Toggle sidebar

2025 Phillies Thread

Tom McAndrew

Tom McAndrew

BWI Staff
Staff member
Oct 27, 2021
58,214
43,834
113
Pitchers and Catchers report in less than two weeks, and I generally start the next season's Phillies thread end of Jan./beginning of Feb., so it's time to start the 2025 Phillies thread. Please use this thread for all discussions concerning the Philadelphia Phillies for the remaining offseason, spring training, regular season, hopefully the MLB playoffs, and then the offseason.

We had a great thread for the 2024 Phillies, as we followed in their quest to return to the World Series. You can access that thread at:

www.on3.com

2024 Phillies Thread - On3

Pitchers and Catchers report in a few weeks, so it's time to start the 202r Phillies thread. Please use this thread for all discussions concerning the Philadelphia Phillies for the remaining offseason, spring training, regular season, hopefully the MLB playoffs, and then the offseason. We had a...
www.on3.com www.on3.com
 
RyanSnyder

RyanSnyder

Well-known member
Staff member
Sep 20, 2021
26,591
132,132
113
Phils need this guy to right the ship this year. Massive year for Abel if he's ever gonna reach his potential.

www.mlb.com

Phils prospect Abel discusses goals for '25

This story was excerpted from Todd Zolecki’s Phillies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
www.mlb.com www.mlb.com
 
Tom McAndrew

Tom McAndrew

BWI Staff
Staff member
Oct 27, 2021
58,214
43,834
113
RyanSnyder said:
Phils need this guy to right the ship this year. Massive year for Abel if he's ever gonna reach his potential.

www.mlb.com

Phils prospect Abel discusses goals for '25

This story was excerpted from Todd Zolecki’s Phillies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
www.mlb.com www.mlb.com
Click to expand...

Scott Lauber had an article recently in the Philadelphia Inquirer, looking at the Phils' top 10 prospects. Culling out just the pitching prospects, he had them listed, in order, as:

1. Andrew Painter
- a no brainer. The expectation is, barring any additional elbow issues, that he'll be joining the rotation at some point this season. He's as good a starting pitching prospect as they've had in many, many, years
2. Moises Chace
- they got him at the trade deadline last season from the Orioles, as part of the package the Orioles gave up for Greg Soto. He exhibited more control in the half season (actually less) that he was with the Phils than he had in his previous years with the Orioles. Only time will tell if what he exhibited in 6 starts was legit, or he'll return to his prior norm. Reportedly, his fastball is legit -- his future is more dependent upon how his slider and changeup develop
3. Mick Abel
- a few years ago, he was thought of as just a tad below Painter as a top project. Alas, the challenge he encountered consistently throwing strikes last season in the minors have really dropped his projection. He throws 5 pitches ... if he can put it together again, he could give the Phils a great deal of flexibility
4. Jean Cabrera
- another pitcher that was added to the 40-man roster in November. Had the Phils not added him, he probably would have been lost in the Rule 5 draft. He split time between Jersey Short and Reading last season, and racked up a lot of Ks. The caution with him is that he's only 5'10" to 5'11", and really skinny, and MLB teams have really gone away from starters under 6'0"
 
Tom McAndrew

Tom McAndrew

BWI Staff
Staff member
Oct 27, 2021
58,214
43,834
113
I would not be opposed to the signing of Estevez. I know the team is over the luxury tax threshold, and Estevez is looking for a good contract. But if they can get him at a decent price, this would be a boost to the bullpen, which is still somewhat thin.

www.phillyvoice.com

MLB rumors: Phillies a good 'fit' for closer Carlos Estévez as offseason drags on

There is no reason the Phillies can't add a few more pieces if the price is right.
www.phillyvoice.com www.phillyvoice.com
 
  • Like
Reactions: WestSideLion
M

MrTailgate

Well-known member
Oct 19, 2021
855
1,588
93
Tom McAndrew said:
I would not be opposed to the signing of Estevez. I know the team is over the luxury tax threshold, and Estevez is looking for a good contract. But if they can get him at a decent price, this would be a boost to the bullpen, which is still somewhat thin.

www.phillyvoice.com

MLB rumors: Phillies a good 'fit' for closer Carlos Estévez as offseason drags on

There is no reason the Phillies can't add a few more pieces if the price is right.
www.phillyvoice.com www.phillyvoice.com
Click to expand...
He signed with KC.
 
