I scanned the early lines on 5dimes tonight and grabbed several that looked enticing:<div>
</div><div>Ark -17 over Ole Miss in Oxford</div><div>Bama -28 over UT in Tuscaloosa</div><div>ULL -3 over Western Kentucky in Bowling Green (wtf line of the week)</div><div>Wisconsin -7 over Michigan State in East Lansing (wtf line #2 of the week)</div><div>
</div><div>Bonus Pick: Stanford -20 over Washington</div><div>
</div><div>5-team parlay: $55/$1280</div><div>
</div><div>I took the four individually and rolled the Stanford game into the parlay and wound up hedging on that pick in an identical parlay but flipping the pick to Washington... On to the writeups:</div><div>
</div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); ">I have performed serious statistical analysis on the ULL/WKU game. Almost every metric points to a 34-17 type win. The only dissenting stat is their one common opponent: FAU. ULL beat FAU 37-34 in week 5 and WKU shut out FAU last week 20-0. I like ULL's body of work, including their ability to move the ball on Oklahoma State in week 1. They were blown out, but they scored 34 points by putting up 3, 7, 10, and 14 points in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters respectively, which tells me it wasn't all against OSU's scrubs on defense. Their offense is for real.<div>
</div></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); ">I feel good about Arkansas at -17 in Oxford, although this is only their second road game of the season and they were smothered in Tuscaloosa. They may not be a great road team but thankfully they face the Black Bears who have a soft pass defense (53rd nationally) to match up against Arkansas' top notch passing attack (10th nationally). My only concern is if Ole Miss gives an effort similar to the UGA game and Arkansas ekes out a 14 point victory. I find that scenario highly unlikely... toxic environment in Oxford right now as the team has all but quit on this season and they will still be licking their wounds from a punishing 52-7 defeat at the hands of the Tide last week. Bama is the common opponent and Arkansas fared much better, the game was played in Tuscaloosa and was the second closest margin of victory thus far at 38-14. Arkansas should be healthy and rested up after the bye week, and playing with a ton of confidence after handling Auburn the week prior... I predict a 42-17 victory from the Hogs.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); "><div>
Alabama is great fun to wager on this season because they always take care of business and dispatch of each opponent in the same way: steady pressure that snowballs as the game rolls on. They are so consistent on both offense and defense, it really is remarkable if you look at the stat sheet... they average 9.9, 9.1, 12.3, and 8.4 points per quarter, 39.7 per game and give up 3.9, 0, 2, and 1.1 points allowed per quarter, 7 per game. What's truly astounding is when you filter out their non conference games their margin of victory actuallyincreasesfrom 32.71 to 32.75 points per game!!! They have allowed zero points in the second quarter all season, and just over 3 points allowed in the second half which is a product of their coaching and making adjustments in game. Tennessee, on the other hand, is 0-3 in the conference and their numbers look awful when you filter out their non conference games, averaging a 16 point margin of defeat (Florida (10), UGA (8), and LSU (31)). Tennessee is beat up, coming off a humbling 38-7 home loss to LSU, lost both of their playmakers that presented a passing threat in Justin Hunter and Tyler Bray, and currently rank 114th in the nation in rushing offense. Ouch. 28 points is a large spread but Bama will do what it always does. This one will probably wind up in the 41-3 range.</div><div>
</div><div>Wisconsin is another one that has produced satisfying covers week after week regardless of the spread. When I saw the line open at 7.5, my eyes about popped out of my head likethis guy. The line has actually dropped to 7... very surprised by that even though Sparty has proven to be a legitimate squad,performing well in conference and is 2-0 against quality Big Ten competition in Ohio State and Michigan. However, the convincing Notre Dame loss is a major red flag to me... I had to dig a bit deeper to understand why the spread would be so low. The smoking gun has turned out to be Michigan State's 34-24 victory over the Badgers last year. Also of note, conference realignment has caused this game to be played at Michigan State for the second year in a row. Wisconsin went on a tear after last year's game, cutting a swath through the conference en route to their Rose Bowl berth and surprising loss to TCU, which is their only blemish since. The bad news for Michigan State is that Wisconsin got a major offseason upgrade at QB in Russell Wilson, who has added a Cam Newton-esque dynamic to their already stacked running offense. What doesn't grab headlines is the Badger defense, but it should. Wisconsin has been dominant on both sides of the ball, ranking 1st nationally in points scored (50.2) and 3rd nationally in points allowed (9.7). Wisconsin won't beat Michigan State 50-10 but they may do them similar to how they did #8 Nebraska, which was over by halftime and ugly by the 4th quarter en route to a 48-17 final. I would LOVE to watch Wisconsin take on Bama or LSU in a BCS bowl game, which is where this team is headed.</div><div>
</div></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); ">I did some research on Washington and grew more concerned that they might hang around and cover the 19.5 spread, so I hedged by flipping that pick in a separate 5 team parlay. By the time I placed the wager, the line had moved to +20, meaning it is technically possible for Stanford to win with a final of, say, 37-17, and I could win both wagers by pushing the hedge bet and turning it into a 4-teamer. Washington may have an artificial 5-1 record, but it's a big conference home night game and Stanford is known to start slowly (see last week's game for a prime example). It was value priced insurance at $50 when the potential winnings are over $1200.</span></div>
</div><div>Ark -17 over Ole Miss in Oxford</div><div>Bama -28 over UT in Tuscaloosa</div><div>ULL -3 over Western Kentucky in Bowling Green (wtf line of the week)</div><div>Wisconsin -7 over Michigan State in East Lansing (wtf line #2 of the week)</div><div>
</div><div>Bonus Pick: Stanford -20 over Washington</div><div>
</div><div>5-team parlay: $55/$1280</div><div>
</div><div>I took the four individually and rolled the Stanford game into the parlay and wound up hedging on that pick in an identical parlay but flipping the pick to Washington... On to the writeups:</div><div>
</div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); ">I have performed serious statistical analysis on the ULL/WKU game. Almost every metric points to a 34-17 type win. The only dissenting stat is their one common opponent: FAU. ULL beat FAU 37-34 in week 5 and WKU shut out FAU last week 20-0. I like ULL's body of work, including their ability to move the ball on Oklahoma State in week 1. They were blown out, but they scored 34 points by putting up 3, 7, 10, and 14 points in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters respectively, which tells me it wasn't all against OSU's scrubs on defense. Their offense is for real.<div>
</div></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); ">I feel good about Arkansas at -17 in Oxford, although this is only their second road game of the season and they were smothered in Tuscaloosa. They may not be a great road team but thankfully they face the Black Bears who have a soft pass defense (53rd nationally) to match up against Arkansas' top notch passing attack (10th nationally). My only concern is if Ole Miss gives an effort similar to the UGA game and Arkansas ekes out a 14 point victory. I find that scenario highly unlikely... toxic environment in Oxford right now as the team has all but quit on this season and they will still be licking their wounds from a punishing 52-7 defeat at the hands of the Tide last week. Bama is the common opponent and Arkansas fared much better, the game was played in Tuscaloosa and was the second closest margin of victory thus far at 38-14. Arkansas should be healthy and rested up after the bye week, and playing with a ton of confidence after handling Auburn the week prior... I predict a 42-17 victory from the Hogs.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); "><div>
Alabama is great fun to wager on this season because they always take care of business and dispatch of each opponent in the same way: steady pressure that snowballs as the game rolls on. They are so consistent on both offense and defense, it really is remarkable if you look at the stat sheet... they average 9.9, 9.1, 12.3, and 8.4 points per quarter, 39.7 per game and give up 3.9, 0, 2, and 1.1 points allowed per quarter, 7 per game. What's truly astounding is when you filter out their non conference games their margin of victory actuallyincreasesfrom 32.71 to 32.75 points per game!!! They have allowed zero points in the second quarter all season, and just over 3 points allowed in the second half which is a product of their coaching and making adjustments in game. Tennessee, on the other hand, is 0-3 in the conference and their numbers look awful when you filter out their non conference games, averaging a 16 point margin of defeat (Florida (10), UGA (8), and LSU (31)). Tennessee is beat up, coming off a humbling 38-7 home loss to LSU, lost both of their playmakers that presented a passing threat in Justin Hunter and Tyler Bray, and currently rank 114th in the nation in rushing offense. Ouch. 28 points is a large spread but Bama will do what it always does. This one will probably wind up in the 41-3 range.</div><div>
</div><div>Wisconsin is another one that has produced satisfying covers week after week regardless of the spread. When I saw the line open at 7.5, my eyes about popped out of my head likethis guy. The line has actually dropped to 7... very surprised by that even though Sparty has proven to be a legitimate squad,performing well in conference and is 2-0 against quality Big Ten competition in Ohio State and Michigan. However, the convincing Notre Dame loss is a major red flag to me... I had to dig a bit deeper to understand why the spread would be so low. The smoking gun has turned out to be Michigan State's 34-24 victory over the Badgers last year. Also of note, conference realignment has caused this game to be played at Michigan State for the second year in a row. Wisconsin went on a tear after last year's game, cutting a swath through the conference en route to their Rose Bowl berth and surprising loss to TCU, which is their only blemish since. The bad news for Michigan State is that Wisconsin got a major offseason upgrade at QB in Russell Wilson, who has added a Cam Newton-esque dynamic to their already stacked running offense. What doesn't grab headlines is the Badger defense, but it should. Wisconsin has been dominant on both sides of the ball, ranking 1st nationally in points scored (50.2) and 3rd nationally in points allowed (9.7). Wisconsin won't beat Michigan State 50-10 but they may do them similar to how they did #8 Nebraska, which was over by halftime and ugly by the 4th quarter en route to a 48-17 final. I would LOVE to watch Wisconsin take on Bama or LSU in a BCS bowl game, which is where this team is headed.</div><div>
</div></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); ">I did some research on Washington and grew more concerned that they might hang around and cover the 19.5 spread, so I hedged by flipping that pick in a separate 5 team parlay. By the time I placed the wager, the line had moved to +20, meaning it is technically possible for Stanford to win with a final of, say, 37-17, and I could win both wagers by pushing the hedge bet and turning it into a 4-teamer. Washington may have an artificial 5-1 record, but it's a big conference home night game and Stanford is known to start slowly (see last week's game for a prime example). It was value priced insurance at $50 when the potential winnings are over $1200.</span></div>