A&M in Top 4, LOU falls

Beatle Bum

Heisman
Sep 1, 2002
39,949
60,396
113
According tot he AP it is Utah. But I go by Sagarin's and Stanford was still rated better.

19 Stanford A = 83.80
31 Utah A = 79.22

It becomes eye test vs computer formula.

Sagarin fails on this issue. The committee agrees with me. Utah ranked. Stanford correctly not ranked. No way Stanford is a top 20 team. Sagarin has WSU one spot below Stanford. LOL. Did you see that blowout?
 

LeonThe Camel

Senior
May 3, 2016
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Sagarin fails on this issue. The committee agrees with me. Utah ranked. Stanford correctly not ranked. No way Stanford is a top 20 team. Sagarin has WSU one spot below Stanford. LOL. Did you see that blowout?
I prefer formula driven analysis over a popularity contest. To each his own.
 

Beatle Bum

Heisman
Sep 1, 2002
39,949
60,396
113
I prefer formula driven analysis over a popularity contest. To each his own.

But those are not the only alternatives. If you watch these teams play, you know that Sagarin's computer is wrong. They have actually played some games and when he has a team that smashed another one spot below the team that was smashed, you might recognize there exists a problem. Eyes wide open.
 

jauk11

Heisman
Dec 6, 2006
60,631
18,638
0
Let's be realistic. We are playing the dregs of the SEC. We are winning which is new, but we have yet to beat anyone with a winning record. Nobody is fooling me yet.

Are you sure you haven't already been fooled by Kentucky? Nobody is foolproof.
 

kentucky_wildcat_#1

All-Conference
Aug 23, 2003
33,780
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Who actually ever considered UL to be a title contender? Not me. They are not and have never been title contenders. With that said, they are a good team and will be a good win for Stoops when Kentucky beats UL in our matchup. Jackson is a great talent and is hard to stop, but with our run game, we can keep the ball out of that kids hands and control the clock. I'm not worried about UL ' s. defense. They have a decent defense, but we have two really talented running backs in Boom and Snell JR. We will beat UL in our final matchup.
 
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red rage 2016

Sophomore
Oct 26, 2016
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Who actually ever considered UL to be a title contender? Not me. They are not and have never been title contenders. With that said, they are a good team and will be a good win for Stoops when Kentucky beats UL in our matchup. Jackson is a great talent and is hard to stop, but with our run game, we can keep the ball out of that kids hands and control the clock. I'm not worried about UL ' s. defense. They have a decent defense, but we have two really talented running backs in Boom and Snell JR. We will beat UL in our final matchup.

Let's see how those backs do against Georgia's rush defense.ehichbis just abive Louisville's rush defense.. UK's backs have been putting up good numbers but they haven't done it against against a Top 50 rush defense.

Miss St. 58th
Vandy 69th
Mizzu 119th
Tenn 101st.
Georgia 13th
UofL 16th

If UK can run on Georgia's rush defense then I will give them credit but the two teams you did play that had a Top 20 rush defense you weren't able to break 100 yards combined.
 

LeonThe Camel

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May 3, 2016
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But those are not the only alternatives. If you watch these teams play, you know that Sagarin's computer is wrong. They have actually played some games and when he has a team that smashed another one spot below the team that was smashed, you might recognize there exists a problem. Eyes wide open.
I suggest you look at Utah's schedule.
They currently have 3 wins by more than a touchdown. Those are to Southern Utah, San Jose St., and Arizona.
A 4 point win over USC, 1 over BYU, 5 over Oregon St, 7 over UCLA.

Stanford has lost to Wash St, Washington, and Colorado. All ranked teams. The teams Stanford has beaten have all been by 10 or more except ND.

Stanford has beaten the same teams by more than Utah. Ap/Coaches Poll be danged.
 

LeonThe Camel

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May 3, 2016
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But those are not the only alternatives. If you watch these teams play, you know that Sagarin's computer is wrong. They have actually played some games and when he has a team that smashed another one spot below the team that was smashed, you might recognize there exists a problem. Eyes wide open.
I suggest you look at Utah's schedule.
They currently have 3 wins by more than a touchdown. Those are to Southern Utah, San Jose St., and Arizona.
A 4 point win over USC, 1 over BYU, 5 over Oregon St, 7 over UCLA.

Stanford has lost to Wash St, Washington, and Colorado. All ranked teams. The teams Stanford has beaten have all been by 10 or more except ND.

Stanford has beaten the same teams by more than Utah. Ap/Coaches Poll be danged.
 

Beatle Bum

Heisman
Sep 1, 2002
39,949
60,396
113
I suggest you look at Utah's schedule.
They currently have 3 wins by more than a touchdown. Those are to Southern Utah, San Jose St., and Arizona.
A 4 point win over USC, 1 over BYU, 5 over Oregon St, 7 over UCLA.

Stanford has lost to Wash St, Washington, and Colorado. All ranked teams. The teams Stanford has beaten have all been by 10 or more except ND.

Stanford has beaten the same teams by more than Utah. Ap/Coaches Poll be danged.

38 and 27. Those are the point differentials in Stanford's losses to Wash and WSU, respectively. Sagarin had the 3 loss Stanford one spot ahead of the 2 loss WSU. I suspect WSU takes issue with that.
 

LeonThe Camel

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38 and 27. Those are the point differentials in Stanford's losses to Wash and WSU, respectively. Sagarin had the 3 loss Stanford one spot ahead of the 2 loss WSU. I suspect WSU takes issue with that.
I have no doubt. Not every ranking fits every opinion. But I prefer to use the comp stats over human stats which tend to be more name driven biased.
 

louisvillechip

Redshirt
Sep 20, 2006
5,671
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At this point, it appears there is a 3 team race for the final playoff spot between UofL, Ohio St, and Washington. If UofL wins out, Ohio State loses to Michigan, and Washington loses any game, then UofL is in. No way the committee puts in a two loss team over UofL.

Auburn is going to lose again @Bama, Nebraska and Florida lost again last weekend. So the only team left to even consider would be Wisconsin with two losses. I just can't see the committee picking Wisconsin over UofL.

UofL needs a lot of help to get in, but it's not that far fetched to think Michigan beats Ohio State and Washington drops a game.
 
Nov 7, 2008
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At this point, it appears there is a 3 team race for the final playoff spot between UofL, Ohio St, and Washington. If UofL wins out, Ohio State loses to Michigan, and Washington loses any game, then UofL is in. No way the committee puts in a two loss team over UofL.

Auburn is going to lose again @Bama, Nebraska and Florida lost again last weekend. So the only team left to even consider would be Wisconsin with two losses. I just can't see the committee picking Wisconsin over UofL.

UofL needs a lot of help to get in, but it's not that far fetched to think Michigan beats Ohio State and Washington drops a game.

A 2 loss team with very high sos could jump that putrid sos of da villa
 

jauk11

Heisman
Dec 6, 2006
60,631
18,638
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At this point, it appears there is a 3 team race for the final playoff spot between UofL, Ohio St, and Washington. If UofL wins out, Ohio State loses to Michigan, and Washington loses any game, then UofL is in. No way the committee puts in a two loss team over UofL.

Auburn is going to lose again @Bama, Nebraska and Florida lost again last weekend. So the only team left to even consider would be Wisconsin with two losses. I just can't see the committee picking Wisconsin over UofL.

UofL needs a lot of help to get in, but it's not that far fetched to think Michigan beats Ohio State and Washington drops a game.

I have been dreading this day for a long time, I was afraid the day would come when I would have to pull for Ohio State.
 

Grumpyolddawg

Heisman
Jun 11, 2001
28,469
37,269
113
At this point, it appears there is a 3 team race for the final playoff spot between UofL, Ohio St, and Washington. If UofL wins out, Ohio State loses to Michigan, and Washington loses any game, then UofL is in. No way the committee puts in a two loss team over UofL.

Auburn is going to lose again @Bama, Nebraska and Florida lost again last weekend. So the only team left to even consider would be Wisconsin with two losses. I just can't see the committee picking Wisconsin over UofL.

UofL needs a lot of help to get in, but it's not that far fetched to think Michigan beats Ohio State and Washington drops a game.

Big10 could get real interesting, lets say this happens, tOSU beats Mich, and then loses to Wisconsin in the Big10 championship game, game was very close when they played. You end up with a 2 loss champion, a 1 loss team who didn't win their division. Who gets the bid, and Big10 will get 1. tOSU would be out, so does Wisconsin get in with 2 losses as conference champion over a 1 loss Michigan who beat them, does Mich who didn't win their division get in over the conference champion who they beat, or do both get in? For UofL or any other 1 loss non conference champion I think MIchigan has to win out, Harbaugh and the Michigan name will get them in with 1 loss even as non division champion and Big10 gets 2 in if tOSU beats Michigan and wins the conference, even over an undefeated Washington. Bama and Clemson aren't very likely to lose a game. Big 12 and PAC12 get omitted from the playoffs, SEC and ACC get 1 in while Big10 puts their 2 big names in, if that happens hopefully both lose the first round.

IF Washington loses and tOSU beats Michigan in a close game, Michigan will be the 1 loss team to make it in. Like it or not, tOSU and UofL are both 1 loss teams, but no one really thinks UofL would be tOSU other than UofL fans.
 

bthaunert

Heisman
Apr 4, 2007
29,518
21,619
0
At this point, it appears there is a 3 team race for the final playoff spot between UofL, Ohio St, and Washington. If UofL wins out, Ohio State loses to Michigan, and Washington loses any game, then UofL is in. No way the committee puts in a two loss team over UofL.

Auburn is going to lose again @Bama, Nebraska and Florida lost again last weekend. So the only team left to even consider would be Wisconsin with two losses. I just can't see the committee picking Wisconsin over UofL.

UofL needs a lot of help to get in, but it's not that far fetched to think Michigan beats Ohio State and Washington drops a game.
It's not a 3 team race for the final spot. Bama, Washington, Clemson and Michigan have it locked up if they all win out. The race is between 1 loss teams to see who gets a spot if any of these teams lose.
 

rmattox

All-Conference
Nov 26, 2014
6,786
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As long as ohiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiio state does not get a spot, I'll consider this to be a good season.
 

CardHack

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
120,002
4,975
113
When Penn State was a good seven to eight spots higher in the CFB poll than any metric on the boards that told me that Michigan is a virtual lock even if they lose to Ohio State to be in the CFP. If Wisconsin won the Big Ten title game over Ohio State in those circumstances it would be Michigan and Wisconsin.

Alabama is in even with a loss to Auburn IMHO. Clemson needs to win out...but while they have an impressive resume' they aren't as sure a thing against UNC or Virginia Tech as they'd like to think. I think Michigan is in given what I outlined above unless they get hammered in Columbus--which they won't. Defensively that shapes up to me as a game where 24 will win it.

That leaves Washington obviously as your 4th and the most realistic barrier to two Big Ten teams getting in.
 

LeonThe Camel

Senior
May 3, 2016
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Pretty simple, UK is better than you think they are, surprise! Of course we probably wouldn't have to be very good to reach that goal.
Extremely happy we are doing better than previously. I wish we could beat a winning team, but that may have to wait until next year.
 
Jan 29, 2003
18,120
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At this point, it appears there is a 3 team race for the final playoff spot between UofL, Ohio St, and Washington. If UofL wins out, Ohio State loses to Michigan, and Washington loses any game, then UofL is in. No way the committee puts in a two loss team over UofL.
But if "Washington loses any game" then they have one loss, they aren't a "two loss team". So you'd have one loss Washington vs one loss Louisville, and Washington would have a conference title (unless that loss came in the conference championship game)......
 

CardHack

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
120,002
4,975
113
But if "Washington loses any game" then they have one loss, they aren't a "two loss team". So you'd have one loss Washington vs one loss Louisville, and Washington would have a conference title (unless that loss came in the conference championship game)......

Mojo...not if that one loss was to Washington State. Washington State is also undefeated in the PAC12's North Division. Washington State does have to go to Boulder to play Colorado next week so even if they lost that game...if they beat Washington head-to-head they'd have that as the tiebreaker.
 
Jan 29, 2003
18,120
12,185
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Mojo...not if that one loss was to Washington State. Washington State is also undefeated in the PAC12's North Division. Washington State does have to go to Boulder to play Colorado next week so even if they lost that game...if they beat Washington head-to-head they'd have that as the tiebreaker.
hmm, didn't realize that - so there's more intrigue for you guys than I realized.
 

CardHack

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
120,002
4,975
113
hmm, didn't realize that - so there's more intrigue for you guys than I realized.

...and for reasons I haven't at all figured out completely overlooked. It's why I keep coming back to the likelihood that there are going to be two Big Ten teams in the Playoffs. Either one of Michigan or Ohio State (or both) as well as Wisconsin if they win the Big Ten Title game.
 

tmuck

All-Conference
Oct 2, 2009
10,982
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A one loss Mich, Ohio State, and Wash would get in over UL. Alabama is a lock, and Clemson looks to be. Sitting at #2, they could lose a game and still get in.
 

Trumpfan666

Redshirt
Nov 9, 2016
14
16
0
America wants to see Lamar Jackson in the playoffs. Louisville will backdoor it's way in like bama has done numerous times during the BCS era.

America wants a bama/Louisville match up. Ratings Trump all!!!
 

tonyyw

Redshirt
Feb 10, 2008
32
14
0
OK. Clemson is the clear winner of the ACC. At no point this season has even a thought of 2 ACC teams making the playoff come up for anyone logical. It just will never happen. All this people talking crap about UL fans being sad are silly. I dont think anyone who knows the game has considered UL a contender since the Clemson loss. You have to win your conference if youre in the ACC and want to make the playoff. And unless Clemson magically loses 2 more ACC games. Which is starting to look like an impossibility. Then UL being considered for the playoff is a pipe dream. The only way 2 teams from same conference make playoff is if there's 2 one loss SEC teams or maybe the Big Ten at some point. They dont reward teams like UL for playing creampuffschedules and beating abunch of terrible teams and not even winning its terrible conference.

Guess how many teams are 5-3, and in the top 25? There's ONE........... FSU. The only reason theyre even in the top 25 is because they beat a very overrated at the time Miami team in which since the wheels have fallen off of. FSU doesn't have any impressive wins. All of their wins at the time of were impressive due to rankings, but each ranked team they've beaten. Have since fallen out the rankings. So for some reason a very undeserving FSU team with zero wins vs ranked teams is the only 3 loss top 25 team. And that's 100% due to the name on the front of the Jersey's. So UL's only win vs a ranked is against a FSU team that CLEARLY doesn't belong in the top 25. I've been saying all season long, that FSU is not a top 25 team and will fall out of the top 25 when its said and done. And with that being said. If it becomes true which to me, in reality, theyre not a top 25 team due to 5-3 with zero ranked wins. So youre telling me, UL's only ranked win, is vs a team that shouldn't be and wont be in top 25 when its all said and done? Now someone, please explain to me. How a team. With ZERO WINS VS TOP 25 TEAMS (One win vs borderline top 25 team isn't remotely close to playoff worthy either if you decide to use that argument) AND A TEAM THAT WONT WIN EVEN ITS OWN DAMN CONFERENCE LET ALONE A TOP 25 WIN IS SUPPOSED TO EVEN BE CONSIDERED FOR A FREAKING PLAYOFF?

Im sorry, But this UL team is SEVERELY overrated. And a playoff birth WILL NOT HAPPEN. People on this board and everywhere make them out to be much better than they are. They should've lost to freaking UVA (4 different times UVA shot themselves in the foot in the redzone and came out with no points), They should've lost to Duke but an absolutely garbage no fumble call was called when UL clearly fumbled the ball at a critical juncture of the game and a phantom roughing the kicker penalty call where the kicker flopped after missing a field goal and instead of Duke with the ball down 4 points with 2 minutes left in the game and great field position they gave UL the ball and a first down. This UL team, is by far the most overrated team in the country next to FSU and maybe Clemson (I have no faith in Clemson D and quite frankly i think the ACC is an awful conference). I truly think outside of the QB position. That UK is a much better team than UL (I've said this for awhile now). The QB position for them which is obviously the most important position i believe gives them the edge on being a better team. But i truly think we beat UL this year. And IMO it wouldn't be much of an upset because of how severely overrated UL is. UL, even if they win out. Will not make the playoff. You pretty much have to beat at least a couple ranked teams AND win your conference if youre in the ACC if you even want to be considered for the playoff. And neither has or will any of those things happen. It's just a crazy pipe dream.
We will get our chance to see how "over rated" they are very soon. I f we get within 21 points of them I will be happy...go BBN
 

LeonThe Camel

Senior
May 3, 2016
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A one loss Mich, Ohio State, and Wash would get in over UL. Alabama is a lock, and Clemson looks to be. Sitting at #2, they could lose a game and still get in.
I do not see a 1 loss Washington in the playoffs. They get to go play either Ohio State or Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl.