2016 Playoffs
- Thread starter tommythecpa
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I think LCA will definitely miss out this year- they have 4 games currently showing on Maxpreps, 3 of them are Amherst, Woodberry Forest, and Martinsburg, likely all losses. With their schedule still a mix of private and publix they almost have to win 7 games and I don't think they do it this year considering those 3 already on the schedule. I'm going to guess Dominion or Loudoun Valley replaces them.
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I'm with Mike. LCA misses out. Don't know who else misses out but one team that gets in is William Byrd. Basham will be a force this upcoming season!
Mike question for you. What's your take on the possibility of some of Northside's players going to Fleming? You have to think that those Fleming facilities are darn nice for a high school program, the fact that WF's basketball & football programs have been historically good, the fact that Fleming has sent 2 to UVA in the past 2 years, and coach Bobby Martin is a Tech guy that has sent more than a couple from GW to D1 programs between football and basketball.. Very underrated coach. Gotta be tempting.! I'd be tempted. Have to think that it could be some re-flocking back to WF.
I was going to say Byrd as well, but looking at their schedule it's pretty challenging. They were 6-4 last year with this schedule, and it may be difficult to get that 7th win that would pretty much guarantee them a spot.
They have Salem, Magna Vista, Staunton River, Northside, and Lord Botetourt. Last year they lost to MV by a point, but beat SR by a point.
I think the Blue Ridge will be at least a 3 horse race this year with Byrd and Botetourt maybe gaining an advantage on Northside with everything going on there. If Overstreet stays at SR, it could even be a 4 horse race. I haven't heard anything lately about the rumor that had Overstreet going to JF.
I think the BRD & the Seminole will be 2 of the most competitive and fun to watch districts this year at the top. I think both could turn into a 4 horse race. The Seminole will be interesting with improvements likely from Amherst & Heritage, status quo for Brookville, and a likely drop-off for JF. So we could see 2 good district dogfights in the Roanoke/Lynchburg area in 3/4A.
I think it's a possibility if there are still Fleming transfers in the Northside program. I did hear a rumor about 1 kid at least considering a transfer, but it wasn't to Fleming. I actually think the guys will rally around and give the new guy a shot before they abandon ship, that's just my opinion.
I don't really know what to make of Sherando this year. They have a tough schedule yet again, and lose some of their playmakers from last season. Martinsburg and Fort Hill are unquestionably state powerhouses who aren't strangers to winning championships year after year, and Louisa, Eastern View, and Millbrook are in no way easy weeks.
The Warriors could easily drop 4 or more games this year if they're only a good team. I hope they don't, but could see it happening. If they beat Martinsburg (who will be far improved from last year) I think they could play with anyone in 4A.
The Warriors could easily drop 4 or more games this year if they're only a good team. I hope they don't, but could see it happening. If they beat Martinsburg (who will be far improved from last year) I think they could play with anyone in 4A.
I'm way more optimistic than you Shruikan. Lot of talent on top, and a huge amount of talent that is young. Not a lot in the middle. I understand you concerns, but you will be surprised if the Defensive line and the Quarterback mature quickly. Maybe the best running back ever at SHS coming up as a sophomore. d-1 talent at two linebacker spots. Lots to be happy about. This offensive line coming up will be young but could possibly be the best ever when it's said and done.
Does ANYBODY have any info on JF? I know they lose a lot and with the Seminole being as tough as it is, you have to wonder how much will the departure of Jones, Miller Trent and Scott (probably 95% or more of their offensive production) will affect this team. Will they be able to finish 7-3 or better in a district with Amherst, Brookville, Liberty, Heritage, etc? Can't forget, they have Staunton River and Magna Vista as non district games also. I love what Christmas has done and he's a great coach but realistically, you have to think, will this team miss the playoffs this year?
SOS, Christmas and the conditioning program will put them in the playoffs. They will be formidable there.
Did you see that weight room they have? Incredible for a HS program. Better than almost any DII. Christmas has them humming and they are now run like a College level program. I do not believe they will be as good as last year, especially with their schedule, but these guys are a program. They will not have to rebuild. They will reload. Discounting them would be a terrible mistake.
I'm a pessimist by nature, but in this case I hope I'm very wrong about my "prediction." Definitely lots to look forward to over the next several years at Sherando, just not sure how long it'll take for them to reach their potential. Coach Hall will definitely get them there, it's just a matter of when.
I don't know who the players will be that step up to lead this team, but I see this team under Coach Christmas as a reloader, not a rebuilder. My reasons for believing this: In his last 14 years Coach is 128-37, JF is one of the bigger schools in the district and with the excitement surrounding the program they will probably have the biggest roster in the district, (good depth) although they play in a tough district I don't see a clear cut favorite, and the focus and effort put into strength and conditioning will pay dividends late in the game. They will be in games late with a chance and that coaching experience, conditioning, and depth will pay off. Despite the losses to graduation I can still see them winning 6 or 7 games and with the SOS, that will qualify them for a playoff spot. All that being said I don't see them advancing past the 2nd round assuming they make it. Just my opinion.
I understand but they literally lose 50+ touchdowns with one player and then you have Miller Trent and Scott probably accounting for the rest. Looking at how they were shook when Salem put the hammer down on them.. Took Navy and Miller Trent out of it and they looked like an avg football team. Now they could very well win 6-7 or more games, but honestly, I'd pick them as underdogs in at least 4 of their games (Magna Vista, Staunton River (if Overstreet stays), Heritage, and Amherst) and wouldn't be surprised to see Brookville sneak out a win. I could be wrong, but that's a darn hard schedule without a Navy Jones and Miller-Trent. Unless they hire Rob Ryan as DC tonight, I just don't see them living up to the hype.
GW lost 50+ TDs after the 2014 season. They did fine in 2015. And, yes, I didn't think they could do that either.
I completely understand what you are saying and prior to Christmas' arrival they never had anything more than average teams so my reloading theory has no precedent. It's just a feeling or hunch that I have that is primarily influenced by the coach's leadership.
I see his influence in the 2 years he's been there, not just with on the field results (which could have primarily been the result of 1 or 2 major impact players) but injecting major excitement into the program. They've got a new field, new weight room, more fans, & plans/fundraising towards an improved stadium (Jake Grove can't be the only guy giving money, Forest is generally wealthy and the excitement of the last 2 years will raise funds)
Those improvements don't necessarily correlate to success on the field so my hunch could be completely wrong, if some guys don't step up to replace a significant amount of the offensive production they won't win 5 games. Also, if defensive improvements aren't found they will never make it over the hump.
From an outsider's perspective you see major potential problems on both sides of the ball going into the season. The offensive scheme is effective, but who will the leader's be that step up? If there is a major offensive dropoff that will only magnify their issues on defense and put more pressure on them. Without knowing who will step up I'm assuming there will be a dropoff, but how much?
I think most people would say 5 wins considering who they lose, but I'm going with the over, but not by much (6 or 7) I would say they're probably the underdogs in 5 games, listed in order from most underdog to least imo- Magna Vista, Amherst, Brookville, Heritage, & Staunton River (really depends on which side of the field Overstreet is on)
I could certainly be wrong, your opinion is definitely in the majority. They definitely won't be as good as the last 2 years, but I don't feel like I'm way out on a shaky limb by predicting 6 or 7 wins. (Although I don't think anyone else will join me out there) I do believe this will be a rebuilding year of sorts, comparatively speaking to the last 2 years. I just don't think they'll struggle as much as other people do. Heritage dropped to 4-7 last year with a young team, I don't think JF's rebuilding year will put them .500 or below. I think if they can make this a playoff year, they'll put themselves at the precipice of being a team that can reload.
Christmas has said this will be his last coaching stint, Idk how long it will last, but whenever he retires he'll be leaving things in a much better state than when he arrived.
I love it Mike! I definitely agree with you on the fact that Christmas will have them ready. IMO, I think Christmas is up there with Mags as one of the best coaches in the state. He brings great character young men to the field on Fridays as well as well coached, well conditioned, pure football players. No trash talk, just talk of the pads popping between the trenches. I'm rooting for JF to be an year in and year out contender like Salem. That atmosphere at the Salem/JF game last December was something incredible and great for the area. I hope I'm wrong and JF has a great year. I was just thinking realistic but I think JF deserves positive optimism because they've had 2 incredible years back to back. I would love to see Salem, Pulaski, Amherst, JF or GW all have a chance to be the last 4 teams standing in 4a west.
GW had 6+ guys with D1 or D2 offers returning too and had 20+ juniors who recieved significant playing time and contributed in 2014 also. I don't see this with JF. Like I stated to Mike, I want JF to go undefeated. I want to see JF or Salem or Amherst or Pulaski represent 4a west and have the chance to accomplish what Salem accomplished last year. Looking at JF's roster, I see that all of their major contributors in 2015 has graduated. I'm not doubting Christmas at all.. He's a hell of a coach, but there's only so much even a great coach can do. JF has been known to be a bad defensive team and from the 2 games that I saw in person (Woodgrove and 2nd Salem game) their best defensive players are gone as well as Cole, Navy and Cam on offense (all 3 were their in the top 4 of the best players on defense and the 4th was senior #6 Sean Burch). There should be optimism, but also some realism also.
I'll also add, only once in a blue moon is a program blessed with talent like a Navy Jones. I put him in the category with David Wilson, Vic Hall, Peter Rose, Logan Thomas, Chris Cook at Heritage (I know there's more but you guys get my jist).. I will add that Salem fans are very fortunate to have DeAngelo Ramsey who I think will be in that category soon. Kid is going to do very big things. Players like that don't come around that often.
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2016 will be an interesting year for JF. I seriously doubt you will see many 50+ point games, which I think actually hurt them in the long run last year. They will now have to focus much more on defense and develop a passing game. If they developed a short passing game last year I think they would have been unstoppable. It was something they wanted to work on early but then Jones just kept scoring every time he touched the ball.
Their current QB is not a runner but is a big, smart player with a good arm. With their year round strength training they will always be competitive. Also, something that is always overlooked is their offensive line. Navy Jones was simply amazing but if the first hole isn't opened for him (he actually scored most of his TD's from between the tackles) he doesn't go far. Jake Grove is a great O line coach and will have those kids ready no matter what. Mentally and physically. They will still score but it will be from grinding their way down the field.
I would expect a heavy emphasis on defense this year. Although they lost a lot of seniors on defense as well they should be solid and strong. What they may lack is experience and speed in DB's. All of their DB's are gone and they were all 3 year starters.
Like I said, should be an interesting year.
There are points here. JF seemed to be weak defensively. I agree. I'm not sure if that was a complete defensive issue or if the offense scoring so quickly and Frequently had something to do with it.
I did quote how many GW TDs were lost and believed they would take a step back after 2014. I thought the same thing about Salem. Wrong on both.
DeAngelo Ramsey did have a major impact in the playoffs against JF and LT. He certainly stood out and was only a Sophomore. GL to him.
I think their defense looked worse on paper than what they really were. When your offense goes on the field and scores in 3 plays, your defense is on the field a whole lot more, giving opponents many more opportunities to score and not much rest for the defense.
Thanks for the information. I didn't have any specific info on individual players or positions.
They will definitely be coached up, and be ready. Just of note, I would consider 6-4 is a very bad year in Stephen City. I think Martinsburg and Fort Hill will create the biggest challenges by far, both games being away. Both of those teams have like a 99 percent winning percentage at home, and I don't think FH has lost at home in many years. I would consider 8-2 a solid year for this young team. That first game at home against Louisa will be a good measuring stick for what's to come for the rest of the year, they have had a good year down there in mineral, va with coach Fisher back and he will have them ready and after last year they will be better prepared. I fully expect them to go for it on fourth down , never punt even if they are backed up to there end zone. That is his style of coaching. They have some solid athletic talent also. Sherando will hopefully get a big senior year from Rivers, and with the attention he will get on both sides of the ball will allow a lot of other playmakers to succeed. Cordell will also have a big year also in my opinion. Sherando will need solid QB play to beat the teams that they should beat.
Millbrook, will be tough with PK running the ball, Louisa , EV, and even JW could be big challenges, but that's the schedule and they will need to be ready every week.