APR Watch - it ain't looking good

[DawgatAuburn]

The numbers are starting to be stacked against us. With 80 total bowl spots (34 bowls and 12 playoff teams), it's looking like there will be at least 80 teams who either reach eligibility with 6 wins or by being ahead of us in the APR.

After this weekend, there are now 64 bowl eligible teams (including Missouri State who only gets a spot if there are fewer than 80 teams with six wins).

There are 8 teams with 5 wins ahead of us in the APR - that takes it up to 72 spots claimed
Clemson
Northwestern
Florida State
Kansas State
Rice
Duke
North Carolina State
Army

We are one of 17 teams (of 17'ing course) tied for #73 right now with 5 wins, but we are ranked ahead of them in APR. The only way they pass us is to win their 6th game.
Kentucky
Rutgers
Baylor
Kansas
Delaware (same boat as Missouri State)
Temple
Washington State
UTSA
Marshall
Miami (OH)
Georgia Southern
Florida International
Arkansas State
Utah State
Buffalo
Louisiana Tech

Another six teams have 4 wins, but could get to 5 and pass us in the APR
North Carolina
Auburn
UCF
Ball State
Liberty
West Virginia

Eight teams cannot pass us in APR but two wins makes them bowl eligible
Wyoming
Appalachian State
Maryland
Texas State
Louisiana
Kent State
Florida Atlantic
Penn State

Four more teams are 3-7 but with better APR's than us can get to 5-7 and pass us with two wins
Air Force
Wisconsin
Stanford
Florida

29 teams are eliminated from bowl contention or at least cannot pass us in the priority order.


Bottom line - we gave away our best shots to be bowl eligible by going 1-3 against AZ State, Tennessee, Florida, and Texas. If you want to throw in the no-show effort this past Saturday, I won't fight you.
It very well may be Egg Bowl or bust for our bowl hopes.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

Here's the remaining schedules for teams vying for a spot

APR Rank	Team	Conf	W	L	22-Nov	29-Nov	How to reach bowl eligibility
45	Mississippi State	SEC	5	6	off	Ole Miss	Needs to not **** the bed three times
48	Kentucky	SEC	5	5	at Vandy	at Louisville	Needs 1 win to reach 6
52	Rutgers	Big Ten	5	5	at Ohio State	Penn State	Needs 1 win to reach 6
62	Baylor	Big 12	5	5	at Arizona	Houston	Needs 1 win to reach 6
68	Kansas	Big 12	5	5	at Iowa State	Utah	Needs 1 win to reach 6
72	Delaware	CUSA	5	5	at Wake Forest	UTEP	Needs 1 win to reach 6
76	Temple	American	5	5	Tulane	at North Texas	Needs 1 win to reach 6
87	Washington State	Ind	5	5	at JMU	Oregon State	Needs 1 win to reach 6
90	UTSA	American	5	5	East Carolina	Army	Needs 1 win to reach 6
91	Marshall	Sun Belt (East)	5	5	at App State	Georgia Southern	Needs 1 win to reach 6
96	Miami (OH)	MAC	5	5	at Buffalo	Ball State	Needs 1 win to reach 6
99	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt (East)	5	5	Old Dominion	at Marshall	Needs 1 win to reach 6
105	Florida International	CUSA	5	5	Jacksonville State	at Sam Houston	Needs 1 win to reach 6
121	Arkansas State	Sun Belt (West)	5	5	Louisiana	at App State	Needs 1 win to reach 6
128	Utah State	MWC	5	5	at Fresno State	Boise State	Needs 1 win to reach 6
130	Buffalo	MAC	5	5	Miami (OH)	Ohio	Needs 1 win to reach 6
133	Louisiana Tech	CUSA	5	5	Liberty	at Missouri State	Needs 1 win to reach 6
4	North Carolina	ACC	4	6	Duke	NC State	Needs 1 win (better APR)
13	Auburn	SEC	4	6	Mercer	at Alabama	Needs 1 win (better APR)
25	UCF	Big 12	4	6	Oklahoma State	BYU	Needs 1 win (better APR)
28	Ball State	MAC	4	6	at Toledo	at Miami (OH)	Needs 1 win (better APR)
40	Liberty	CUSA	4	6	at Louisiana Tech	Kennesaw State	Needs 1 win (better APR)
44	West Virginia	Big 12	4	7	off	Texas Tech	Needs 1 win (better APR)
57	Wyoming	MWC	4	6	Nevada	at Hawaii	Needs two wins to reach 6
78	Appalachian State	Sun Belt (East)	4	6	Marshall	Arkansas State	Needs two wins to reach 6
89	Maryland	Big Ten	4	6	Michigan	at Michigan State	Needs two wins to reach 6
95	Texas State	Sun Belt (West)	4	6	ULM	South Alabama	Needs two wins to reach 6
109	Louisiana	Sun Belt (West)	4	6	Arkansas State	ULM	Needs two wins to reach 6
114	Kent State	MAC	4	6	Central Michigan	at Northern Illinois	Needs two wins to reach 6
118	Florida Atlantic	American	4	6	at UConn	East Carolina	Needs two wins to reach 6
119	Penn State	Big Ten	4	6	Nebraska	at Rutgers	Needs two wins to reach 6
9	Air Force	MWC	3	7	New Mexico	at Colorado State	Needs two wins ( better APR)
12	Wisconsin	Big Ten	3	7	Illinois	at Minnesota	Needs two wins ( better APR)
29	Stanford	ACC	3	7	Cal	Notre Dame	Needs two wins ( better APR)
38	Florida	SEC	3	7	Tennessee	Florida State	Needs two wins ( better APR)

 

[Dawgg]

The numbers are starting to be stacked against us. With 80 total bowl spots (34 bowls and 12 playoff teams), it's looking like there will be at least 80 teams who either reach eligibility with 6 wins or by being ahead of us in the APR.

After this weekend, there are now 64 bowl eligible teams (including Missouri State who only gets a spot if there are fewer than 80 teams with six wins).

There are 8 teams with 5 wins ahead of us in the APR - that takes it up to 72 spots claimed
Clemson
Northwestern
Florida State
Kansas State
Rice
Duke
North Carolina State
Army

We are one of 17 teams (of 17'ing course) tied for #73 right now with 5 wins, but we are ranked ahead of them in APR. The only way they pass us is to win their 6th game.
Kentucky
Rutgers
Baylor
Kansas
Delaware (same boat as Missouri State)
Temple
Washington State
UTSA
Marshall
Miami (OH)
Georgia Southern
Florida International
Arkansas State
Utah State
Buffalo
Louisiana Tech

Another six teams have 4 wins, but could get to 5 and pass us in the APR
North Carolina
Auburn
UCF
Ball State
Liberty
West Virginia

Eight teams cannot pass us in APR but two wins makes them bowl eligible
Wyoming
Appalachian State
Maryland
Texas State
Louisiana
Kent State
Florida Atlantic
Penn State

Four more teams are 3-7 but with better APR's than us can get to 5-7 and pass us with two wins
Air Force
Wisconsin
Stanford
Florida

29 teams are eliminated from bowl contention or at least cannot pass us in the priority order.


Bottom line - we gave away our best shots to be bowl eligible by going 1-3 against AZ State, Tennessee, Florida, and Texas. If you want to throw in the no-show effort this past Saturday, I won't fight you.
It very well may be Egg Bowl or bust for our bowl hopes.

Wow… good work on this. I remember the Arnett year where everything broke our way until the final games of the night. It at least made those late night Cal, Utah State, and Hawaii games interesting.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

Wow… good work on this. I remember the Arnett year where everything broke our way until the final games of the night. It at least made those late night Cal, Utah State, and Hawaii games interesting.

I gotta laugh when I see people looking back fondly upon the Arnett year…

But we have to laugh… otherwise we’d be crying…

 

[msudawg1200]

Wow… good work on this. I remember the Arnett year where everything broke our way until the final games of the night. It at least made those late night Cal, Utah State, and Hawaii games interesting.

Yeah, I remember us only needing UCLA to beat Cal at home and Cal beat the ever living shat out of them. I remember watching b-rated games all day. The one that really got us was Georgia State vs Old Dominion. Georgia State was 6-5 while ODU was 5-6, so we needed GSU to win. They are up 21-7 going into the 4th.ODU turned it over on downs on like their own 25 with about 6 minutes left. GSU could've finished it off, butt had a FG blocked. ODU the drove and kicked kicked a FG with like 1:30 remaining to make it 24-17. On the ensuing kick GSU started inside their own five and on the first offensive play the RB is hit for a safety. After the free kick, ODU then hit like a 50 yard pass to get to the GSU 5 and scored on a 3 yard run on the last play to win it. Some of the craziest crap I've ever seen. In hindsight, if GSU had of held on we make a bowl.

 

[kired]

Do we really want to play a 13th game this year?

 

[CochiseCowbell]

Guys, this is so simple. Let's just get some tutors to take exams for us.

 

[The Peeper]

Do we really want to play a 13th game this year?

That's my first thought, I've been embarrassed enough as it is.

My 2nd thought was this when I think about us in a bowl........

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

Was wondering about this, appreciate the hard work. Very tough to forecast with most teams still having two games left.

I may be in the minority but I personally think yeah, if we can play in a bowl at 5-7 let’s do it. If for nothing more than keeping our players on campus longer, maybe getting a showcase for guys expected to be back next year, etc.

I’ve long been in the camp of bowl results don’t really matter. I just know I’d rather prefer us be in one than not, typically.

 

[QuadrupleOption]

I gotta laugh when I see people looking back fondly upon the Arnett year…

But we have to laugh… otherwise we’d be crying…

Me too. We're about to end up at 5-7 just like Arnett's one year. It's not great but it is improvement over last year.

 

[BrunswickDawg]

Yeah, I remember us only needing UCLA to beat Cal at home and Cal beat the ever living shat out of them. I remember watching b-rated games all day. The one that really got us was Georgia State vs Old Dominion. Georgia State was 6-5 while ODU was 5-6, so we needed GSU to win. They are up 21-7 going into the 4th.ODU turned it over on downs on like their own 25 with about 6 minutes left. GSU could've finished it off, butt had a FG blocked. ODU the drove and kicked kicked a FG with like 1:30 remaining to make it 24-17. On the ensuing kick GSU started inside their own five and on the first offensive play the RB is hit for a safety. After the free kick, ODU then hit like a 50 yard pass to get to the GSU 5 and scored on a 3 yard run on the last play to win it. Some of the craziest crap I've ever seen. In hindsight, if GSU had of held on we make a bowl.

That ODU QB who scored the winning TD is the son of a friend of mine. He's QB #3 for Indiana now.

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

Do we really want to play a 13th game this year?

That was my thought when he said "it ain't looking good".

 

[Dawgg]

Yeah, I remember us only needing UCLA to beat Cal at home and Cal beat the ever living shat out of them. I remember watching b-rated games all day. The one that really got us was Georgia State vs Old Dominion. Georgia State was 6-5 while ODU was 5-6, so we needed GSU to win. They are up 21-7 going into the 4th.ODU turned it over on downs on like their own 25 with about 6 minutes left. GSU could've finished it off, butt had a FG blocked. ODU the drove and kicked kicked a FG with like 1:30 remaining to make it 24-17. On the ensuing kick GSU started inside their own five and on the first offensive play the RB is hit for a safety. After the free kick, ODU then hit like a 50 yard pass to get to the GSU 5 and scored on a 3 yard run on the last play to win it. Some of the craziest crap I've ever seen. In hindsight, if GSU had of held on we make a bowl.

Here’s that thread from 2023:

The Bowl Game Countdown to 82 (7 pm update - ONE SPOT LEFT) - Forums

Coming into the week there were 69 bowl eligible teams counting JMU and Jacksonville State since they are a higher priority than the 5-7 teams. Eastern Michigan won on Tuesday night, so there's #70. Friday results are all final. Out - CMU, Nebraska, TCU Utah State wins in 2OT and takes a spot...

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