I have a couple of friends that are commercial real estate brokers in NYC, and they said there is no way the market comes back for that in NYC or anywhere else really. They are getting paid bonuses now to renew leases even if someone downsizes. Once they go through all their lease renewals, they may need to look for another line of work.
Most tech companies have already said they are going 100% virtual. Although, tech companies due to the nature of the work are a bit different, but even my lawyer friends are saying they aren't going back full time. One said he'll probably need to go in 1-2 days per week, and even when he does they are using a "hoteling" model, which means they won't even have a dedicated desk let alone an office.
Another last night said since he's a partner, all he has to do is be able to go into NYC to entertain clients...not even to "work". So, he can move farther away and just grab a hotel room on the nights he's in town and it'll save the firm money.
My entire office team is now remote. All interviews are doing via Google Meet, and all paperwork is done via Docusign. I thought not interviewing people face-to-face would lead to worse hires, but there hasn't been any drop off in quality of hire and the efficiency has increased. I was going to double my office space and was about to sign the lease, until the **** hit the fan. Now I'm looking to downsize. I don't even need what I have regardless how many people we hire.
Commercial real estate is going to take a hit, but companies are going to save a **** ton of money on rent.