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Alabama -6.5 vs Ole Miss

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woozman

woozman

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RebelBruiser said:
we're the best defense Bama will have faced all year
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Statistically you are correct, OM is 6th in the nation in PPG and 18th in YPG.

But playing devil's advocate - it's not like you have been tested at all by a good offense: South Carolina is 61st nationally in offense, Vandy is 83rd, and Memphis is 98th.

Bama has the nations 14th ranked offense so it sould be a good game early, but I expect Bama to win by at least 2 TDs.
 
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ArrowDawg

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....wins it will be a very tight, down to the wire kind of game. If it were at Bama I could see the argument for the blowout, but not in Oxford. As someone said, Ole Miss usually plays these big kind of games close, maybe partly because their opponent doesn't play their best, but whatever the reason that's how it usually plays out.

If you're a better, I hope you have a backup house if you bet the mortgage on Bama. My staright up prediction is an Ole Miss upset, but if Bama wins it'll be close.
 
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whatever.sixpack

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I agree w/ C34, I think it will be close and low scoring.
I see it going down similar to the OM/LSU game in 03, LSU was a much better team, but the OM D was super pumped and feeding off the best ever atmosphere in Oxford.
I don't see OM scoring tons on the Bama D or vice versa. Bama will go conservative and win 20-17 or something like that.
 
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DogFan75

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At this time has the best blend of O & D in the SEC. Will pound the Rebs may be at this time the best in the country. RB's second to no one they are loaded..

GODAWGS
 
ShrubDog

ShrubDog

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Better get Bamer at -6.5 cause it will go up once he sharp money comes in. Remember Ole Miss only scored 10pts vs Cocks. No brainer
 
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patdog

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Optimus Prime 4 said:
<span class="post-title">Wouldn't the smart money have already bet, instead of waiting for the line to go up?**</span>
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fishwater99

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The books in Vegas know who the smart betters are and when they bet, they adjust the line accordingly. They usually bet toward the end of the week. They wait until all the injury reports are in, check the weather, inside info, etc., then they make their bets...

Saying that Bama wins easily...... 14 - 21 points..</p>
 
ShrubDog

ShrubDog

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Uh yea. I see that you are confused. I didn't say The sharps are waiting for the line to go up (unless betting dogs) i think big money will be on Bama this game. If you want bamer less than a TD i think now is the time to get on it. I expect it to rise. But it shouldnt matter cause hey will win by 17 Fishwater you are somewhat right. They wait till late in week to see all reports etc. And they usually bet dogs in his case cause most lines for public favs like ohio st,USC, Penn state get inflated by the squares. I usually wait till day before or just before kick off to see where the % and money are. If a team is getting 70%+ love from bettors its an auto fade for that team. Made loads of money fading the most popular bets by The public.
 
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BigLeagueChew

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msu21 said:
I'm sure you know how he had to put an ad in the school newspaper looking for a roomate a couple of years ago. Nobody on the team wanted to live with the guy.
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Since I'm sure you know it is absolutely true.
 
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el capitan

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I personally like Ole Miss here. As has been stated, they are always UP for home games like this, and they now feel like they have something to prove. I look for a tight, low scoring game. There's a reason the line is moving down.

Also, MSU is now a 2 pt. favorite over Houston.</p>
 
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msu21

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I cannot go pull the actual ad or anything. But if you're around any former teamates of his preferably Robert Lane then we would have the same source.
 
ShrubDog

ShrubDog

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They dropped it half a pt. For some reason. Sometimes once pay service lines come out they adjust the lines. Also they drop it begging for fav money. Joe public thinks its goin to keep dropping in favs advantage. Thus they will jump on it early, in this case before it moves past the key number 6. Like im sure a bunch of Ole Miss fans just did when it dropped to six. Also sharps will drop some dimes on a team to initiate line movements then double up on the other side. Funny cause allot of folks on bamer and the line is dropping??
This is a rare case Im on the public side with Bama. FYI- it opened at 5.5
 
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Dental Dawg

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2008 Bama 24 Ole Miss 20
2007 Bama 27 Ole Miss 24
2006 Bama 26 Ole Miss 23
2005 Bama 13 Ole Miss 10
2004 Bama 28 Ole Miss 7

Average Bama 23.6 Ole Miss 16.8
Difference 6.8 points

The Games over the last 5 years have been closer than I thought. I still think Bama kicks that ***!!!!!!!!
 
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patdog

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There's something illegal about placing an ad looking for a roommate? And with Hardy, strange actions isn't an allegation, it's a well known fact.
 
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el capitan

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and I'm not buying that the "sharps" bet one side to move the line and then hammer the other side. This line is not going back up. Ole Miss is the play.
 
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el capitan

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...is that the sharps are manipulating the OM/Bama line down so that they can pound the other side. That's not how it works. And nowhere in that article does it say it works like that. Of course, I could have misread something in that incomprehensible, abortion of a post you made...
 
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el capitan

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Bodog is known as a site for squares. 9 out of 10 times the line Bodog has is going to be atleast 1/2 a point different than the line every other service is showing. That's because they have lower limits than most of the other services, meaning less sharps and more amateur bettors who are usually going to bet the same way as the public. Bodog changes their lines accordingly. This is why on Bodog Alabama is going to be a 5.5 point favorite, whereas on most other sites they will only be 5 point favorites. You'll notice they have MSU as only 1.5 point favorites, while the other services still have us favored by 2. This is because most of the public is still taking UH.</p>
 
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The Cotton District Yeti

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I've read this thread 3-4 times and I can't figure out what the hell you're talking about. Who said anything about an "LOI?" Dude told a true story and then backed up with his source. Go be a baby somewhere else.
 
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fishwater99

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I am interested to see where it is come game time.
I still see Bama covering this game and I will be there for my one Rebel game of the year with the wife's family...
I think some people are seeing this as a trap game for BAMA. They also are believing some of the pre-season Ole Miss hype all the sudden.

Bama 31 Rebels 17
 
ShrubDog

ShrubDog

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I use a local. Min. Wager amounts are very limited. There is pretty even action on both sides of state game. For this line movement i think you have to see how much money is on the sides, not how many people. And it looks like more money is on state with such a big line movement. It open with Htown -3
 
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Optimus Prime 4

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ShrubDog said:
I use a local. Min. Wager amounts are very limited. There is pretty even action on both sides of state game. For this line movement i think you have to see how much money is on the sides, not how many people. And it looks like more money is on state with such a big line movement. It open with Htown -3
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We're talking the OM line.
 
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