Ask Soucie: Week 9 Playoff Projections here

14decoys

Freshman
Oct 30, 2008
156
95
0
Ok I'll go first! In 5A you have (16) Woodstock MCC at (1) Phillips, and (15) St Viator at (2) Sterling. If both are 5-4, meaning Viator loses to ND and MCC beats St Pats, wouldn't it be the other way around? MCC has 38 playoff points and Viator 35 now. I don't see how they get more points than MCC in one week.
 
May 18, 2015
1,666
845
0
Hey Souc, hope your new computer is up and running.

If NV doesn’t beat GN and no other upsets occur, do you see GW as the 7, 8 or 9 seed in 8A?
 

go_rice

Senior
Sep 4, 2011
516
545
0
Wow, what a difference a bracket makes. In Catch 22's I saw MC going straight through to semi's. In this one, I don't know that they survive back to back trips to Duchon & Cronin Fields.
 

RockSoup

All-Conference
Oct 1, 2009
3,192
4,860
0
Wow, what a difference a bracket makes. In Catch 22's I saw MC going straight through to semi's. In this one, I don't know that they survive back to back trips to Duchon & Cronin Fields.

If they did survive Duchon and if SR beat the Bolts, then they would get SR at gately but your main point remains
 
  • Like
Reactions: go_rice

mullin17

Junior
Jul 2, 2001
569
218
43
If Stagg beats Moline (which can easily happen when you have Greg Hoard running the ball 30+ times a game) and has 39 playoff points where do hey fall 7A or 8A?
 

Wittymoniker1

All-Conference
Aug 6, 2007
5,415
1,817
113
Souce,

Does Chicago Mather have a realistic chance of beating Chicago Lincoln Park, so SR could move up to the 10th seed and get out of that GW/MC bracket?
 

Souc

Redshirt
Jul 11, 2001
1,411
38
0
Ok I'll go first! In 5A you have (16) Woodstock MCC at (1) Phillips, and (15) St Viator at (2) Sterling. If both are 5-4, meaning Viator loses to ND and MCC beats St Pats, wouldn't it be the other way around? MCC has 38 playoff points and Viator 35 now. I don't see how they get more points than MCC in one week.
They beat them 6-3 on points this week to make up the difference. One thing to keep in mind, Marian CC will get no more points from the two Wisconsin teams as they've already played nine games and Week 10 games don't count for playoff point scoring.
 

14decoys

Freshman
Oct 30, 2008
156
95
0
They beat them 6-3 on points this week to make up the difference. One thing to keep in mind, Marian CC will get no more points from the two Wisconsin teams as they've already played nine games and Week 10 games don't count for playoff point scoring.

Ok didn't know about the Wis teams! Thanks!
 

kyevco44

Redshirt
Aug 4, 2015
1
0
0
Hey Souc...in 1A...in the past several years, Abingdon Avon has gone north and Catlin Salt Fork has gone south when they both qualify. Your projection has them flipped this year. Just wondering if the north/south line changed. Thanks for your work!
 

Souc

Redshirt
Jul 11, 2001
1,411
38
0
Any TWO of the following:
Z-B Beats Libertyville
NV beats GN
WV beats WN
DGS beats WB

Any THREE and MS joins Eville in 7A
If Glenbard North beats Neuqua it doesn't matter in terms of slots, Neuqua won't get in on points. So if Glenbard wins, it is a simple spot swap.

You are right about the other two though.
 

Souc

Redshirt
Jul 11, 2001
1,411
38
0
Hey Souc...in 1A...in the past several years, Abingdon Avon has gone north and Catlin Salt Fork has gone south when they both qualify. Your projection has them flipped this year. Just wondering if the north/south line changed. Thanks for your work!
It hasn't changed. The line is always fluid.
 

Souc

Redshirt
Jul 11, 2001
1,411
38
0
Souce,

Does Chicago Mather have a realistic chance of beating Chicago Lincoln Park, so SR could move up to the 10th seed and get out of that GW/MC bracket?
Comparative results gives them a chance. And its CPL, so of course, I'd be about as sure of one of those results as I am I'm going to win the lottery.
 

go_rice

Senior
Sep 4, 2011
516
545
0
Shouldn’t Loyola be ahead of Huntley for that 6 seed in 8A? I’m assuming the Ramblers have more points..
 

