Another "do stars really matter?" posting...

[Bulldogg31]

A review of star ratings over the past several years...- (from Rivals, 24/7, Scout). Not a complete list, and probably not 100% accurate, but pretty close.

Here is a list of some signees with 4 stars or more...as rated by one or more of the recruiting sites:

Pernell McPhee (NFL)
Chad Bumphis (NFL?...c'mon Chad!)
Fletcher Cox (NFL)
Josh Boyd (NFL)
Tyler Russell
Charles Mitchell (NFL)
Denico Autry
Derrick Sherrod (NFL)
Anthony Dixon (NFL)
Co-Eric Riley
Templeton Hardy
Jazzmen Guy
Quay Evans
Jesse Bowman
Josh Riddell
Maurice Langston
Phillip Freeman
Nick James
Rashun Dixon
Robert Elliott
James Maiden
James Carmon
Damian Robinson
Michael Carr
Xavier Grindle
Joe Morrow
Kaleb Eulls
Montrell Conner
Dee Arrington
PJ Jones
Chasman Davis
Anthony Summers

Here are some notable 2 Star (or less) guys (again...as rated by one or more of the recruiting sites)...

J.C. Brignone - (Played in NFL - Chicago Bears)
Kyle Love - (NFL)
Corey Broomfield
Arceto Clark - (NFL)
Chris Relf
Dillon Day (Rimington Trophy nominee)
Blaine Clausell
Preston Smith
Ben Beckwith (unrated)
Jamaal Clayborn
David Stewart (NFL - unrated)
Damian Williams
Darius Slay - (NFL)
Jameon Lewis
Malcolm Johnson
Taveze Calhoun
Bernardrick McKinney (Butkus Award finalist)
Kendrick Market
Baker Swedenburg (unrated)

And finally, where we make our living, the 3-star guys:

KJ Wright (NFL)
Jonathan Banks (NFL)
Chris White (NFL)
Gabe Jackson (NFL)
Vick Ballard (NFL)
Cameron Lawrence (NFL)
DeRunnya Wilson
Kendrick Market
Richie Brown
Dak Prescott
Nickoe Whitley
Deonte Skinner (Butkus Award finalist)
Ladarius Perkins
Josh Robinson
Jay Hughes
Jamerson Love
Matthew Wells

Just food for thought during recruiting season. Some good at the top, some good at the bottom, lots of money being made in the middle...just like most things.

 

[57stratdawg]

They matter. There are some people on the '4 star' list that have absolutely no business being ranked highly.

 

[Bulldogg31]

Yep, and there are some 4-stars this year that shouldn't be ranked that highly. The services also missed on some NFL guys as 2-stars.

Natural talent and size matter, but what you do with them once they're on campus matters just as much.

 

[esplanade91]

Guys like Calhoun and Banks had glowing reviews from every opposing coach in their division their junior and senior years. I'd guess 85% of the people who follow recruiting casually have no idea what I'm talking about or that there are coaches that faced those two on record in papers or whatever that talked about how great they were.

We don't make our living on 2 stars and 3 stars... we make our living on guys who went to 1A and 2A schools in Farmville who were men among boys in their ranks who happen to be 2 or 3 stars more than not. Anyone else notice that for the most part any time we get a commit he automatically becomes a 3 star now? Think it's that much different than the kids we were getting in 2009 or 2010? Mullen waking up the MSU faithful was the best thing that ever happened to Ro$ebowl or Gene$page.

Scout or any of them really are a good place to start but they rarely tell the whole story. Honestly, Chris Jones would have gone down as a NR 2 star had his OV to Ole Miss not happened... and that tells you everything you need to know. He's easily one of the best prospects to ever set foot on Scott Field in maroon and white. You knew that. Mullen knew that. Everyone except USM knew that... yet he didn't become a 5 star until he turned into clicks.

