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6 Classes, Success Factor, 1-32 & New Seeding

stonedlizard

stonedlizard

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Oct 4, 2009
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  • Probably some mistakes
  • Used a new Seeding Criteria (shoutout to @HRCJR for inspiration) of (Wins*9)+(Opponents wins/2)+(Defeated Opponents Wins)
  • Seeded 1-32
  • Bumped SHG and Montini up from 4A to 5A due to success factor
  • Left ESL in 4A, bumping them in 5A would have pushed Danville down to 4A
  • 6A enrollment cutoff ~2250
  • 5A enrollment cutoff ~1590 (Montini & SHG bumped up with 1085 and 1112 enrollments respectively)
  • Can post 1-3A if interested

6A

(1) Loyola (150)
(32) Joliet West (88.5)

(16) West Aurora (117)
(17) LWE (115.5)

(8) Stevenson (130.5)
(25) Huntley (98.5)

(9) Barrington (126)
(24) Leydon (99)

(4) Brother Rice (141)
(29) Niles Notre Dame (91)

(13) Neuqua Valley (123.5)
(20) Curie (107)

(5) Palatine (141)
(28) Maine South (93)

(12) Edwardsville (124.5)
(21) OPRF (107)

(2) Hinsdale Central (142.5)
(31) Evanston (88.5)

(15) Oswego East (118.5)
(18) Lyons (110)

(7) SCE (133.5)
(26) Fremd (97.5)

(10) Marist (125.5)
(23) Plainfield North (103)

(3) HF (141)
(30) McHenry (89.5)

(14) NN (122.5)
(19) GBW (110)

(6) Oswego (135)
(27) Lockport (94

(11) Taft (125)
(22) New Trier (106.5)

5A


(1)Bradley BB (139.5)
(32) Hoffman Estates (88)

(16) Quincy (110.5)
(17) Thornton (110)

(8) Rockford Auburn (119.5)
(25) Montini (102.5)

(9) SCN (118.5)
(24) Hubbard (104.5)

(4) Lincoln Park (125.5)
(29) LWC (97.5)

(13) Benet (112)
(20) Danville (108.5)

(5) Normal Community (123)
(28) Rock Island (98)

(12) RB (118)
(21) Dekalb (107.5)

(2) SHG (135)
(31) Harlem (92.5)

(15) Lake Zurich (110.5)
(18) Batavia (109)

(7) Glenbrook North (121.5)
(26) Pekin (100)

(10) Rolling Meadows (118.5)
(23) Highland Park (106.5)

(3) Fenwick (129)
(30) Marmion (96.5)

(14) Richards (112)
(19) GBN (108.5)

(6) Cary Grove (123
(27) St.Laurence (99.5)

(11) Crete-Monee (118.5)
(22) Reavis (107

4A


(1) Lemont (142.5)
(32) Troy Triad (87.5)

(16) Galesburg (109.5)
(17) Grayslake North (105)

(8) Highland (123.5)
(25) Lake Villa (Lakes) (93)

(9) Peoria (122)
(24) Vernon Hills (93.5)

(4) Sterling (136.5)
(29) Decatur Eisenhower (89.5)

(13) Morris (112.5)
(20) St Ignatius (103)

(5) Morgan Park (134)
(28) Chatham Glenwood (89.5)

(12) Solorio (112.5)
(21) Hillcrest (99.5)

(2) Prairie Ridge (139.5)
(31) Woodstock North (89)

(15) Washington (111.5)
(18) Ridgewood (103.5)

(7) Rockford Boylan Catholic (123.5)
(26) Metamora (93)

(10) Goode (118.5)
(23) Kankakee (95.5)

(3) ESL (136.5)
(30) Jacksonville (89.5)

(14) Perspectives (112)
(19) Geneseo (103.5)

(6) Antioch (124.5)
(27) Centralia (91)

(11) Chicago Payton (116.5)
(22) Dixon (98




 
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stonedlizard

stonedlizard

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Oct 4, 2009
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5A with ESL

(1) Bradley BB)
(32) Hoffman Estates

(16) Lake Zurich
(17) Quincy

(8) Glenbrook North
(25) Montini

(9) Rockford Auburn
(24) Hubbard

(4) Fenwick
(29) LWC

(13) RB
(20) Glenbard North

(5) Lincoln Park
(28) Rock Island

(12) Crete Monee
(21) Dekalb

(2) ESL
(31) Harlem

(15) Richards
(18) Thornton

(7) Cary Grove
(26) Pekin

(10) SCN
(23) Highland

(3) SHG
(30) Marmion

(14) Benet
(19) Batavia

(6) Normal Community
(27) St. Laurence

(11) Rolling Meadows
(22) Reavis
 
L

lkhammer57

Sophomore
Jul 16, 2014
328
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This 4a definitely looks more entertaining than what 5a would be in our current situation, it just is tough because it still doesn't seem as tough as it could be because now you're losing a few ESCC teams to CPS schools that don't play a tough schedule and are usually an early out in the IHSA playoffs every year, at this enrollment at least
 
stonedlizard

stonedlizard

Senior
Oct 4, 2009
656
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I'm patting my own back so hard right now. Title picks with ESL in 5A...

6A
Brother Rice (post Loyola rematch win) over HF
5A
ESL over Glenbard North
4A
Prairie Ridge over Lemont
 
stonedlizard

stonedlizard

Senior
Oct 4, 2009
656
637
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3A looks like another gauntlet...


(1) Herscher (142.5)
(32) Wheaton Academy (88.5)

(16) Tolono (110.5)
(17) Aurora Central Catholic (108.5)

(8) Mt. Carmel (132)
(25) Plano (102)

(9) Herrin (131.5)
(24) Bloomington Central Catholic (105.5)

(4) Genoa (136.5)
(29) Taylorville (96.5)

(13) Mt. Zion (121)
(20) Breese (107.5)

(5) Belleville Althoff Catholic (135)
(28) Richmond Burton (97)

(12) Monticello (123)
(21) Alton (107)

(2) IC Catholic (142.5)
(31) Chicago (Marine) (92)

(15) Rochester (118.5)
(18) Canton (108)

(7) Wilmington (133.5)
(26) Jonesboro (102)

(10) Phillips (128.5)
(23) Chicago (South Shore) (105.5)

(3) Johnsburg (141)
(30) Eureka (96)

(14) Williamsville (119.5)
(19) Rockford Lutheran (108)

(6) Columbia (133.5)
(27) Manteno (98)

(11) Byron (124.5)
(22) Chicago (Clark) (107)
 
C

CCHS-Fan

Senior
Oct 4, 2001
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CCHS with this formula comes in at 97.5 points FYI.

5*9 = 5 wins times 9 = 45
53/2 = Opponents wins divided by two = 26.5
Combined wins of defeated opponents (WW 6, Naz 5, NND 6, MCC 5, SP 4) = 26
45 + 26.5 + 26 = 97.5

Insert into bracket please and remove junk teams that need to go.
 
1

14decoys

Freshman
Oct 30, 2008
156
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0
So teams like geneseo with 827 kids and Dixon with 802 kids get to match up against schools twice their size in 4A? 1590---? I'm not a fan of either but thats a stretch.or is the top of 5A 1590? never mind--I got it now....finally!
 
stonedlizard

stonedlizard

Senior
Oct 4, 2009
656
637
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CCHS-Fan said:
CCHS with this formula comes in at 97.5 points FYI.

5*9 = 5 wins times 9 = 45
53/2 = Opponents wins divided by two = 26.5
Combined wins of defeated opponents (WW 6, Naz 5, NND 6, MCC 5, SP 4) = 26
45 + 26.5 + 26 = 97.5

Insert into bracket please and remove junk teams that need to go.
Click to expand...

Check yo'self yo. Power Points were used for seeding. CC didin't make it in because they only won 5 games. Though it would be interesting to use Power Points as seeding and qualifying determination...
 
C

CCHS-Fan

Senior
Oct 4, 2001
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That criteria wasn't cited, but I got it.

I guess a schedule where your opponents go 53-28 isn't a good idea in the hopes of actually making the playoffs and being ready to play through tough games.
 
stonedlizard

stonedlizard

Senior
Oct 4, 2009
656
637
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CCHS-Fan said:
That criteria wasn't cited, but I got it.

I guess a schedule where your opponents go 53-28 isn't a good idea in the hopes of actually making the playoffs and being ready to play through tough games.
Click to expand...
6 classes so fat gets trimmed somewhere. I feel your pain and agree with you though. Perhaps, given some free time in the next few weeks, can play around with a model that would get CC in...
 
C

CCHS-Fan

Senior
Oct 4, 2001
2,034
594
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stonedlizard said:
6 classes so fat gets trimmed somewhere. I feel your pain and agree with you though. Perhaps, given some free time in the next few weeks, can play around with a model that would get CC in...
Click to expand...

What about conference champions with less than six wins? Do you gerrymander after the fact for that potential issue?
 
R

ramblinman_rivals165935

All-Conference
Jul 18, 2001
9,102
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stonedlizard said:
  • Probably some mistakes
  • Used a new Seeding Criteria (shoutout to @HRCJR for inspiration) of (Wins*9)+(Opponents wins/2)+(Defeated Opponents Wins)
  • Seeded 1-32
  • Bumped SHG and Montini up from 4A to 5A due to success factor
  • Left ESL in 4A, bumping them in 5A would have pushed Danville down to 4A
  • 6A enrollment cutoff ~2250
  • 5A enrollment cutoff ~1590 (Montini & SHG bumped up with 1085 and 1112 enrollments respectively)
  • Can post 1-3A if interested
6A

(1) Loyola (150)
(32) Joliet West (88.5)

(16) West Aurora (117)
(17) LWE (115.5)

(8) Stevenson (130.5)
(25) Huntley (98.5)

(9) Barrington (126)
(24) Leydon (99)

(4) Brother Rice (141)
(29) Niles Notre Dame (91)

(13) Neuqua Valley (123.5)
(20) Curie (107)

(5) Palatine (141)
(28) Maine South (93)

(12) Edwardsville (124.5)
(21) OPRF (107)

(2) Hinsdale Central (142.5)
(31) Evanston (88.5)

(15) Oswego East (118.5)
(18) Lyons (110)

(7) SCE (133.5)
(26) Fremd (97.5)

(10) Marist (125.5)
(23) Plainfield North (103)

(3) HF (141)
(30) McHenry (89.5)

(14) NN (122.5)
(19) GBW (110)

(6) Oswego (135)
(27) Lockport (94

(11) Taft (125)
(22) New Trier (106.5)

5A


(1)Bradley BB (139.5)
(32) Hoffman Estates (88)

(16) Quincy (110.5)
(17) Thornton (110)

(8) Rockford Auburn (119.5)
(25) Montini (102.5)

(9) SCN (118.5)
(24) Hubbard (104.5)

(4) Lincoln Park (125.5)
(29) LWC (97.5)

(13) Benet (112)
(20) Danville (108.5)

(5) Normal Community (123)
(28) Rock Island (98)

(12) RB (118)
(21) Dekalb (107.5)

(2) SHG (135)
(31) Harlem (92.5)

(15) Lake Zurich (110.5)
(18) Batavia (109)

(7) Glenbrook North (121.5)
(26) Pekin (100)

(10) Rolling Meadows (118.5)
(23) Highland Park (106.5)

(3) Fenwick (129)
(30) Marmion (96.5)

(14) Richards (112)
(19) GBN (108.5)

(6) Cary Grove (123
(27) St.Laurence (99.5)

(11) Crete-Monee (118.5)
(22) Reavis (107

4A


(1) Lemont (142.5)
(32) Troy Triad (87.5)

(16) Galesburg (109.5)
(17) Grayslake North (105)

(8) Highland (123.5)
(25) Lake Villa (Lakes) (93)

(9) Peoria (122)
(24) Vernon Hills (93.5)

(4) Sterling (136.5)
(29) Decatur Eisenhower (89.5)

(13) Morris (112.5)
(20) St Ignatius (103)

(5) Morgan Park (134)
(28) Chatham Glenwood (89.5)

(12) Solorio (112.5)
(21) Hillcrest (99.5)

(2) Prairie Ridge (139.5)
(31) Woodstock North (89)

(15) Washington (111.5)
(18) Ridgewood (103.5)

(7) Rockford Boylan Catholic (123.5)
(26) Metamora (93)

(10) Goode (118.5)
(23) Kankakee (95.5)

(3) ESL (136.5)
(30) Jacksonville (89.5)

(14) Perspectives (112)
(19) Geneseo (103.5)

(6) Antioch (124.5)
(27) Centralia (91)

(11) Chicago Payton (116.5)
(22) Dixon (98
Click to expand...


Really like the six classes and the new seeding. Thanks for the work. Still, though, there exists a substantial top to bottom range of competitive level in each class, and that's because the classes are composed strictly by enrollment.

I saw an idea on another board that I will just throw out there for you to chew on. What if each class had two divisions, A and AA? AA would contain the 1-16 seeds, and A would contain the 17-32 seeds? There would be provisions for petitioning to play up or down within your own class. In such a system, you could then play around with the number of classes even more (4 or 5 classes, perhaps?). You could also end the season a week earlier because there would be a maximum of four playoff rounds and not five.
 
C

CCHS-Fan

Senior
Oct 4, 2001
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Makes sense. Didn't see that listed either, but good to know. When do you present to the IHSA?
 
Snetsrak61

Snetsrak61

Senior
Aug 16, 2008
1,209
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ramblinman said:
Really like the six classes and the new seeding. Thanks for the work. Still, though, there exists a substantial top to bottom range of competitive level in each class, and that's because the classes are composed strictly by enrollment.

I saw an idea on another board that I will just throw out there for you to chew on. What if each class had two divisions, A and AA? AA would contain the 1-16 seeds, and A would contain the 17-32 seeds? There would be provisions for petitioning to play up or down within your own class. In such a system, you could then play around with the number of classes even more (4 or 5 classes, perhaps?). You could also end the season a week earlier because there would be a maximum of four playoff rounds and not five.
Click to expand...
So classes are divided by size and within a class, division is based on what?
 
stonedlizard

stonedlizard

Senior
Oct 4, 2009
656
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ramblinman said:
Really like the six classes and the new seeding. Thanks for the work. Still, though, there exists a substantial top to bottom range of competitive level in each class, and that's because the classes are composed strictly by enrollment.

I saw an idea on another board that I will just throw out there for you to chew on. What if each class had two divisions, A and AA? AA would contain the 1-16 seeds, and A would contain the 17-32 seeds? There would be provisions for petitioning to play up or down within your own class. In such a system, you could then play around with the number of classes even more (4 or 5 classes, perhaps?). You could also end the season a week earlier because there would be a maximum of four playoff rounds and not five.
Click to expand...

CCHS-Fan said:
Makes sense. Didn't see that listed either, but good to know. When do you present to the IHSA?
Click to expand...

I just can't see IHSA ever going back to 6 classes...
 
C

CCL65

Junior
Oct 28, 2015
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What would a good no-boundry school multiplier be with only six classes? With the range within a class being bigger, the current 1.65 might not have the desired effect.
 
stonedlizard

stonedlizard

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Oct 4, 2009
656
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ramblinman said:
How about four classes, with two divisions in each class? Classes would be composed by enrollment and divided according to top 16 teams and bottom 16 teams by seeding. Same number of playoff qualifiers as we have now.
Click to expand...
Do we have 8 champions then? Guess I'm just not seeing the different between 8 classes and 4 classes with 2 divisions each...
 
V

Voodoo Tatum 21

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I still like the idea of working in an open class. (Stoned.. you had that in a thread a few months ago I think).

Something about the hunger games?

Top 32 teams regardless of size - Set whatever minimum criteria you want before you will even be considered. must be 6-3 must have 40 playoff points, ranked in external polls, must be mean/nasty etc. whatever. Teams can then Opt in. ESPN covers it - schools get TV/AD money for their program for playing in it. Nike Sponsors it. Kids get free matching cleats. The champion has the option to play other state champions in Florida, California etc. More money for the 32 teams that dared enter "the Top 32"

Then have a 224 team playoff with 7 classes for all the other teams.

With a serious money and prestige incentive - I bet there are 32 teams that would opt in to play in the "top Division"
 
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stonedlizard

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Voodoo Tatum 21 said:
I still like the idea of working in an open class. (Stoned.. you had that in a thread a few months ago I think).

Something about the hunger games?

Top 32 teams regardless of size - Set whatever minimum criteria you want before you will even be considered. must be 6-3 must have 40 playoff points, ranked in external polls, must be mean/nasty etc. whatever. Teams can then Opt in. ESPN covers it - schools get TV/AD money for their program for playing in it. Nike Sponsors it. Kids get free matching cleats. The champion has the option to play other state champions in Florida, California etc. More money for the 32 teams that dared enter "the Top 32"

Then have a 224 team playoff with 7 classes for all the other teams.

With a serious money and prestige incentive - I bet there are 32 teams that would opt in to play in the "top Division"
Click to expand...
I'll work on the "hunger games" division idea after this years playoffs. Have some thoughts on how to refine based on some of the threads throughout the year...
 
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ramblinman_rivals165935

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stonedlizard said:
Do we have 8 champions then? Guess I'm just not seeing the different between 8 classes and 4 classes with 2 divisions each...
Click to expand...

Yes, 8 champions.

I misspoke earlier. I said 32 teams per class and 16 per division. Make that 64 teams per class and 32 per division. The exact same 256 teams as are qualifying now, but classified by enrollment into four classes and not 8.

Using your seeding, each of the the four classes would be broken up into two divisions according to teams seeded in the top and bottom halves the 64 team field.

Look at the difference this way: Imagine the current highest 16 seeded teams from each of the current 8A and 7A classes having their own bracket of 32 in the 4/AA class/division.

The purpose of doing it this way is to narrow the wide range of competitive levels that exist within each class as they are currently seeded.
 
Last edited:
I

ignazio

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Even in these systems, you still are not using legitimate seeding.

You've got Lincoln Park as a #4 seed - and not even their mothers would think they're that good.
They lost to Taft - and you've got Taft ahead of Edwardsville.

Yes, I understand it's primarily CPS that's fouling this up, but they wouldn't shed a tear for us if we were talking about basketball.

Legitimate seeding means you factor in strength of schedule.
 
stonedlizard

stonedlizard

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Oct 4, 2009
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ignazio said:
Even in these systems, you still are not using legitimate seeding.

You've got Lincoln Park as a #4 seed - and not even their mothers would think they're that good.
They lost to Taft - and you've got Taft ahead of Edwardsville.

Yes, I understand it's primarily CPS that's fouling this up, but they wouldn't shed a tear for us if we were talking about basketball.

Legitimate seeding means you factor in strength of schedule.
Click to expand...
That's 100% true, this was a quick rough seeding formula (HRCJR laid the groundwork, my tweak was "I feel Opponents wins are probably half as important as Defeated Opponents wins"), incorporating SOS into a seeding criteria takes much more time to model than what I had.
 
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stonedlizard

stonedlizard

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ramblinman said:
Yes, 8 champions.

I misspoke earlier. I said 32 teams per class and 16 per division. Make that 64 teams per class and 32 per division. The exact same 256 teams as are qualifying now, but classified by enrollment into four classes and not 8.

Using your seeding, each of the the four classes would be broken up into two divisions according to teams seeded in the top and bottom halves the 64 team field.

Look at the difference this way: Imagine the current highest 16 seeded teams from each of the current 8A and 7A classes having their own bracket of 32 in the 4/AA class/division.

The purpose of doing it this way is to narrow the wide range of competitive levels that exist within each class as they are currently seeded.
Click to expand...
I see the light now, let's see how it plays out...

Your 4A aka the highest possible class using above seeding in order of seed:

Wilmette (Loyola Academy) (150 pp)
Hinsdale (Central)
Flossmoor (Homewood-F.)
Chicago (Brother Rice)
Palatine (H.S.)
Bradley (B.-Bourbonnais)
Oswego (H.S.)
St. Charles (East)
Lincolnshire (Stevenson)
Oak Park (Fenwick)
Barrington
Chicago (Marist)
Chicago (Lincoln Park)
Chicago (Taft)
Edwardsville (H.S.)
Naperville (Neuqua Valley)
Normal (Community)
Cary (C.-Grove)
Naperville (North)
Northbrook (Glenbrook North)
Rockford (Auburn)
Oswego (East)
St. Charles (North)
Rolling Meadows
Aurora (West Aurora)
Frankfort (Lincoln-Way East)
Lisle (Benet Academy)
Lake Zurich
Quincy (Sr.)
LaGrange (Lyons)
Glen Ellyn (Glenbard West)
Batavia

Your 4AA

Carol Stream (Glenbard North) (108.5 pp)
Chicago (Curie)
Oak Park (O.P.-River Forest)
Burbank (Reavis)
Winnetka (New Trier)
Highland Park
Plainfield (North)
Pekin
Franklin Park-Northlake (Leyden)
Huntley
Palatine (Fremd)
Mundelein (Carmel)
New Lenox (Lincoln-Way Central)
Chicago (St. Rita)
Lockport (Twp.)
Park Ridge (Maine South)
Machesney Park (Harlem)
Niles (Notre Dame)
McHenry
Aurora (Waubonsie Valley)
Evanston (Twp.)
Joliet (West)
Hoffman Estates (H.S.)
Chicago (Simeon)
South Holland (Thornwood)
Villa Park (Willowbrook)
Rockton (Hononegah)
O'Fallon (H.S.)
Belleville (West)
Algonquin (Jacobs)
New Lenox (Lincoln-Way West)
Libertyville

Your 3A

Lemont (H.S.) (142.5 pp)
Crystal Lake (Prairie Ridge)
East St. Louis (Sr.)
Sterling (H.S.)
Springfield (Sacred Heart-Griffin)
Chicago (Morgan Park)
Antioch
Rockford (Boylan Catholic)
Highland
Peoria (H.S.)
Crete (C.-Monee)
Chicago (Goode)
Riverside (R.-Brookfield)
Chicago (Payton)
Chicago (Solorio Academy)
Morris
Oak Lawn (Richards)
Chicago (Perspectives/Leadership)
Washington
Lansing (Thornton Fractional South)
Galesburg (H.S.)
Danville (H.S.)
DeKalb
Grayslake (North)
Chicago (Hubbard)
Norridge (Ridgewood)
Geneseo
Chicago (St. Ignatius)
Lombard (Montini)
Burbank (St. Laurence)
Country Club Hills (Hillcrest)
Rock Island (H.S.)

Your 3AA

Aurora (Marmion Academy) (96.5 pp)
Kankakee (Sr.)
Vernon Hills
Lake Villa (Lakes)
Metamora
Glen Ellyn (Glenbard South)
Rochelle
Centralia (H.S.)
Chatham (Glenwood)
Dunlap
Decatur (Eisenhower)
Jacksonville (H.S.)
Woodstock (North)
Mahomet (M.-Seymour)
Peoria (Notre Dame)
Troy (Triad)
Waterloo (H.S.)
Marion (H.S.)
Woodstock (Marian)
Palos Heights (Shepard)
Olympia Fields (Rich Central)
Chicago (Urban Prep/Bronzeville)
Lake Forest (H.S.)
Normal (Community West)
Oak Forest
Deerfield (H.S.)
Arlington Heights (St. Viator)
Sycamore (H.S.)
Wheeling
Wauconda
LaGrange Park (Nazareth Academy)
Chicago (Westinghouse)
 
R

ramblinman_rivals165935

All-Conference
Jul 18, 2001
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ignazio said:
Even in these systems, you still are not using legitimate seeding.

You've got Lincoln Park as a #4 seed - and not even their mothers would think they're that good.
They lost to Taft - and you've got Taft ahead of Edwardsville.
Click to expand...

Let's look at this within the context of a four class system with two divisions in each class.

If a team like LP or Taft wanted to request to play down a division within their class, they could. Doesn't mean their request would be honored, but it could if there were enough teams in Division A that requested to play up. Maybe MS at 6-3 is seeded in the lower half of the 64 team class 4 field, and they petition to play up. Petitions to play up or down would be ranked in some fashion and could be accommodated according to the number of petitions from each division. If four division A teams want to play up, then four AA teams can move down. If only three division AA teams want to play down then only three division A teams can play up.

Regardless, you gotta admit that this A and AA division concept would help to even out the competitive peaks and valleys that exist within each current class.
 
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