  • Sad
Reactions: Tom McAndrew
M

MrTailgate

Well-known member
Oct 19, 2021
855
1,588
93
Tom McAndrew said:
crap. Appears it was announced on Friday, and I missed it. $22M, for 2 year
Click to expand...
This will be a fascinating year as the Phillies transition to the next phase of this era. Next year at this time, a very different set of faces will be assembling in Clearwater. What I’ll be watching early -

1- The starting rotation is on the clock given the timeline for Painter to join the staff midseason. The first story is how visible they make Painter during the Spring. He won’t pitch in games and I’m interested to see exactly how he gets his work in. But the clock will start and this potentially impacts Ranger and the return the Phillies might receive if they elect to move on. Is there a scenario where they go to a six man rotation to manage innings. An expanded rotation could mean that the Phillies keep Ranger and then let him walk with no return?!? That is mind boggling when one considers the value Ranger had in say June last year. The one certainty is that you can NEVER have enough pitching but the incorporation of Painter will be a huge story line.

2- The pen is wildly different than a year ago. Hoffman and Estevez are gone and someone should have to answer that you dealt two regarded farm arms for Estevez only to walk away from him going forward. My antenna is on Kerkering. If this pen is going to be effective, Kerkering must take on an expanded roll and likely position himself as the closer for 2026. I would have thought that Alvarado was on the way out, but he needs to get back to being a hammer for the pen to be sufficient. I thought Jansen was a real possibility to be added before camp opened.

3- The everyday lineup has been a slam dunk for a couple years, but no more. I would be surprised if Bohm, Nick, and JT break camp with them NEXT year. The Phillies want to incorporate young assets and certain mainstays could be on their Phillies curtain call for 2025. The Phillies seem committed to Miller and Crawford otherwise at least one of them would have been traded.

As for this year, I’ll be interested in when and how much they extend Schwarber for and what impact this has on Harper and Boras who have waited patiently for a contract adjustment. I would think you can’t do Schwarber without doing Harper. This one bears watching. The other thing to watch is Turner. I would guess that the Phillies in private would say that Turner has under performed through 2 years. They need to unlock more from Turner and the lineup reconstruction is their way of trying something to make the offense and Turner in particular more efficient. The OF is a great concern in that going forward in 2026, you might have only Crawford penciled in as a definite starter. Its a huge year for Marsh and his career.

I am not feeling it early to be honest. I’ll start running over there tomorrow.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Shadow99, Relayer, WestSideLion and 1 other person
M

MrTailgate

Well-known member
Oct 19, 2021
855
1,588
93
One last thing to watch. Baseball people will tell you that corner OF power is nearly as precious as top of the rotation starters. Personally, if Nick is not going to be here beyond 2026, I would think they possibly move on from him AFTER this year. Taking Nick out of the equation after this year, the Phillies have no corner OF power on their roster or in their system. That’s an BIG issue lurking for this team.

There is one tantalizing scenario. The Blue Jays have chased a lot of the big boys the last two years to no avail. They were supposedly told that the window for an extension with Vladdy Jr closes in February. With them missing on Ohtani and Soto, it’s hard to believe that they whiff on Vladdy Jr. But if Vladdy ever decides to play out this year and then hit free agency next winter, he will go to the top of the totem pole. What does this all have to do with the Phillies? Could there ever be a scenario where you return Harper to RF and have Vladdy at 1B?

Think of the following - OF of Harper, Crawford, Marsh with Schwarber as DH. IF of Vladdy, Stott, Turner, and Miller with Tait catching. Staff of Wheels, Painter, Nola, Sanchez, Luzardo.

Something to think of. In the unlikely event Vladdy hits FA, I could easily see the Phillies being MAJOR players for him.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Shadow99 and laKavosiey-st lion
W

WestSideLion

Well-known member
Oct 6, 2021
3,543
3,964
113
MrTailgate said:
One last thing to watch. Baseball people will tell you that corner OF power is nearly as precious as top of the rotation starters. Personally, if Nick is not going to be here beyond 2026, I would think they possibly move on from him AFTER this year. Taking Nick out of the equation after this year, the Phillies have no corner OF power on their roster or in their system. That’s an BIG issue lurking for this team.

There is one tantalizing scenario. The Blue Jays have chased a lot of the big boys the last two years to no avail. They were supposedly told that the window for an extension with Vladdy Jr closes in February. With them missing on Ohtani and Soto, it’s hard to believe that they whiff on Vladdy Jr. But if Vladdy ever decides to play out this year and then hit free agency next winter, he will go to the top of the totem pole. What does this all have to do with the Phillies? Could there ever be a scenario where you return Harper to RF and have Vladdy at 1B?

Think of the following - OF of Harper, Crawford, Marsh with Schwarber as DH. IF of Vladdy, Stott, Turner, and Miller with Tait catching. Staff of Wheels, Painter, Nola, Sanchez, Luzardo.

Something to think of. In the unlikely event Vladdy hits FA, I could easily see the Phillies being MAJOR players for him.
Click to expand...
I think the whole world would be after Vlad Jr. The biggest thing is that the Phillies will have a lot more flexibility after this season. While I don’t like your “ho-hum” vibe on 2025, them dropping enough contracts to materially retool for 2026 is at least promising.
 
Tom McAndrew

Tom McAndrew

BWI Staff
Staff member
Oct 27, 2021
58,214
43,834
113
MrTailgate said:
2- The pen is wildly different than a year ago. Hoffman and Estevez are gone and someone should have to answer that you dealt two regarded farm arms for Estevez only to walk away from him going forward. My antenna is on Kerkering. If this pen is going to be effective, Kerkering must take on an expanded roll and likely position himself as the closer for 2026. I would have thought that Alvarado was on the way out, but he needs to get back to being a hammer for the pen to be sufficient. I thought Jansen was a real possibility to be added before camp opened.
Click to expand...

As usual, your post was excellent, and raised a number of points. I wanted to focus/respond to just one of them. The part that I bolded in your post, is something I don't think has been talked about/written about/discussed enough. While the Fightins were all-in on going for the title last year, it still doesn't excuse giving up what they did for less than half a season, and then walking away from Estevez. It's interesting that he ended up signing with KC, who was trying to get him when the Phils traded for him. KC ended up not giving up anything (current players or prospects), and still landed Estevez several months after they wanted to get him. The Fightins, on the other side. lost good prospects, and then loss Estevez. That doesn't seem like smart planning to me.
 
W

WestSideLion

Well-known member
Oct 6, 2021
3,543
3,964
113
Tom McAndrew said:
As usual, your post was excellent, and raised a number of points. I wanted to focus/respond to just one of them. The part that I bolded in your post, is something I don't think has been talked about/written about/discussed enough. While the Fightins were all-in on going for the title last year, it still doesn't excuse giving up what they did for less than half a season, and then walking away from Estevez. It's interesting that he ended up signing with KC, who was trying to get him when the Phils traded for him. KC ended up not giving up anything (current players or prospects), and still landed Estevez several months after they wanted to get him. The Fightins, on the other side. lost good prospects, and then loss Estevez. That doesn't seem like smart planning to me.
Click to expand...
Isn’t that the rap on Dombrowski? He’s power moves and instant gratification, and is known to drain a farm system in the process.

You can’t win them all, but trading for a closer (long-term problem) and not even mounting an attempt to resign him is a complete fail. There must have been something else with Estevez we don’t know about.
 
Tom McAndrew

Tom McAndrew

BWI Staff
Staff member
Oct 27, 2021
58,214
43,834
113
WestSideLion said:
Isn’t that the rap on Dombrowski? He’s power moves and instant gratification, and is known to drain a farm system in the process.

You can’t win them all, but trading for a closer (long-term problem) and not even mounting an attempt to resign him is a complete fail. There must have been something else with Estevez we don’t know about.
Click to expand...

I did look for hints of "something else with Estevez" in articles at the end of last season/in the month(s) that followed, but never came upon anything. Perhaps @MrTailgate can learn things about this while he's at Clearwater.

That is the rap against Dave Dombrowski -- that when he leaves a program, he's usually stripped it of prospects that can help in the next few seasons. It's always a balancing act, in that when you're one of the top teams, you have to go for the championship. And yet, if you trade away all the team's top prospects in the minors to get there, then it will catch up to you. (The Dodgers, with their contract tricks of late, seem to be trying to disprove that theory.)
 
  • Like
Reactions: WestSideLion
P

[email protected]

Well-known member
Oct 7, 2021
591
688
93
MrTailgate said:
One last thing to watch. Baseball people will tell you that corner OF power is nearly as precious as top of the rotation starters. Personally, if Nick is not going to be here beyond 2026, I would think they possibly move on from him AFTER this year. Taking Nick out of the equation after this year, the Phillies have no corner OF power on their roster or in their system. That’s an BIG issue lurking for this team.

