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2013 Outlook for State and TSUN...

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fishwater99

Freshman
Jun 4, 2007
14,072
54
48
STATE
We win 6 games, 7 if beat the Bears and 8 if we beat OSU.
Wins(ASU,Auburn, Troy, B. Green, UK, Arky) Losses (LSU, Bama, SC, A&M) Tossup(OSU, TSUN)

TSUN
They win 7 games, 8 if the beat us in S-Vegas.
Wins(Vandy, SE Mizzo, Auburn, Idaho, Arky, Troy, Mizzo) Losses(Texas, Bama, A&M, LSU) Tossup(State)

Any thoughts??
 
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InaccuratePredictionsDawg

Redshirt
Sep 16, 2012
498
0
0
The way I see it...

... Ole Miss has 6 homes games in a row, which means if they are not a top 20 team going into the Egg Bowl, then Freeze has underachieved. Mullen is about to enter his 5th year. If Mullen can do no better than 6-6 in his 5th year, then not only has Mullen underachieved, we've got problems.
 
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thf24

Redshirt
Jan 28, 2011
1,334
3
38
I think Auburn should be considered a tossup for both of us, not a win. Malzahn was only gone for one year; he's still going to have a lot of players he recruited in '10 and '11 who know and fit his offense. They may not be back to full strength but they won't be last year's team either.
 
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Railin Jemmye

Redshirt
Oct 29, 2012
1,937
0
0
I worry about Troy as a let down game. Yeah, yeah, I know we theoretically should beat them on paper, and it's at home. And we have a new DC. I get that, but I just have visions of that QB (who will be a fifth year Sr. next year) just rolling all over us. Right after the Auburn game too. This is the type of thing many don't take into consideration when making predictions. We WILL be flat for that game, just a matter of if we out-talent them. OSU and Auburn games are so important....they will set the tone for the whole year.
 
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BigLeagueChew

Redshirt
Aug 25, 2008
411
0
16
I think Ark is a win for both teams, but Auburn does make me nervous. If you can execute the spread well, you can make up for a lack of talent. I.e. OM 2012. I really think A&M drops off a little this year along with LSU.
 
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Railin Jemmye

Redshirt
Oct 29, 2012
1,937
0
0
Lost all their playmakers from last year though....Blake, McCalebb, Lutzenkirchien (sp). Won't have many big play threats, which is a staple of a Malzahn offense.
 
M

MzTerry

Redshirt
Aug 22, 2012
97
0
0
For both teams I think LSU should be in a different category altogether. There is no way you can call it a tossup (especially for us), but that game is actually possible to win for both teams next year. LSU loses SO much, probably more than any relevant team in a VERY long time. Neither team can beat Bama or A&M, and we can't beat SC solely because Clowney will eat Clausell's soul play after play. I'd say .01% chance against Bama, 5% chance against A&M, 15% against SC, but I'd give us about a 30% chance against LSU.

Auburn sucks we'll dominate them.
 
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thf24

Redshirt
Jan 28, 2011
1,334
3
38
That's true, but I still think they're going to be a lot better than they were last year because they won't be trying to put a square peg in a round hole.
 
O

Oxford Andrew

All-Conference
Aug 22, 2012
1,748
4,207
113
Looks reasonable to me. I think Ole Miss wins one in the Losses column (most likely Texas) but I'm not chalking up Auburn and Arkansas as gimmes either.

Auburn and Arkansas will be up, but LSU will be down some. With the O-line losses A&M could be better or worse. I think Ole Miss has a likely ceiling of 9 wins next year, including a bowl win, with 10 wins being a very, very outside possibility.

State, on the other hand, I have no idea about. I don't think you were as bad as you looked at the end of last year, and if Mullen can get the team's head on straight you could be a lot better. With the less favorable schedule it's hard to see them doing as well as last year, though, even if the team gets better.

Last year would have been a good year for a team like State or Ole Miss to step up, with other teams in the West being down. Even Bama wasn't as good as they have been (though obviously they were still a step above everybody else). It's a shame neither team was in the position to take advantage of the opportunity.
 
D

DaRealistDawg

Redshirt
Mar 3, 2008
368
6
12
Good except Vandy

No way you put Vandy as win for Rebs. They play @ Vandy right?

Everything else looks realistic, both 6-5 going into Egg Bowl.
 
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Railin Jemmye

Redshirt
Oct 29, 2012
1,937
0
0
I agree, but we'll be better too, especially on defense, to counter any improvements they have. But I will say this, I am always nervous about that misdirection **** that Malzahn does....I mean, we handled it OK in 2010 with Cam running the show, but in 2009 it seems they ripped us up with less developed talent. I still have that in the back of my head, even though logic says Torbush sucked.
 
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Coach 57

Redshirt
Aug 22, 2012
374
0
0
I'm going to start this with our friends up north we love so well.

TSUN: With the talent they have coming back (not even talking recruiting) they are going to be bowl bound unless they have a significant injury. Figure in Brassell and their signing class I think they could be an 8 win team. Emphasis on COULD. Tredwell is a SUPER talent having him on the field with Moncreif and the other WR core they are going to be a high scoring team. Wallace should get better with another year under his belt. But if he goes down they could be in trouble. In order for them to be successful they must have a good RB core that way his carries go down. Which will in turn limit him getting hit and him being healthy. Defensively they'll be ok.



