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2AA/A WHO HAS THE BIG MO REVISITED

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TheMule_rivals384855

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Feb 5, 2003
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For explanation of momentum please see my previous post last week.

Teams with the Big Mo : West Stokes

Teams with the Little Mo : Clinton, Randleman, Salisbury

Teams stuck in Neutral : Reidsville, Northeastern, Burns

Teams Digressing : Shelby

Big Mo means team has a sharp upward trend per calpreps. Little Mo means team has a slight upward trend per calpreps. Neutral means no trend per calpreps. Digressing means team has a slight downward trend per calpreps.

So, what if anything does this mean for the games this week?

First, lets look at the most competitive game according to the computer power rankings.

NORTHEASTERN AT CLINTON.

Calpreps has Clinton a 6 point favorite.
Massey has Northeastern a 1.5 point favorite with a 52% chance of winning.
Brian Simmons has not yet posted his numbers but I anticipate he will have Clinton about a 2 point favorite.

It is highly unusual for the computer programs to disagree on any outcome as all of them are about 80% or more accurate.

SALISBURY AT RANDLEMAN

Calpreps has Randleman a 11 point favorite.
Massey has Randleman a 3.5 point favorite with a 57% chance of winning.
I anticipate Simmons will have Randleman about a 4 point favorite.

BURNS AT SHELBY

Calpreps has Shelby a 13 point favorite.
Massey has Shelby a 16.5 point favorite with a 84% chance of winning.
I anticipate Simmons will have Shelby about a 10 point favorite.

WEST STOKES AT REIDSVILLE

Calpreps has Reidsville a 21 point favorite.
Massey has Reidsville a 28.5 point favorite with a 97% chance of winning.
I anticipate Simmons will have Reidsville about a 26 point favorite.

So, what say you?
 
R

rambbq

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lol.....I know where the Mule is coming from but jeez....Reidsville has won 8 straight since their shootout loss to East Surry....and have pitched 5 shut outs in the last 8 games while outscoring their opponents in those last 8 games 390-34.....strange to me that would be considered "neutral".............
 
T

TheMule_rivals384855

All-Conference
Feb 5, 2003
5,110
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rambbq said:
lol.....I know where the Mule is coming from but jeez....Reidsville has won 8 straight since their shootout loss to East Surry....and have pitched 5 shut outs in the last 8 games while outscoring their opponents in those last 8 games 390-34.....strange to me that would be considered "neutral".............
Click to expand...

Its because Reidsville did not cover the point spread against Brevard. When you don't cover, you lose rating points. Rams went from slightly upward trend to neutral because of not covering last week.

You might want to reread my post. I am reporting what Calpreps computer model determines.
 
D

daagoob

Heisman
Dec 4, 2010
8,294
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My heads about to explode.
Calpreps and Massey both had NE losing last week on the road at Swe and fairly convincingly. Not only do we win, but we win by 15. Blowout Goldsboro, blowout Swo, beat the #2 seed Swe at their place. Yeah I'd say we're stuck in neutral.
 
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goldenlions04

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TheMule said:
For explanation of momentum please see my previous post last week.

Teams with the Big Mo : West Stokes

Teams with the Little Mo : Clinton, Randleman, Salisbury

Teams stuck in Neutral : Reidsville, Northeastern, Burns

Teams Digressing : Shelby

Big Mo means team has a sharp upward trend per calpreps. Little Mo means team has a slight upward trend per calpreps. Neutral means no trend per calpreps. Digressing means team has a slight downward trend per calpreps.

So, what if anything does this mean for the games this week?

First, lets look at the most competitive game according to the computer power rankings.

NORTHEASTERN AT CLINTON.

Calpreps has Clinton a 6 point favorite.
Massey has Northeastern a 1.5 point favorite with a 52% chance of winning.
Brian Simmons has not yet posted his numbers but I anticipate he will have Clinton about a 2 point favorite.

It is highly unusual for the computer programs to disagree on any outcome as all of them are about 80% or more accurate.

SALISBURY AT RANDLEMAN

Calpreps has Randleman a 11 point favorite.
Massey has Randleman a 3.5 point favorite with a 57% chance of winning.
I anticipate Simmons will have Randleman about a 4 point favorite.

BURNS AT SHELBY

Calpreps has Shelby a 13 point favorite.
Massey has Shelby a 16.5 point favorite with a 84% chance of winning.
I anticipate Simmons will have Shelby about a 10 point favorite.

WEST STOKES AT REIDSVILLE

Calpreps has Reidsville a 21 point favorite.
Massey has Reidsville a 28.5 point favorite with a 97% chance of winning.
I anticipate Simmons will have Reidsville about a 26 point favorite.

So, what say you?
Click to expand...

Shelby Digressing?

Shelby 56-7 over West Iredell
Shelby 49-7 over Maiden
Shelby 42-7 over West Lincoln

Umm sorry, that's an extremely unwise statement.
 
M

Moparforever

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I think that Burns has some pep in their step after the win over North Lincolnton and will be super confident going into Friday against Shelby
 
T

TheMule_rivals384855

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Maiden Creek said:
Margin of victory certainly showing a downward trend!
Yep.....digressing!
Click to expand...

You might be on to something there, Maiden.

Shelby pal Frankie, who I sometimes suspect may have lost more than his password, believes computer football forecasting models are written with bias for or against certain teams.

'Ol Frank might be spot on. It could be that of all the thousands and thousands of high schools playing football that calpreps, max preps, massey, and simmons have somehow conspired to be anti-bias against a relatively small school located in Shelby, North Carolina.

Yep. The more I think about it the more it could be what is happening here.

Definitely something to ponder.:confused::confused::confused::confused:
 
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TheMule_rivals384855

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daagoob said:
My heads about to explode.
Calpreps and Massey both had NE losing last week on the road at Swe and fairly convincingly. Not only do we win, but we win by 15. Blowout Goldsboro, blowout Swo, beat the #2 seed Swe at their place. Yeah I'd say we're stuck in neutral.
Click to expand...

Yeah, Goob, very impressive performance by your NE team over the past month or so. Very impressive.

Oh, just one thing, you might just want to peek over at the Clinton Dark Horses scores the past month.

After all, there will be two teams playing for the East 2A Championship Friday.;):D
 
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daagoob

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Dec 4, 2010
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TheMule said:
Yeah, Goob, very impressive performance by your NE team over the past month or so. Very impressive.

Oh, just one thing, you might just want to peek over at the Clinton Dark Horses scores the past month.

After all, there will be two teams playing for the East 2A Championship Friday.;):D
Click to expand...

Already have Mule. We have nothing to prove. Northeastern played the toughest ooc schedule of any 2a school. Our coach has done miraculous coaching job considering the adjustments he made after the loss of our star qb. Our kids are battled tested and ready. If we lose then I'll accept it and move on but it's going to take one helluva team to beat us. If you could see what I've been seeing over the last two months you'd understand.
 
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Maiden Creek

Maiden Creek

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daagoob said:
Already have Mule. We have nothing to prove. Northeastern played the toughest ooc schedule of any 2a school. Our coach has done miraculous coaching job considering the adjustments he made after the loss of our star qb. Our kids are battled tested and ready. If we lose then I'll accept it and move on but it's going to take one helluva team to beat us. If you could see what I've been seeing over the last two months you'd understand.
Click to expand...
Tell’em Goob! You been holding back all year! Make it Rain! Nor’easter!
 
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It's Frank

It's Frank

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TheMule said:
You might be on to something there, Maiden.

Shelby pal Frankie, who I sometimes suspect may have lost more than his password, believes computer football forecasting models are written with bias for or against certain teams.

'Ol Frank might be spot on. It could be that of all the thousands and thousands of high schools playing football that calpreps, max preps, massey, and simmons have somehow conspired to be anti-bias against a relatively small school located in Shelby, North Carolina.

Yep. The more I think about it the more it could be what is happening here.

Definitely something to ponder.:confused::confused::confused::confused:
Click to expand...

Nice try, Donkey.

You asked a question about computer programs, I gave a general answer.

Programs will prioritize whatever values a programmer wants it to, and yes those values can be biased if the programmer wants to favor one factor more so than others.

Kinda like that AMPR yall kept whinning about because Reidsville was ranked so low. Thats because the program didnt place value on scoring margins, and more value on SOS and opponent SOS.

But that's enough of a computer lesson for today. For further information, research the old BCS from college football.
 
D

daagoob

Heisman
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Maiden Creek said:
Tell’em Goob! You been holding back all year! Make it Rain! Nor’easter!
Click to expand...

Hey Maiden Creek you got that right. Like SWE they don't even know what's about to hit them. Sh#* gets real in less than 72. All the talk amongst us posters will end. They obviously have a really good team, I just think ours is better. If I'm wrong I'll be the first to congratulate them. Friday night can't get here fast enough. I'm amped up and ready!!!! I love this team of ours and next season may just be one for the record books. Our coaches have coached to perfection this year and the Shrine bowl is getting one heck of a coach.
 
Wizard of the East

Wizard of the East

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daagoob said:
Already have Mule. We have nothing to prove. Northeastern played the toughest ooc schedule of any 2a school. Our coach has done miraculous coaching job considering the adjustments he made after the loss of our star qb. Our kids are battled tested and ready. If we lose then I'll accept it and move on but it's going to take one helluva team to beat us. If you could see what I've been seeing over the last two months you'd understand.
Click to expand...
The DarkHorses could very well be that one helluva team. The DarkHorses teams and fan base have a 30 years history of standards that make a team championship caliber. This team is meeting that standard.
 
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Chopper747

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goldenlions04 said:
Shelby Digressing?

Shelby 56-7 over West Iredell
Shelby 49-7 over Maiden
Shelby 42-7 over West Lincoln

Umm sorry, that's an extremely unwise statement.
Click to expand...

Well the score is 7 less points every game, so the logic is accurate from a statistic standpoint.
 
L

Lion Attack

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Chopper747 said:
Well the score is 7 less points every game, so the logic is accurate from a statistic standpoint.
Click to expand...
Even though the quality of opponent is stronger by the round? Digression, I would think, is averaging over 50 points per game, then only scoring 24 in your last outing, and not covering the spread, and since that one poster who lurks like hell in our threads, but never posts anything, reads posts in thorough detail, and likes to talk “who beat who”, I am impressed with our margin of victory vs Maiden who also beat Newton Conover.
 
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daagoob

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Wizard of the East said:
The DarkHorses could very well be that one helluva team. The DarkHorses teams and fan base have a 30 years history of standards that make a team championship caliber. This team is meeting that standard.
Click to expand...
Wiz I know nothing about Clinton other than what's posted up here or those that have seen them play in person. Going off of that I like our chances chances about as much as I liked them against Swe. I just think we're going to win. I'm leaving Elizabeth City at 1pm and should be arriving in Clinton around 4 30. Like Darkhorse said, I am very excited for this game and will probably stand up the whole time. I agree with Bud on this game. I think it will most likely come down to coaching.
 
D

daagoob

Heisman
Dec 4, 2010
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Thanks guys, No need to go on Reidsville Ram 90. We lost and didn't make excuses. We were bar far the most talented team on the field, we just lost. Maybe it was coaching, not sure, but if it was our coach has definitely learned from it. He's put on well heck of a coaching clinic this year. You need to remember, you guys are always in the cship game, we are very rarely. That has to make it easier on a coach
 
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TheMule_rivals384855

All-Conference
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daagoob said:
Thanks guys, No need to go on Reidsville Ram 90. We lost and didn't make excuses. We were bar far the most talented team on the field, we just lost. Maybe it was coaching, not sure, but if it was our coach has definitely learned from it. He's put on well heck of a coaching clinic this year. You need to remember, you guys are always in the cship game, we are very rarely. That has to make it easier on a coach
Click to expand...

Well put, goob. Reidsville was a very young team last year, starting many sophomores and was not expected to contend for a state championship.

Those sophs are now Juniors and this year and the next should be some of the Rams best teams.

Good luck Friday and safe driving!
 
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daagoob

Heisman
Dec 4, 2010
8,294
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TheMule said:
Well put, goob. Reidsville was a very young team last year, starting many sophomores and was not expected to contend for a state championship.

Those sophs are now Juniors and this year and the next should be some of the Rams best teams.

Good luck Friday and safe driving!
Click to expand...
Thanks Mule
 
D

daagoob

Heisman
Dec 4, 2010
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Maiden Creek said:
Tell’em Goob! You been holding back all year! Make it Rain! Nor’easter!
Click to expand...
Maiden Creek, I sure could use your help on the NE-Clinton thread. They aren't believers!!!!! I'm trying to prepare them for what's coming!! We are only 48 hrs out!!! Maybe you can get thru to them!!!! LOL, before it's to late!!LOL!!!
 
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