Before the internetz or scouting websites, I wonder how many times schools like Notre Dame, Michigan, UCLA, or Oklahoma knew about random 1st round picks from rural places like Mississippi when they were seniors in high school. I'm as sure as everything good and holy that Archie Manning would have been a 2 star from Drew at the time. And I'm equally as sure that some nafoomer just spit up Franzia on his computer screen and is laughing about that comment saying "BUT HE WAS AMAZING!"... because stars determine success!!!!!!!!





The experts get 4 and 5 stars right more times than they get 2 or 3 stars right, but that's not limited to high school scouting. Tom Brady was a 6th round pick, Warren Moon went undrafted, blah blah the list goes on. And those two specifically didn't go to schools where they didn't get exposure. Kids we look at typically don't have exposure and to boot they don't have many resources. Got to wade through the **** to find the gold. Bottom line, I want 4 and 5 stars. It's not the end of the world when we don't get them and sign 3 kids with no other offers on signing day instead. Anyone who tries to talk **** about us for doing so can shut up, because since day one during the Mullen era a 2 or 3 star has shown out against an SEC team A LOT better than us.

 

[DreadNought.sixpack]

You don't see Saban signing a lot of 2 and 3 star players and he gets pretty good results, so I would say yes, stars matter.

 

[Freezus H. Christ]

They absolutely matter. You can always find examples of lower rated players who exceed expectations and become big time players , but the majority of the lower ranked guys don't. The key is to have a balance between the lower ranked guys and blue chip guys. You can't consistently win in a league like tbe SEC with an 85 man roster full of "diamonds in the rough." Until we can tip the balance towards more higher rated players we will continue to struggle to stay out of the SEC cellar. The 2015 class seems to be the potential turning point for our recruiting,so hopefully Dan can make things come together to put the "Merlinz can't croot" to rest

 

[Wicked Pissah]

A review of star ratings over the past several years...- (from Rivals, 24/7, Scout). Not a complete list, and probably not 100% accurate, but pretty close.

Here is a list of some signees with 4 stars or more...as rated by one or more of the recruiting sites:

Pernell McPhee (NFL)
Chad Bumphis (NFL?...c'mon Chad!)
Fletcher Cox (NFL)
Josh Boyd (NFL)
Tyler Russell
Charles Mitchell (NFL)
Denico Autry
Derrick Sherrod (NFL)
Anthony Dixon (NFL)
Co-Eric Riley
Templeton Hardy
Jazzmen Guy
Quay Evans
Jesse Bowman
Josh Riddell
Maurice Langston
Phillip Freeman
Nick James
Rashun Dixon
Robert Elliott
James Maiden
James Carmon
Damian Robinson
Michael Carr
Xavier Grindle
Joe Morrow
Kaleb Eulls
Montrell Conner
Dee Arrington
PJ Jones
Chasman Davis
Anthony Summers

Here are some notable 2 Star (or less) guys (again...as rated by one or more of the recruiting sites)...

J.C. Brignone - (Played in NFL - Chicago Bears)
Kyle Love - (NFL)
Corey Broomfield
Arceto Clark - (NFL)
Chris Relf
Dillon Day (Rimington Trophy nominee)
Blaine Clausell
Preston Smith
Ben Beckwith (unrated)
Jamaal Clayborn
David Stewart (NFL - unrated)
Damian Williams
Darius Slay - (NFL)
Jameon Lewis
Malcolm Johnson
Taveze Calhoun
Bernardrick McKinney (Butkus Award finalist)
Kendrick Market
Baker Swedenburg (unrated)

And finally, where we make our living, the 3-star guys:

KJ Wright (NFL)
Jonathan Banks (NFL)
Chris White (NFL)
Gabe Jackson (NFL)
Vick Ballard (NFL)
Cameron Lawrence (NFL)
DeRunnya Wilson
Kendrick Market
Richie Brown
Dak Prescott
Nickoe Whitley
Deonte Skinner (Butkus Award finalist)
Ladarius Perkins
Josh Robinson
Jay Hughes
Jamerson Love
Matthew Wells

Just food for thought during recruiting season. Some good at the top, some good at the bottom, lots of money being made in the middle...just like most things.

i dont think vick and chris white were even rated out of high school. A lot of juco guys like mcphee were 2 stars out of high school.

frankly, im glad i only have to read about stars for 2 months a year. **** is annoying. I used to follow recruiting 10 years ago. Im not sure how any sane person can get enjoyment out of it. We battled for patpat / sanders and snoop and got skinner and market. You just never know.

 

[HammerOfTheDogs]

Ole Miss should pummel Boise State this fall, simply showing their star ratings.

 

[thatsbaseball]

No, Beating Ole Miss is all that matters

 

[bonedaddy401]

Here is my line of thinking going forward... My theory if you will...

Mullen and Company have seen the promised land. They have been exposed to the very best talent in America at Florida. The also have seen the middle tier at Utah and really had to evaluate and dig at Bowling Green. This rare combination of exposure at different grades of talent has made Mullen and co. above average evaporators of said talent. What region of the United States has more undiscovered talent than where we are located? Its a cocktail that has produced the backbone and identity of our team. Don't look any farther than Dak.

The second step is due to the exposure and experience Mullen and co. have working with the different grades of athletes at Bowling Green, Utah and Florida we have an above average ability to develop guys once they get here. We know how to put guys in a position to make plays and become better players through of course hard work but also opportunity.

This is really starting to emerge as Mullen's legacy I think. The number of guys we send to the NFL now is much higher than we have in the past and many would say we recruited better under Jackie.

I know this is very "In Mullen We Trust" but tell me how else we have so many guys who people slept on that are impact players now? Legit NFL talent types.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

You don't see Saban signing a lot of 2 and 3 star players and he gets pretty good results, so I would say yes, stars matter.

They do matter but only to a degree. There are levels to it. Consistent Top 10 recruiting should put you as a national title contender (although Saban's first title at Bama didn't have those ratings). But the next 30 spots are not usually much different on the average because the vast majority of those players have to be developed more to be ready to play and you still have to take players that fit you besides just workout numbers. You take Sims the OL in Alabama that most think ends up at OM. He is a 4 star OL and should be automatic right? Except neither Bama or Auburn really want him. That tells you that the services put him on a level that the coaches disagree with. Everybody is getting so worked up about our OL recruiting, understandable, but by far our highest rated OL has not ever contributed. There are just too many variables once you get beyond the 30-40 truly elite players.

 

[Dog316]

The only time stars don't matter is on a very cloudy night. However, even on a clear night you can't tell the magnitude of a star by its brightness.

 

[121Josey]

A review of star ratings over the past several years...- (from Rivals, 24/7, Scout). Not a complete list, and probably not 100% accurate, but pretty close.

Please come back at the end of April and tell us how Mel Kiper's Big Board - or any mock draft for that matter - really doesn't matter.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

This rare combination of exposure at different grades of talent has made Mullen and co. above average evaporators of said talent.

This is how I would describe Stansbury.

 

[ckDOG]

Stars don't matter, but talent does.

As a general rule, the recruiting sites so a solid job at pairing those together. It isn't fool proof, but it's pretty solid. They are always going to miss on players every year due to a variety of reasons. However, that's no reason to discount star ratings as bogus. You should feel better about classes full of 4 stars and worse about classes light on stars.

Good news is that our staff is good at combing through those "misses" or perhaps they are just damn good at developing potential. Either way, for our coaching staff, I'm not going to be hung up on our stars as long as I feel we have SEC level talent on the field. I don't think our class rankings have improved significantly post-Croom but our on the field talent is light years ahead of where we were then.

One last point that doesn't get enough attention. The recruiting sites are only concerned about individual talent and not about the intangibles and fitting program needs. They aren't and can't be equipped to do that. If a program has needs at QB and RB and goes out and kills it everywhere but for these two needs, they will have a highly touted class but still have concerns going forward. The rankings don't award or discount points based on filling needs or recruiting to type of player. These are key elements of recruiting that don't get quantified and should be thought about before passing final judgment on a class.

 

[Seinfeld]

"It is better to have had talent and lost it than to have never had any talent at all"

Didn't Tennyson or Einstein say something like that?

 

[Bulldogg31]

Please come back at the end of April and tell us how Mel Kiper's Big Board - or any mock draft for that matter - really doesn't matter.

I don't follow that one. You're talking about the NFL draft? The one where teams look at three or four years of game tape, combine results, interviews, cognitive testing results, etc then decide where to invest millions of dollars?

If that's what you are referring to, I'd say that's a far cry from literally millions of high school football players competing for the 3,125 FBS scholarships given out each year?

My point in the first post is that everyone gets so excited about the 4* and 5* recruits every year, and really less than half of them amount to much. Meanwhile, nobody was very excited about Dillon Day and Bernardrick McKinnney on signing day, but they are far better than some of the 4* guys they signed with.

Also, Mel Kiper was pretty high on these guys...

Wendell Bryant (12th pick 2002)
Troy Williamson (7th pick 2005)
Jamarcus Russell (#1 overall pick 2007...seriously)
Tim Tebow (24th pick 2010)
Derrick Harvey (8th pick 2005)
Jamal Reynolds (10th pick 2001)
Aaron Curry (4th pick 2007)
Mike Williams (10th pick 2005)
Charles Rogers (2nd pick 2003...just ahead of Andre Johnson)
Joey Harrington (3rd pick 2002)

Not counting Ryan Leaf...Akili smith...Andre Ware...Tim Couch...KiJana Carter........

 

[GloryDawg]

You don't see Saban signing a lot of 2 and 3 star players and he gets pretty good results, so I would say yes, stars matter.

I would be very surprise if Saban only went by stars. You know he and his coaches are evaluating everyone. If that was not case he would not have to out to recruit just bring them in for visit. Just offer every five and four star guys out there.

 

[121Josey]

I don't follow that one. You're talking about the NFL draft? The one where teams look at three or four years of game tape, combine results, interviews, cognitive testing results, etc then decide where to invest millions of dollars?

If that's what you are referring to, I'd say that's a far cry from literally millions of high school football players competing for the 3,125 FBS scholarships given out each year?

That's exactly what I'm talking about. Any you don't college coaches are doing the same thing that you just wrote. You can take away the millions of dollars from the college game because we aren't talking about free agency, but don't think that schools are not investing money in these players.

Have you never heard of Big Dawg camp? The DeSinner Combine? The Elite 11? The UnderArmour game? Hudl Video? The ACT/SAT? ....

Bottom line, the same evaluation occurs on both levels. You're clearly not well-versed in the NCAA recruiting scheme. But thanks for the effort.

 

[tenureplan]

This is how I would describe Stansbury.

I laughed

 

[Bulldogg31]

That's exactly what I'm talking about. Any you don't college coaches are doing the same thing that you just wrote. You can take away the millions of dollars from the college game because we aren't talking about free agency, but don't think that schools are not investing money in these players.

Have you never heard of Big Dawg camp? The DeSinner Combine? The Elite 11? The UnderArmour game? Hudl Video? The ACT/SAT? ....

Bottom line, the same evaluation occurs on both levels. You're clearly not well-versed in the NCAA recruiting scheme. But thanks for the effort.

I'm not sure what point you are trying to make, and your comment about my level of knowledge of recruiting is incorrect.

My point is that the star ratings are only part of what makes a good recruiting class, and people shouldnt get too wrapped up in what the services say about a particular player. You disagree with that? If so explain all the 4 and 5 stars that amount to nothing and the 2 stars and unrated's that end up in the NFL.