As far as Auburn I think they will be a bowl team. Tsun & MSU can't count that as a for sure win. With the restrictions of Chizik gone from Malzhan's scheme and play calling you tsun people think Freeze is innovative you will see the O.G of it here. This guy scares the hell out of every defense hos offense faces. Frazier will be Cam 1.5 and people will see why he was highly touted as a QB from high-school.


MSU: Those that think we win 8 are almost as bad as the tsun people thinking they're going to win a NC or SEC championship. Get some reality. Be ready for a 6-6 season. 7 if we are lucky. Our defense will be about what it has been the last 3-4 years. Our LB core is going to get far more athletic, we now have a couple of true rush ends to rotate in and out. And Quay and Nick will be alot better after having s solid year under their belt. Cox will help patrol the back end of our defense. But our offense will be WORSE. BANK ON IT! Last year any DC that understood basic sets and could get pressure from a 5 man rush personnel out did our offense. And that was with a senior laden WR core who understood reads and option routes. That will not be here this year. Tyler will get smashed over and over as our young WRs are trying to understand what we are trying to do. The only way we will establish a decent offense is to establish the running game. Period. We will go 6-6 and after Tyler leaves we'll be what I have hoped we would be.....a dual threat QB offense.
 
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Oxford Andrew

All-Conference
Aug 22, 2012
1,748
4,207
113
I think Texas is beatable, at least as much as LSU or A&M, teams we played to the wire last year.

Playing them early did us no favors last year, and the team didn't really gel until after that game. I'm not calling a win, but I think we can snag one of Bama, A&M, LSU, and Texas and I have a feeling we'll be better and Texas will be worse than in 2012.
 
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CadaverDawg

Redshirt
Dec 5, 2011
6,409
0
0
Coach 57 said:
I'm going to start this with our friends up north we love so well.

TSUN: With the talent they have coming back (not even talking recruiting) they are going to be bowl bound unless they have a significant injury. Figure in Brassell and their signing class I think they could be an 8 win team. Emphasis on COULD. Tredwell is a SUPER talent having him on the field with Moncreif and the other WR core they are going to be a high scoring team. Wallace should get better with another year under his belt. But if he goes down they could be in trouble. In order for them to be successful they must have a good RB core that way his carries go down. Which will in turn limit him getting hit and him being healthy. Defensively they'll be ok.



As far as Auburn I think they will be a bowl team. Tsun & MSU can't count that as a for sure win. With the restrictions of Chizik gone from Malzhan's scheme and play calling you tsun people think Freeze is innovative you will see the O.G of it here. This guy scares the hell out of every defense hos offense faces. Frazier will be Cam 1.5 and people will see why he was highly touted as a QB from high-school.


MSU: Those that think we win 8 are almost as bad as the tsun people thinking they're going to win a NC or SEC championship. Get some reality. Be ready for a 6-6 season. 7 if we are lucky. Our defense will be about what it has been the last 3-4 years. Our LB core is going to get far more athletic, we now have a couple of true rush ends to rotate in and out. And Quay and Nick will be alot better after having s solid year under their belt. Cox will help patrol the back end of our defense. But our offense will be WORSE. BANK ON IT! Last year any DC that understood basic sets and could get pressure from a 5 man rush personnel out did our offense. And that was with a senior laden WR core who understood reads and option routes. That will not be here this year. Tyler will get smashed over and over as our young WRs are trying to understand what we are trying to do. The only way we will establish a decent offense is to establish the running game. Period. We will go 6-6 and after Tyler leaves we'll be what I have hoped we would be.....a dual threat QB offense.
Click to expand...

This seems most realistic to me. Ole Miss will improve because they will have more experience on both sides. We will improve on defense due to better D-Line play, but we will go backwards in offensive progression. We can bad mouth our former WR's all we want, but that experience Does make a difference.

I am very afraid that with Tyler starting at QB and us having to run a similar offense as last year....we will only win 5 games.

Hate to bring this up again, but I think if we were to start Dak and get back to the heavy ground game, eat clock, and play good D....we could win 7.

So, I'm going with 5-7 since we won't do that.

ETA: The following year when Dak starts and our WR's (Ross, Chappelle, etc) have more experience....we will win 9 games minimum if we don't have a coaching change. That will also be the return of the favorable schedule, and our Defense will be sick that year too.
 
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Coach 57

Redshirt
Aug 22, 2012
374
0
0
Lol Cadaver you are a glutton for punishment and as you know I agree wholeheartedly with that assessment.
 
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CookieMonster.sixpack

Redshirt
Aug 22, 2012
2,761
1
31
I'd move Auburn & Arky into the toss-up categories for both teams, Vandy as a toss-up for Ole Miss, South Carolina a toss-up for State.

Every year people start projecting what will happen, but they are wrong 99% of the time. Who saw Auburn, Arkansas or Ole Miss coming this time last year? No one.

That said, I think it's safe to assume we beat Kentucky and our non-conference schedule (except OSU). That's four wins. We just need to find 2 or 3 wins in the other eight.

For Ole Miss, the same is true except instead of Kentucky they get Mizzou. That's four wins. The rest, like our situation, is anything but sure.

Both teams could miss a bowl game next year. That's a real possibility. Or a more likely scenario is that the Egg Bowl features two 5-6 teams. That would be frightening for the loser.

Actually, I sorta, kinda like our schedule a little bit better than theirs. I think I'd rather play OSU & @USCe than @Texas & @Vandy.

Plus, now that they've stirred up the hornets nest by having such a recruiting coup, let's see how well they do with the spotlight on them. No one will take them lightly. Whereas we've been basically forgotten and ignored (and rightfully so the way we finished). So there's a chance we could sneak up on someone, say LSU or A&M (but I'm not holding my breath). They won't get that advantage.
 
ckDOG

ckDOG

All-American
Dec 11, 2007
9,943
5,708
113
Agree with ours for the most part. OM - there's no telling.

fishwater99 said:
STATE
We win 6 games, 7 if beat the Bears and 8 if we beat OSU.
Wins(ASU,Auburn, Troy, B. Green, UK, Arky) Losses (LSU, Bama, SC, A&M) Tossup(OSU, TSUN)

TSUN
They win 7 games, 8 if the beat us in S-Vegas.
Wins(Vandy, SE Mizzo, Auburn, Idaho, Arky, Troy, Mizzo) Losses(Texas, Bama, A&M, LSU) Tossup(State)

Any thoughts??
Click to expand...

There's no telling what Auburn and Arkansas teams show up next year, so I'm skeptical at lumping them into buckets. I still have to think we have an edge with them both having new staffs. We have a decent shot at beating both.

I will say this about OM's schedule. WTF? I have no idea what kind of season they will have. You look at the 6 game home stretch and it looks nice at first glance, but thinking about it further, that's just dumb. It's stressful as a fan to make that many consecutive road trips. Unless they just pull out a stretch of Ws, the game atmosphere is going to be tired. Plus, that forces them to have a bunch of road games on the front-end. They start out with Vandy, Texas, Alabama, and Auburn all on the road with a gimme SE Mizzou sandwiched in there at home. Vandy routinely has their number. If they lose in Nashville they are looking at starting the season 1-4 which isn't very confidence-inspiring leading into the more favorable part of their schedule. If I were an OM fan, I'd be hating on that schedule.

That said, if they carry over the energy from last year and make it out of the front part of the schedule 3-2 or 4-1, that home stretch could be interesting for them heading into Starkville.
 
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SkullCandy.sixpack

Redshirt
Nov 19, 2012
1,157
0
0
CookieMonster said:
Plus, now that they've stirred up the hornets nest by having such a recruiting coup, let's see how well they do with the spotlight on them. No one will take them lightly. Whereas we've been basically forgotten and ignored (and rightfully so the way we finished). So there's a chance we could sneak up on someone, say LSU or A&M (but I'm not holding my breath). They won't get that advantage.
Click to expand...
I think that an 8-4 team is no more likely to sneak up on someone than a 6-6 team with a boat load of true freshmen. After 4-5 games, you'll be judged by how you are playing, not what you did/recruited last year.
 
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Coach 57

Redshirt
Aug 22, 2012
374
0
0
Not true Cookie, go back and look. I had Auburn & Arky pegged. Go look at it. I did however fall short on UM.
 
Spidey.sixpack

Spidey.sixpack

Freshman
Aug 22, 2012
400
66
28
Both Arkansas and Auburn should be considered toss-ups. If we can win just one of those two on the road, I like our chances to go to another bowl game.

A first will happen in Arkansas. Either a first year Arky coach will beat MSU or MSU will win for the first time at Arkansas.
 
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Oxford Andrew

All-Conference
Aug 22, 2012
1,748
4,207
113
I hate our schedule next year. I don't think it's good for the team or for fans to have all the home/away games lumped together like that.
 
woozman

woozman

All-Conference
Nov 13, 2004
3,392
2,572
113
Yeah, that game will be telling and being the first game would make me nervous if I were an OM fan. All the new incoming talent won't have any college experience, much less any SEC experience for that game. Add in that it's in Nashville and that Vandy should be healthy (again, first game) - I'd be worried.

IF you lose to Vandy, there is a possibility that you start out 1-6.
 
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Palos verdes

Redshirt
Aug 22, 2012
1,839
36
48
Arkansas is a much more likely win than Auburn, for us and om. Auburn will give a defense fits if they can string up a legitimate qb. I think Arkansas will be in total rebuild mode and will suck *** against the SEC. They lost a lot of important players. The days of their high powered offense are over. I think Arkansas finishes dead last in the west.

I sure as hell hope we can beat OSU..if not, we may be playing for bowl eligibility against the fart knockers.
 
coach66

coach66

Junior
Mar 5, 2009
12,683
299
83
You playe a much worse Auburn team than we did early in the year last year. I

think that might get reversed this year.
 
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