Anyone else notice the line is down to 12.5? Started at 15.
- Thread starter Frank the Tank.sixpack
- Start date
I'm no gambling expert, so I'll show my naivety here. But, is there a way to tell who is placing the recent bets that shift the line? Not as in individual names, but general characteristics that would tell you something like that the bets are from a) a few people with big money or b) a lot of people with small money. I would think the people in group A are generally smarter with their sports betting than the general public in B. So if the line is being shifted by a few big money bets, could could mean there are some smart folks that really like us in the game. Again, showing my ignorance here. Just more curious than anything . . .
The lines always go down as the week progresses. Last week we started as 9 point underdogs. And it was down to about 5 by game day. Could it be that the superstitious voodoo LSU fans are betting against themselves to counter the bad luck of playing a day game and wearing purple?
Maybe you just meant this line, or something...
But off the top of my head I can think of 3 matchups this weekend where the above is false.
Bama/Ark, SC/Wash St, and FSU/USF. I like Ark, SC, and FSU in the following. But just saying, the line moves based on where the money is.
But off the top of my head I can think of 3 matchups this weekend where the above is false.
Bama/Ark, SC/Wash St, and FSU/USF. I like Ark, SC, and FSU in the following. But just saying, the line moves based on where the money is.
that about 80 percent of the money took us to cover at +15. Each half point usually means that there is a 15-20 percent trend.
So, say I'm a bookmaker. I open the spread at LSU -15. 20 people place $1000 bets, and only 4 take LSU. If LSU covers, I make a shitload - $16,000 in lost bets plus about $400 in juice. But if MSU covers, I only get about $4000 in lost bets and $1600 in juice, but have to pay out the $16,000 in won bets. Not good.
So I say lets move the line to LSU -14. I get an additional 20 bettors, with 10 people placing $1000 bets each way. This helps a little, if LSU covers the original 15, I still make a good amount, but if MSU covers, I'm still losing, but not near as much.
The bookmaker is trying to get as many people to take MSU as they do LSU, so I move the line to -12.5, this is where people start taking LSU. I get 20 additional bettors, with 16 placing $1000 bets on LSU and 4 placing $1000 bets on MSU.
I have $60,000 in bets on this game - $30,000 on LSU and $30000 on MSU. If the favorite covers the original spread or the underdog covers the final spread, I make $6,000 in juice. That's the minimum I am walking away with, and that's my goal as the bookmaker. If I wanted to make more money, I'd just bet on the game.
So, say I'm a bookmaker. I open the spread at LSU -15. 20 people place $1000 bets, and only 4 take LSU. If LSU covers, I make a shitload - $16,000 in lost bets plus about $400 in juice. But if MSU covers, I only get about $4000 in lost bets and $1600 in juice, but have to pay out the $16,000 in won bets. Not good.
So I say lets move the line to LSU -14. I get an additional 20 bettors, with 10 people placing $1000 bets each way. This helps a little, if LSU covers the original 15, I still make a good amount, but if MSU covers, I'm still losing, but not near as much.
The bookmaker is trying to get as many people to take MSU as they do LSU, so I move the line to -12.5, this is where people start taking LSU. I get 20 additional bettors, with 16 placing $1000 bets on LSU and 4 placing $1000 bets on MSU.
I have $60,000 in bets on this game - $30,000 on LSU and $30000 on MSU. If the favorite covers the original spread or the underdog covers the final spread, I make $6,000 in juice. That's the minimum I am walking away with, and that's my goal as the bookmaker. If I wanted to make more money, I'd just bet on the game.
I understand that concept. But, what I'm more interested in is figuring out who is betting that $$ that caused the line to shift. My assumption is that people who are the big $$$ betters are generally better at betting than the general public casual weekend better that places low bets. Of course, that assumption could be wrong. But if it is right, then I'd want to know if the dollars that Vegas took in that caused the line to shift was from a handful of big bets or lot of small bets. I'd feel more confident in our chances of covering (the original pre-shifted line) if it was due to a few assumed smart people betting big $$ vs. many casual betters that could be based on less objective factors.
Everyone knows what makes the line move. What this is telling me is that the sports books (who employ the smartest human beings on the planet) are moving the line to cover the bets of the heaviest and sometimes most intellegent bettors. These guys see something that we don't see. Don't think gambling is an exact science? Watch the numbers each week and tell me the odds makers are aren't geniuses.
The numbers are actually 360 on 16k and 1440 on the 4k i believe. It's because bets are usually made a -110. Which means you bet 110$ to win 100. So if you bet 1k, you don't get paid 1k, you get paid 91% of 1k. On the 16k, you only pay out 91% of the 4k which is 3640, leaving 360 leftover.
BTW... I was here about a month ago and bet MSU to win the NCAA Basketball Championship at 700/1 odds. I put 20 bucks on it so I would win about 14 grand. I lost my ticket like an idiot so I figured I would just buy another one on this trip. Grabbed the sheet and now see that we are 100/1. If in the extreme longshot I win, I now "only" get 2 grand. 3 options, just bet the 100/1 and kick myself in the *** for losing the big ticket, don't play at all and hope we dont win it (JK for you literalists) or bet 140 to win my original 14 grand. I think I'll probably just put like 50 on it and hope for the best.
No - I don't think we are going to win it all, but I do believe we have a chance.
Also in case anyone cares, I kicked *** on the no limit table last night!
No - I don't think we are going to win it all, but I do believe we have a chance.
Also in case anyone cares, I kicked *** on the no limit table last night!