capitalizing on the opportunities given. We’ve heard time and time again that consistency and repetition are key in a Leach offense. This is why. The longer a defense is on the field, the more mistakes they’ll make. Leach’s offense is a simple offense based on repetition—we are just not yet at that point where we are consistently executing play after play. Point your fingers where you will for the lack of consistency thus far, but once we reach that 10% higher level of consistency, we could be really, really good.

I don't think we just blew coverages on those two plays. I think we got burned by being too aggressive. Most of the game being agressive helped us get to the ball quickly. Those two plays we got burned and it cost us big. That's not the same as there being a miscommunication and busted coverage, which you can just fix. We got burned based off the tradeoffs we made. For the game, it wasn't terrible. Wasn't great, but the defense gave us a chance to win. What is more concerning to me is that it seems like we get burned pretty consistently in the third quarter. Not sure if that's just a fluke or if we are adding in wrinkles/risks that payoff for the first half and we don't do a good job of anticipating the adjustments after halftime.

Jeffreauxdawg · Sep 29, 2021

You are making the argument for us. The two plays you are talking about from LSU were coverage busts. It's a hell of a lot easier to create those kind of "explosive" plays when they defense doesn't have 7-8 guys dropping deep into a 3 deep, 5 under zone. Force the defense to defend the line of scrimmage with a power run game. They will eventually get tired of giving up 4-7 yard runs and change. You will even force some man coverages if you do it enough.

I love the air raid as the base of an offense. But you have to be willing to adapt when it's not working. Read this on how Washington smoked WSU all those years under Petersen and Jimmy Lake. I am not a Leach hater, I just hate the idea of a coach that is too stubborn to do something different if that's what will help the team win.

https://blogs.usafootball.com/blog/6919/how-washington-has-snuffed-out-the-air-raid

The "key" for Washington was having a talented d-line. We play 5-6 Washington level or better d-lines a year in the SEC. My entire concern is Leach laid 6 consecutive eggs agains UW. Are we going to see that against the better defenses in the SEC? It scares the **** out of me that instead of having 1 team own us like that we will have 4-5.

https://www.uwdawgpound.com/2019/11...-mismatch-washington-huskies-football-cougars

I hope I am wrong. I surely do. But I am not going to pump sunshine about what I am seeing. We are 4 games into the year and have trailed by double digits in the 4th quarter in 3 of them already. The NC State game was awesome, but the defense and special teams won that game. The offense is taking exactly what the other defenses are giving them for 3+ quarters. And we are losing. When the offense goes out there and tries to force the issue, it starts moving the ball.

PartTimeGenius · Sep 29, 2021

The point is that we are not capitalizing on the coverage busts when they are there. That's the 10% improvement needed offensively. There will be busts, so it's just a matter of being consistent and taking advantage when they come.

Even if our defense stayed the exact same as it has been, the 10% additional capitalization rate from the offensive side would likely bring us out on top.

aerodawg.sixpack · Sep 29, 2021

JoeLee'sSocks said:
I love the air raid as the base of an offense. But you have to be willing to adapt when it's not working. Read this on how Washington smoked WSU all those years under Petersen and Jimmy Lake. I am not a Leach hater, I just hate the idea of a coach that is too stubborn to do something different if that's what will help the team win.

https://blogs.usafootball.com/blog/6919/how-washington-has-snuffed-out-the-air-raid

The "key" for Washington was having a talented d-line. We play 5-6 Washington level or better d-lines a year in the SEC. My entire concern is Leach laid 6 consecutive eggs agains UW. Are we going to see that against the better defenses in the SEC? It scares the **** out of me that instead of having 1 team own us like that we will have 4-5.

I don’t disagree with you. But I am more optimistic after the LSU game than I was before it. It seemed the offensive line splits were shaved down a bit which is probably a necessity with the athletes on the DL in the SEC. And we ran the ball quite a bit at them and even forced them to start keeping 4 in to slow our run game. That’s pretty much exactly what we needed to do and we did it. Mistakes and bad reads kept us out of the endzone. I’d like to see Rogers anticipate open receivers rather than having to wait for them to be open. If he ever is able to do that then we would be very dangerous.

archdog · Sep 29, 2021

aerodawg said:
I don’t disagree with you. But I am more optimistic after the LSU game than I was before it. It seemed the offensive line splits were shaved down a bit which is probably a necessity with the athletes on the DL in the SEC. And we ran the ball quite a bit at them and even forced them to start keeping 4 in to slow our run game. That’s pretty much exactly what we needed to do and we did it. Mistakes and bad reads kept us out of the endzone. I’d like to see Rogers anticipate open receivers rather than having to wait for them to be open. If he ever is able to do that then we would be very dangerous.

Agreed. When Rogers figures out how to throw someone open before they break open we will dominate the entire league including Bama. The plays are there, we just have to make them.

tatedog · Sep 29, 2021

Ah the siren's call of the college football fan.

We wouldn't suck so much if we didn't suck so much.

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10 % Improvement

PartTimeGenius

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dorndawg

Heisman

PartTimeGenius

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Ralph Cramden

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dorndawg

Heisman

FQDawg

Senior

PirateDawg

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johnson86-1

All-American

Jeffreauxdawg

All-American

PartTimeGenius

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aerodawg.sixpack

Freshman

archdog

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tatedog

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