As the sun set on Spring Training 2025, random thoughts from Clearwater-
1- Biggest story - Ranger. I can’t believe where we are as the season starts. In a contract year, I thought Ranger would be in the best shape of his career given the money at stake and place in the Phillies planning beyond this year.
Instead, we face Ranger basically needing another Spring Training timeline to get ready. The biggest advantage the Phillies had in their projected starting 5 has been neutralized out of the gate as the Phillies face another season start with a black hole at #5 with Walker. They will skip him to the extent possible and it’s manageable if Ranger is good to go May 1, but I’m concerned with Ranger.
2- What needs to go right? Daycare takes a step forward. Bohm, Stott, and Marsh are absolutely critical. If there is a parade in November, it will likely be because Daycare all stepped forward. Bohm will be fine, Stott and Marsh are keys to creating length in the lineup.
They need to squeeze one more year out of Nick and they also need to have Alvarado and Strahm be successful from the left side out of the pen and BOTH contribute. I think Kepler will be an upgrade and I think Painter will provide a lot of juice if he arrives in July and is as advertised. The rotation can be dominant and there is the real chance that they have MULTIPLE All Stars and CY finalists on their staff.
3- What can go wrong? Ranger isn't right and they slip on the #5 banana peel for half the season at least until Painter arrives. If Ranger is a problem and Painter is forced to start, it removes the possibility of different roles for Painter that might increase his contribution this year. I love the prospect of Painter in the pen post season. That might not be a possibility if he uses his 2025 innings only as a regular season starter.
I’m a tad concerned with the left side of the pen. If Strahm isn’t healthy it puts too much of a load on Alvarado. They need BOTH of these guys to be healthy and effective.
Offensively, if Daycare doesn’t provide length and there is any slippage in the core, they could struggle to score consistently.
Prediction - I actually like where they are in that everyone has conceded the pennant to the Dodgers or healthier Braves. The Phillies are not the hunted. If they catch some breaks they could be the last team standing. I have no idea and feel more uncertain this year compared to the last couple years.
I sat there on multiple days in Clearwater watching eagles flying over the field. That has to be a sign. Grease the poles.