Wittymoniker1

All-Conference
Aug 6, 2007
5,415
1,817
113
Comparative results gives them a chance. And its CPL, so of course, I'd be about as sure of one of those results as I am I'm going to win the lottery.

Thank you, Souce! Last question--what is more likely to happen: GW moving up to 8A or one of the following teams (Mather, Prospect, Thornton, Buffalo Grove or Deerfield) getting upsets, allowing SR to earn a higher seed?
 

denmig

Senior
Dec 19, 2015
141
448
43
Tolono Unity has wavered from 4a to 3a to 4a in the last few weeks. Do you see any possibility of Unity going 3A ? I assume they are looking at 4A south or 3A north.
 

kwmyers89

Redshirt
Aug 16, 2017
14
5
0
Souc - Do you really see 6A south 1 seed going to Crete over Normal West on points? Crete's schedule was pretty weak this year and many opponents play each other where Normal West should easilly have 5 more points if not 6 this week...
 
  • Like
Reactions: Dorgazm

MS4EVER

All-Conference
Dec 4, 2004
5,573
3,602
113
Souc - Do you really see 6A south 1 seed going to Crete over Normal West on points? Crete's schedule was pretty weak this year and many opponents play each other where Normal West should easilly have 5 more points if not 6 this week...
They both have the same amount of points right now so Crete's schedule was as weak as Normal West's. Crete in on top because they have more points in the tie breaker.
 
May 18, 2015
1,666
845
0
Any TWO of the following:
Z-B Beats Libertyville
NV beats GN
WV beats WN
DGS beats WB

Any THREE and MS joins Eville in 7A
If Glenbard North beats Neuqua it doesn't matter in terms of slots, Neuqua won't get in on points. So if Glenbard wins, it is a simple spot swap.

You are right about the other two though.

The question I was answering was “what would Move Eville down to 7A. NV beating GN would put NV in and another of those wins would make two and push Eville down to 7A

Did the math and see where ESL likely passes Hersey
 

Souc

Redshirt
Jul 11, 2001
1,411
38
0
Tolono Unity has wavered from 4a to 3a to 4a in the last few weeks. Do you see any possibility of Unity going 3A ? I assume they are looking at 4A south or 3A north.
Small. I've got Unity at spot 99 right now, they'd need to drop to 96. I've had three team shifts in Week 9 before but they are somewhat rare.
 

Souc

Redshirt
Jul 11, 2001
1,411
38
0
Thank you, Souce! Last question--what is more likely to happen: GW moving up to 8A or one of the following teams (Mather, Prospect, Thornton, Buffalo Grove or Deerfield) getting upsets, allowing SR to earn a higher seed?
The upsets. I think Glenbard West is pretty solidly in 7A.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Wittymoniker1

Cat Box

Senior
Sep 23, 2012
1,118
718
0
Assuming Aurora Christian beats Joe's to finish 5-4, will they have enough playoff points to qualify? What are the factors influencing the 2A/3A placement?
 

cornerrat

All-Conference
Aug 1, 2009
2,368
1,727
0
All.... Steve, should Providence finish 5-4 who likely would they play in round one? Ratsy
 

cornerrat

All-Conference
Aug 1, 2009
2,368
1,727
0
Looks like Shepard

All.... Thanks, that is what I thought as well. Of course what I think is really going to happen is the Celtics go 6-3. Chatham who is on the 5A/6A cut line goes 5A and NLP opens up with SHG. A Catholic battle royale so to speak. It could still happen regardless of how they finish should Chatham go 5A. Ratsy
 

godfthr53

All-Conference
Sep 8, 2008
4,964
2,778
113
All.... Thanks, that is what I thought as well. Of course what I think is really going to happen is the Celtics go 6-3. Chatham who is on the 5A/6A cut line goes 5A and NLP opens up with SHG. A Catholic battle royale so to speak. It could still happen regardless of how they finish should Chatham go 5A. Ratsy
The real question in this scenario is they Hersey would enter the 6A field. Who from the North goes "South" is it Naz, DLS, Marmion, DeKlab. I can see the IHSA making that line very diagonal.