There is one tantalizing scenario. The Blue Jays have chased a lot of the big boys the last two years to no avail. They were supposedly told that the window for an extension with Vladdy Jr closes in February. With them missing on Ohtani and Soto, it’s hard to believe that they whiff on Vladdy Jr. But if Vladdy ever decides to play out this year and then hit free agency next winter, he will go to the top of the totem pole. What does this all have to do with the Phillies? Could there ever be a scenario where you return Harper to RF and have Vladdy at 1B?

Think of the following - OF of Harper, Crawford, Marsh with Schwarber as DH. IF of Vladdy, Stott, Turner, and Miller with Tait catching. Staff of Wheels, Painter, Nola, Sanchez, Luzardo.

Something to think of. In the unlikely event Vladdy hits FA, I could easily see the Phillies being MAJOR players for him.
Click to expand...
Ranger
 
M

MrTailgate

Well-known member
Oct 19, 2021
855
1,588
93
Tom McAndrew said:
As usual, your post was excellent, and raised a number of points. I wanted to focus/respond to just one of them. The part that I bolded in your post, is something I don't think has been talked about/written about/discussed enough. While the Fightins were all-in on going for the title last year, it still doesn't excuse giving up what they did for less than half a season, and then walking away from Estevez. It's interesting that he ended up signing with KC, who was trying to get him when the Phils traded for him. KC ended up not giving up anything (current players or prospects), and still landed Estevez several months after they wanted to get him. The Fightins, on the other side. lost good prospects, and then loss Estevez. That doesn't seem like smart planning to me.
Click to expand...
I think you hit the point exactly. There was a change in mindset this off-season from the good old days of spending stupid money sentiment. I think the Phillies felt they needed to bolster the pen for a deep run last year and made the move with Estevez figuring they needed a deep pen given the grind they expected and the volume of games they would play. This off-season their spending was basically on contract escalations and moves they hope work out for just this year. They cheaped out on the back of the pen versus paying more and committing multiple years to Hoffman and/or Estevez.

What had me scratching my head a bit was that you gave up good assets to get him and then didn’t pursue him in the offseason when you needed the same skill set that he provides. The money he got from KC will not be different than you will pay this year and next when you go out and pursue pen help again next year. So, the only thing that I can surmise is that he was not quite as good as you thought he would be when you acquired him but it cost you farm assets to learn this. And you did not see value in securing him for two years at comparable money versus a risk you took for this year in the Jays reliever and the uncertainty of pen help that you will need again next year.

It does seem that something is slightly amiss.
 
  • Like
Reactions: WestSideLion
M

MrTailgate

Well-known member
Oct 19, 2021
855
1,588
93
Tom McAndrew said:
I did look for hints of "something else with Estevez" in articles at the end of last season/in the month(s) that followed, but never came upon anything. Perhaps @MrTailgate can learn things about this while he's at Clearwater.

That is the rap against Dave Dombrowski -- that when he leaves a program, he's usually stripped it of prospects that can help in the next few seasons. It's always a balancing act, in that when you're one of the top teams, you have to go for the championship. And yet, if you trade away all the team's top prospects in the minors to get there, then it will catch up to you. (The Dodgers, with their contract tricks of late, seem to be trying to disprove that theory.)
Click to expand...
Dombrowski is not a franchise builder, he’s a guy to get you over the finish line. You’re right. I think it’s telling that they would not part with Painter, Miller, or Crawford. I think that this is an admission that you took your swings and that this year is a reset to the next stage of this era. I think they made the right choice protecting the assets. If it’s chalk, the NL rep will need to beat two of say the Phillies, Braves, Mets, and Dodgers. Getting out of the NL is heavy lifting. Right now, I don’t see the Phillies being capable of that for this year.
 
  • Like
Reactions: WestSideLion
W

WestSideLion

Well-known member
Oct 6, 2021
3,543
3,964
113
MrTailgate said:
Dombrowski is not a franchise builder, he’s a guy to get you over the finish line. You’re right. I think it’s telling that they would not part with Painter, Miller, or Crawford. I think that this is an admission that you took your swings and that this year is a reset to the next stage of this era. I think they made the right choice protecting the assets. If it’s chalk, the NL rep will need to beat two of say the Phillies, Braves, Mets, and Dodgers. Getting out of the NL is heavy lifting. Right now, I don’t see the Phillies being capable of that for this year.
Click to expand...
Possibly not for a few years with this Dodgers team.
 
RyanSnyder

RyanSnyder

Well-known member
Staff member
Sep 20, 2021
26,591
132,132
113
Our ticket package includes the Thursday matinee game vs the Rockies or I’d consider maybe going down for Opening Day. I’ve never been to Opening Day. I’ll have to check that off the list one of these years with my sons.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom