Alternate Universe 8A based on Soucie +2 events

[capnbillhitters]

Soucie was asked a couple of questions and provided guidance to the resulting 8A bracket

The two things beyond Soucie's elaborate assumptions:

1. Hinsdale Central beats HS (as Suc assumes) and OPRF (which I assume, and switches HC & OPRF seedings) and
2. Joliet West loses one of their final two games and drops out of PO picture thereby pushing GW into the #2 seed (per Suc) and dropping everyone else down one slot to replace 32 seed JW

So where does that land us? The following bracket would be a doozy .

Alternate Universe 8A Projected Brackets
Upper Bracket
32 Da Brook at 1 Loyola
17 Palatine at 16 MS

25 Glenbard East at 8 Hinsdale Central
24 Gurnee Warren at 9 Barrington

29 Sandburg at 4 Homer-Flosswood
20 Belleville East at 13 Curie

28 Fremd at 5 Edwardsville
21 Simeon at 12 Oswego

Lower Bracket
31 Plainfield S at 2 GW
18 OPRF at 15 S Elgin

26 Lyons at 7 Nap Central
23 Stevie at 10 Nequa

30 Marist at 3 Huntley
19 Conant at 14 Niles ND

27 Evanston at 6 Brother Rice
22 Waub Valley at 11 New Trier

 

[pjjp]

With that projection, Loyola's draw is off-the-charts tough. Might have to beat HC, H-F and GBW in succession. Yikes

 

[goodnamesaregone]

Joliet West is presently 3-4. It should be able to handle Stagg, which is 1-6, and that game is in Joliet. The tougher game will be against Lockport, which is 2-5, and that game is at Lockport on the last night of the season. Does JW have to lose both games for the Alternative Universe scenario to kick in?

 

[Bowie50]

Bring'em on! You got to beat the best to be the best! GO RAMBLERS! Although, this scenario is very scary!

 

[capnbillhitters]

Joliet West is presently 3-4. It should be able to handle Stagg, which is 1-6, and that game is in Joliet. The tougher game will be against Lockport, which is 2-5, and that game is at Lockport on the last night of the season. Does JW have to lose both games for the Alternative Universe scenario to kick in?

In the Soucie questions, someone mentioned that JW QB was out and that they might have a tough time in the final two games. They need to win both to get into the playoffs and the thinking was that maybe Lockport would be a tough out.

The next step was to say what would happen if they lose to Lockport.... who is the replacement team? Soucie's answer was moving GW into the 2 hole in 8A as lower enrollment team replaces JW.

Personally I believe HC beats OPRF in week 9 by 2-3 TDs but Souc has OPRF winning his seedings based on home field advantage. .

If this is the resulting 8A, Loyola would have to beat MS, HC, H-F and GW (big assumptions around no seeding upsets) in succession. WOW

GW would possibly benefit by a OPRF upset in week 10 and trip to OPRF in week 11 where they just won by 4 TDs and pretty much guaranty they play on Duchon up to DeKalb after week 11.

No easy games in there but it always helps to have home cooking.

 

[goodnamesaregone]

Looks like there could very well be a Super Bracket in 8A (and a pretty good bracket in 7A). If the 8A bracket is as stated above, I'll say the Final Four is LA vs HF and GW vs BR. Too bad those two games couldn't be played back-to-back at some stadium. That would be a Saturday afternoon well spent.

 

[Sunseed1]

They will never let BR and LA be in separate brackets

 

[Topiarydan1]

They will never let BR and LA be in separate brackets

That would be a great rematch

 

[capnbillhitters]

They will never let BR and LA be in separate brackets

One good thing about IHSA playoff format is that it doesn't come down to a subjective decision that "lets" one team play another...the numbers decide

 

[GEPreps]

Capn,

You need to account for a number of scenarios, given the current 8A field projections and 7A/8A cutline with GW as largest enrollment 7A

___ +/- Team Name (Wins-Points) ___

These are all the scenarios for bubble teams removed from projected 8A field :

-Joliet West (3-32) - loss to Stagg OR Lockport
-Warren (4-41) - loss to Vernon Hills AND Lake Zurich
-Plainfield South (4-31) - loss to Plainfield Central AND Oswego
-Bolingbrook (4-32) - loss to Lockport AND Homewood-Flossmor
-Stevenson (4-40) - loss to Zion-Benton AND Mundelein
-Glenbard East (4-36) loss to West Aurora AND Bartlett
-Waubonsie Valley (5-28) - loss Naper N AND Wheaton N AND points

But any of these scenarios would cancel scenario above and add team to 8A (or 7A) :

+Schaumburg (4-36) win over Palatine OR Fremd
+Glenbrook South (3-33) win over New Trier AND Waukegan
+York (3-41) win over DG North AND Lyons Twp
+O'Fallon (3-34) win over Bellville East AND ESL
+St Charles East (3-33) win over St Chas North AND Aurora East
+West Aurora (4-27) win over Glenbard East AND Metea Valley then enough points
+Leyden (3-26) win over Morton AND Willowbrook AND points
+Bloom Twp (3-34) win over Crete-Monee AND Rich East
+Metea Valley (3-33) win over Glenbard N AND Waubonsie V
+Lake Park (3-35) win over Neuqua Valley AND Naper Cent
+Bartlett (3-36) win over Streamwood AND Glenbard East
+Minooka (4-25) win over Oswego AND Plainfield North

 

[capnbillhitters]

Oooo...my head is hurting. I can hold two variables but 22? Thanks for putting this together. Makes it much easier to track.

The side of me that wants to see this settled on the field would love to see the brackets above play out.

For the boys sake, 7A would give them a better chance at bringing home the gold. And since I won't be absorbing any blows, I guess I will be a fan of JW et al.

 

[Goomlah]

I think I can say this safely now that it's on the free board: Souc's point cutoff for the 5 win teams is right now crazy low. And by crazy low I mean 34 points, which is as low as I can remember it. He only has 5 teams that won't qualify with 5 wins (he had ESL in but that won't happen). So if Lane wins a game they're most likely in. WV is probably in (they'll most likely beat NN anyway to make it a moot point). WA may get in with 1 win. Leyden and Minooka are a little more murkier.

 

[goodnamesaregone]

Capn,

You need to account for a number of scenarios, given the current 8A field projections and 7A/8A cutline with GW as largest enrollment 7A

___ +/- Team Name (Wins-Points) ___

These are all the scenarios for bubble teams removed from projected 8A field :

-Joliet West (3-32) - loss to Stagg OR Lockport
-Warren (4-41) - loss to Vernon Hills AND Lake Zurich
-Plainfield South (4-31) - loss to Plainfield Central AND Oswego
-Bolingbrook (4-32) - loss to Lockport AND Homewood-Flossmor
-Stevenson (4-40) - loss to Zion-Benton AND Mundelein
-Glenbard East (4-36) loss to West Aurora AND Bartlett
-Waubonsie Valley (5-28) - loss Naper N AND Wheaton N AND points

But any of these scenarios would cancel scenario above and add team to 8A (or 7A) :

+Schaumburg (4-36) win over Palatine OR Fremd
+Glenbrook South (3-33) win over New Trier AND Waukegan
+York (3-41) win over DG North AND Lyons Twp
+O'Fallon (3-34) win over Bellville East AND ESL
+St Charles East (3-33) win over St Chas North AND Aurora East
+West Aurora (4-27) win over Glenbard East AND Metea Valley then enough points
+Leyden (3-26) win over Morton AND Willowbrook AND points
+Bloom Twp (3-34) win over Crete-Monee AND Rich East
+Metea Valley (3-33) win over Glenbard N AND Waubonsie V
+Lake Park (3-35) win over Neuqua Valley AND Naper Cent
+Bartlett (3-36) win over Streamwood AND Glenbard East
+Minooka (4-25) win over Oswego AND Plainfield North

GE- That's a great analysis and shows just how wide open the playoffs are for a lot of schools. That's great for those teams and shows how wonderful this time of year is for high school football, apart from our own hope to see the Super Bracket play itself out.

 

[jdhitters]

Don't forget all the possible outcomes in the lower brackets, that will also impact 7A and 8A composition.

 

[GEPreps]

Not sure what you mean by "lower brackets". 32 qualifying teams with larger enrollments than GW are 8A and it does not matter what happens in the small schools.

FYI, Joliet West beat Stagg 28-27 in OT.

But...Bolingbrook is losing to Lockport in the 3Q.

 

[jdhitters]

Not sure what you mean by "lower brackets". 32 qualifying teams with larger enrollments than GW are 8A and it does not matter what happens in the small schools.

FYI, Joliet West beat Stagg 28-27 in OT.

But...Bolingbrook is losing to Lockport in the 3Q.

I mean if schools I through 7 improve wins and points more than current projected 8A teams it will push teams from lower brackets up.

 

[GEPreps]

8A is already starting at one end of the enrollment range, so the only factor to account for is the playoff points needed by a 5-4 team to get an at large berth.

There are not really any 5 win 8A teams with low points projected in, except now Waubonsie Valley (if they lose to Wheaton North), or possibly Plainfield South??

I got the impression that points would be low this year in the mid 30's.

Maybe you could give me an example scenario of how an 8A playoff team gets knocked out by a push from lower enrollment classes, other than a 5-4 team with low playoff points.

 

[jdhitters]

I did not go back and look , but if there are lower level teams that before yesterday had 3 wins, win the last 2 and have enough points, and are not yet projected to be in does that not push 7A up? Sort of like JW situation had they won final two games but with reverse impact. Similarly if there were 4 win teams expected to be in but lose their last two, doesn't that impact 8A? I have not done the analysys and could be wrong since as you say you are starting at one end already, but it seems to me you can't look at it only from just the current 7A and 8 A persoective. My comment is more of a question for this better equipped to analyze and I should have written it as such.

 

[jdhitters]

8A is already starting at one end of the enrollment range, so the only factor to account for is the playoff points needed by a 5-4 team to get an at large berth.

There are not really any 5 win 8A teams with low points projected in, except now Waubonsie Valley (if they lose to Wheaton North), or possibly Plainfield South??

I got the impression that points would be low this year in the mid 30's.

Maybe you could give me an example scenario of how an 8A playoff team gets knocked out by a push from lower enrollment classes, other than a 5-4 team with low playoff points.

Thanks for the new thread. It makes a lot more since to me now, and I think your point about starting at one end now makes sense to me as I look at your new thread.

 

[WDTT1215]

Where does the soucie one get posted?

 

[capnbillhitters]

Subscribe to the Edgy board and you can see it on the other Edgy chat board. Soucies brackets will be up tomorrow with Q&A for a couple of days available for those that pay the monthly fee.

I think it is at or under $10 a month

 

[WDTT1215]

That is pretty cool. I'll have to check it out.