5 Dukies in first round
- Thread starter Willcampbell
- Start date
I honestly don't care a bit about the NBA. Stick around so I can watch you fellas more.
Oh, I see. Was just going on Will's original post that stated Kennard was ahead of Grayson. Went and looked at it. Current rankings (which change):
Tatum - 1
Giles - 5
Bolden - 18
Allen - 24
Kennard - 30
One ridiculous thing about that ranking - Josh Hart is nowhere to be found. He's a stud of a combo guard who can rebound, shoot (45% from 3), dribble, pass, and is physical at 6'6, 215. He's a top 20-25 player in this draft, easy, imo (even though I get that the NBA goes on potential and so freshmen are a high commodity).
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They have Kennard at 30 going to the Utah Jazz. But I don't see that happening. Don't the Jazz already have a pretty darn good left-handed shooting guard?
Well this is a depressing thread. My wish is the NBA goes bankrupt and these kids actually play college ball for a while for the team I love? I can dream..
So, anyone want to speculate on the chances as re: who is going/staying after this season?
Preseason I'd have said chances of leaving for the NBA after this season were:
99% - Giles, Tatum, Grayson
75% - Bolden
40% - Jackson
30% - Kennard
Now?? The only one I see about the same is Tatum.
I'm bad at predictions but I'd say current chances of leaving for the NBA after this season are:
Tatum - 98%
Giles - 85%
Grayson - 75%
Kennard/Bolden - 50%
Jackson - 30%
Thoughts? I'm hoping someone more knowledgeable than I am weighs in on this. I'm very curious. Obviously a lot can change between now and April, of course.
Preseason I'd have said chances of leaving for the NBA after this season were:
99% - Giles, Tatum, Grayson
75% - Bolden
40% - Jackson
30% - Kennard
Now?? The only one I see about the same is Tatum.
I'm bad at predictions but I'd say current chances of leaving for the NBA after this season are:
Tatum - 98%
Giles - 85%
Grayson - 75%
Kennard/Bolden - 50%
Jackson - 30%
Thoughts? I'm hoping someone more knowledgeable than I am weighs in on this. I'm very curious. Obviously a lot can change between now and April, of course.
I'm not knowledgeable, but I'd put Jackson at less than 10% chance going to draft. Grayson might be closer to 50%, even if he graduates. Everything else looks about right to me. IMO, Harry's draft position this year is set firmly in the top 10. If he comes back for another year, the odds of his stock falling outweigh the odds that he moves up a few slots. I'd recommend he takes that contract now and try and play into a great second contract as a pro. Duke will let him finish his degree later if basketball doesn't work out.
I'm kinda starting to think Grayson might be back. He's not even on the latest mock draft projections.
Giles and Tatum are gone. Bolden hasn't showed a lot...yet...so I don't know about him.
And I think Grayson is gone too, if he is still a 1st round pick (not so sure if he slips badly). I don't think he would subject himself to the continuing inquisition he's facing. If he leaves that Duke jersey behind he's taking a big load off his shoulders. Plenty of mayhem going on in the NBA to help him keep a lower profile.
OFC
And I think Grayson is gone too, if he is still a 1st round pick (not so sure if he slips badly). I don't think he would subject himself to the continuing inquisition he's facing. If he leaves that Duke jersey behind he's taking a big load off his shoulders. Plenty of mayhem going on in the NBA to help him keep a lower profile.
OFC
Giles and Tatum are both 100% locks. I'd say Bolden is 80%. Players can develop in the NBA too....not just college.
It's hard for me to say on Grayson. I'd still put him at over 50%, and probably closer to 75 than 50 to be honest. His plan all along has been for this season to be his last. Things do change, however, so we'll see what happens.
I'm still of the belief that Luke is less than 50%, and maybe closer to 25 than 50. Most of the mock drafts I've seen put him in the mid-to-upper 20s, at best. Some still say second round. He will improve his draft stock by coming back. That said, this season isn't over yet, and despite what people will tell you, Duke is still a dangerous basketball team. If they reach their potential then we could lose six guys to the NBA.
As for Frank, I do believe he will return. Right now he's a player without a position in the NBA. I think his focus is going to be on proving he's able to play point guard for scouts. He won't be able to prove that this season.
It's hard for me to say on Grayson. I'd still put him at over 50%, and probably closer to 75 than 50 to be honest. His plan all along has been for this season to be his last. Things do change, however, so we'll see what happens.
I'm still of the belief that Luke is less than 50%, and maybe closer to 25 than 50. Most of the mock drafts I've seen put him in the mid-to-upper 20s, at best. Some still say second round. He will improve his draft stock by coming back. That said, this season isn't over yet, and despite what people will tell you, Duke is still a dangerous basketball team. If they reach their potential then we could lose six guys to the NBA.
As for Frank, I do believe he will return. Right now he's a player without a position in the NBA. I think his focus is going to be on proving he's able to play point guard for scouts. He won't be able to prove that this season.
I hate the discussion of who will leave. I would rather they all come back so they can REPEAT as NCAA 2018 Champs.
I'd say Tatum.and Giles are 100%
Kennard is 50% i only say this because if he has a high pick opportunity he might bolt due to grayson slipping this season.
Grayson is 65%
Bolden is a complete mystery and I will say 30%
Jackson maybe 10%
Kennard is 50% i only say this because if he has a high pick opportunity he might bolt due to grayson slipping this season.
Grayson is 65%
Bolden is a complete mystery and I will say 30%
Jackson maybe 10%
I would be absolutely shocked if Grayson is back. Some on this board think he should be dismissed from the team if he trips someone again, coupled with the fact of all of the scrutiny he has been under there is no way he subjects himself to another year of that.
Agree with this. I know Luke has caught some grief lately for whatever reason, but he will be very good at the next level. His basketball IQ is out the roof. All around he will be really good in college and in the league.
I'd be more surprised by Luke leaving than Bolden, and I don't think Bolden will finish strong. I just really don't see him in Duke blue next season.
Frank and Luke potentially will return, and I'd say there's a good chance of that.
I do feel like this off-season is going to be very interesting.
well this thread just shows me i could not evaluate talent for a living. if bolden is a lottery pick, or 1st rounder then that would prove i know nothing. i never saw the hype in any of his highlight clips and typically when i see those i think said player is destined to be a NBA HOFer. factor in what he have yet to see at duke, and all the other things that we have seen and spoke about much on this site i dont see how bolden is an nba player. his demeanor on the bench, not getting up when a player comes to the bench for a rest, and the look of he doesnt give a damn about anything when playing. i really thought maybe he turned a corner when he dove on the floor for a loose ball in a recent home game. well there was no corner turned that i can see. i hope he figures it out and shows what all of this potential is. right now he looks like someone who is not happy to be at duke.
I agree I don't see it at all. He looks no more ready then the plumlees as freshmen or even zoo!
Luke will go to NBA camps/workouts this Spring to gauge his value. If he is told his is a 1st rounder, then he is gone. That is a fact.
Given the way the chemistry (or lack thereof) has sorted out this year so far, I could very much envision this scenario.
OFC
Luke is already in the first round in every mock so is it a fact that he is gone?
Has been in the conversation since proday.
Bolden I think goes off potential after a strong showing at the columbine and Giles and Tatum are gone.
Jackson isn't going anywhere and Grayson is a mystery. He can go to the columbine and show out and get drafted in the first or chose to come back.
Guessing that Giles and Tatum are locks to be gone. Bolden doesn't seem thrilled about how this season has been playing out so he'll go and be drafted based on potential. Grayson will still go as planned. The wildcard is Luke. If he goes, our team's potential for next season takes a HUGE hit. I never got the hype about Grayson being a top player of the year candidate this season because I thought our roster was too loaded. Next year, I really think Luke has the potential to be that guy.
To preface this, I know nothing, I know nobody, I'm just a fan who is speculating.
I think Tatum and Giles are gone, 100%.
I think Luke comes back for his third and last season. No matter what happens this season I just get the feeling he wants to come back and play another season.
I think Bolden transfers to a place where he can be a centerpiece and play big minutes.
I think Grayson comes back. Hear me out. Maybe I'm crazy. I think his draft stock is down in a stacked year. I think playing point has hurt his draft position. Also, from all accounts I have read the NBA is not a priority to him. I think we land a point guard for next year, Grayson comes back to play a more natural 2, behaves himself, has a solid year coming off screens shooting 3's, shows strong leadership on and off the court and is drafted in the first round in 2018.
Alan
I think Tatum and Giles are gone, 100%.
I think Luke comes back for his third and last season. No matter what happens this season I just get the feeling he wants to come back and play another season.
I think Bolden transfers to a place where he can be a centerpiece and play big minutes.
I think Grayson comes back. Hear me out. Maybe I'm crazy. I think his draft stock is down in a stacked year. I think playing point has hurt his draft position. Also, from all accounts I have read the NBA is not a priority to him. I think we land a point guard for next year, Grayson comes back to play a more natural 2, behaves himself, has a solid year coming off screens shooting 3's, shows strong leadership on and off the court and is drafted in the first round in 2018.
Alan
They will probably go for the money but as of today we do not have a first rounder on the team as far as what they have shown.
I'm sure Giles will move on if his stock is going to get him in the top half of the 1st round. And, so, too, Tatum who is likely a top 15 pick. That's nonsense, though. If I'm an NBA GM, no way would I draft any Duke player in the top 15 this year (save a miraculous turnaround).
Playing NBA GM - a rundown:
Giles ... I would not draft him in round 1. Too many question-marks with his injuries. Talent? Yes. But he is so tentative and and who really knows. If I were Giles, I'd actually stay at Duke and see what happens. But, he may actually go to a quality team at the end of round 1. GM: I might consider him at the end of round 1 but honestly I would probably pass.
Tatum ... He obviously has offensive skills and size. But, he is not super quick or strong and that does not bode well for the NBA. How will he guard a 6'9 speedster or PF? He certainly can't guard an NBA 2. He will have to make a living on the offensive side and if he can't shoot the long range 3 - he's going to take a long time to develop at great risk. GM: depending on need, I would consider from 15 (at best) to the end of the round.
Bolden ... He is 3, maybe 2, years away. I also agree that I think he'll transfer. He has shown no skills and no real passion. He's a 4-5 and has can't even get PT. If he he were smart, he'd stay and let Duke develop him. Don't know what his relationship is with K at this point. GM: I would not draft this kid at this point. Period.
Allen ... His non-basketball issues are hurting him. He still has great athleticism and can shoot. It's all about the attitude and how he plays the rest of the way. If he can mature on the court and play well the rest of the season, he'll be in that 15-25 mix for sure. GM: Drafting in the bottom 10 picks of round 1, I'd take him if he fit team needs.
Kennard ... I love this kid. The NBA will as well. He's got savvy. Shooting skills. Defense in the NBA is a question-mark. But, I could see him as a JJ type player. I'd only pick him beyond the top 15. GM: If I need a shooter, I'd pick him, but only if I'm past 15. I'd be more comfortable selecting him at 20 or after.
Jefferson ... Now here's a player I can get behind. His lack of offense drops him below 25. But, if I'm in the 25-32 range, if I'm, say, the San Antonio Spurs, or the Warriors, I'd consider him. GM: He's probably a 2nd rounder but he's a mature, solid person who works hard. His foot issues are a great concern, let's see what he does next.
Jackson ... GM: would not draft this year. Likely two years away.
Playing NBA GM - a rundown:
Giles ... I would not draft him in round 1. Too many question-marks with his injuries. Talent? Yes. But he is so tentative and and who really knows. If I were Giles, I'd actually stay at Duke and see what happens. But, he may actually go to a quality team at the end of round 1. GM: I might consider him at the end of round 1 but honestly I would probably pass.
Tatum ... He obviously has offensive skills and size. But, he is not super quick or strong and that does not bode well for the NBA. How will he guard a 6'9 speedster or PF? He certainly can't guard an NBA 2. He will have to make a living on the offensive side and if he can't shoot the long range 3 - he's going to take a long time to develop at great risk. GM: depending on need, I would consider from 15 (at best) to the end of the round.
Bolden ... He is 3, maybe 2, years away. I also agree that I think he'll transfer. He has shown no skills and no real passion. He's a 4-5 and has can't even get PT. If he he were smart, he'd stay and let Duke develop him. Don't know what his relationship is with K at this point. GM: I would not draft this kid at this point. Period.
Allen ... His non-basketball issues are hurting him. He still has great athleticism and can shoot. It's all about the attitude and how he plays the rest of the way. If he can mature on the court and play well the rest of the season, he'll be in that 15-25 mix for sure. GM: Drafting in the bottom 10 picks of round 1, I'd take him if he fit team needs.
Kennard ... I love this kid. The NBA will as well. He's got savvy. Shooting skills. Defense in the NBA is a question-mark. But, I could see him as a JJ type player. I'd only pick him beyond the top 15. GM: If I need a shooter, I'd pick him, but only if I'm past 15. I'd be more comfortable selecting him at 20 or after.
Jefferson ... Now here's a player I can get behind. His lack of offense drops him below 25. But, if I'm in the 25-32 range, if I'm, say, the San Antonio Spurs, or the Warriors, I'd consider him. GM: He's probably a 2nd rounder but he's a mature, solid person who works hard. His foot issues are a great concern, let's see what he does next.
Jackson ... GM: would not draft this year. Likely two years away.
That same draft at one point early in the season had Grayson going twelve and Luke early in the second round with frank Jackson at 19 in the first round if I recall
One question, name 15 guys you'd pick over them (Tatum and Giles)
There are the what if factors that none of us know either.
Tatum I feel is the only sure fire OAD.
Giles- what if he wasn't as NBA now as we all expect and wants more time to get back to 100% healthy. Elite players have been known to skip being OAD bc of other priorities.
Bolden- what if he really never truly wanted Duke but just felt it could get him a Nat'l Championship while fulfilling his OAD aspirations. He may not be bought into Duke.
Kennard- what if he wants to graduate in 3 years and continue to develop at Duke.
Grayson- what if he (like some UNC guys) just want to stay at Duke for the love of the school.
Tatum I feel is the only sure fire OAD.
Giles- what if he wasn't as NBA now as we all expect and wants more time to get back to 100% healthy. Elite players have been known to skip being OAD bc of other priorities.
Bolden- what if he really never truly wanted Duke but just felt it could get him a Nat'l Championship while fulfilling his OAD aspirations. He may not be bought into Duke.
Kennard- what if he wants to graduate in 3 years and continue to develop at Duke.
Grayson- what if he (like some UNC guys) just want to stay at Duke for the love of the school.
I have the same question as timo - name 15 players you'd select ahead of Tatum (and 30 you'd select ahead of Giles).
In regards to Tatum, how many NBA players can guard a 6'9" power forward speedster? I don't think it's much of a knock on Tatum to say he likely can't do that. He'll probably be guarding a 3 in the NBA and I think he's athletic enough to do that. The kid is 18 years old. If you can watch him play and not conclude that he has the skills to eventually be a 10-year NBA starter, well... I don't know what to tell you.
In regards to Bolden, I can see him being unhappy with his PT and wanting to transfer if he doesn't choose the NBA. But this is a kid who, from what we've heard, wanted very much to be OAD. Transferring means he's guaranteed to be in college three years, as he'll have to sit out his sophomore season. I don't see him choosing an option that requires him to stay three years in college. I think the better money is on the idea that, if he doesn't go pro, he stays with Duke.