Bama -10.5

[fishwater99]

Any chance we cover? I don’t see it.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

I’m inclined to lay the points, but I could also see a back door cover. No way we win outright.

 

[57stratdawg]

I’m hopeful we can run on them some.

 

[bruiser.sixpack]

I’m hopeful we can run on them some.

Yep without a running game, we have no chance to keep the score down. Surprised they are only favored by 10.5 this year after the beat us 41-0 last year.

 

[Msubulldogfan1]

They’re really destroying teams right now. Hard to see us covering on paper.

Simultaneously, they’re riding super high and may be prime for an upset. I give us a punchers chance at this.

 

[msstate7]

If Bama plays well, we lose and lose pretty big. Surely they're due an off game from the perimeter though... probably next game after they beat us by 50 lol

 

[fishwater99]

Down to -9 now.

 

[Rushisaband]

On my way to the Beau! Do we cover?

 

[notoriousD_O_G]

Where are you finding college baseball lines? And this early at that?**

 

[irondawg007]

Don’t overthink this line. Bama is destroying everyone and we looked horrible earlier in the week. The public sees Bama as an easy cover. Take the points. This will be closer than 9-10 points.

 

[msstate7]

Don’t overthink this line. Bama is destroying everyone and we looked horrible earlier in the week. The public sees Bama as an easy cover. Take the points. This will be closer than 9-10 points.

If the line is dropping, someone doesn't see this as an easy Bama cover.

 

[irondawg007]

The set line was high for public perception reason. You are right. Sharp money is on Dawgs.

 

[engie]

Howland by 5, roller coaster continues******

 

[Rushisaband]

Bama -550 on money line! Any thoughts?

 

[irondawg007]

Don’t mess with Bama ML that high. Dawgs are a large ML if they outright win. 4 to 1.

 

[Rushisaband]

But can/do we stand a chance to win?

 

[57stratdawg]

I parlayed it with the over

 

[karlchilders.sixpack]

Sure

if we play soild ball.

Stop being so slopy.

Play solid D.

 

[RocketDawg]

It'll be tough if Alabama hits 3's like they did last game. They made 69 points just from 3-pointers.

 

[karlchilders.sixpack]

69 from 3

gotta be a record.

 

[RocketDawg]

Yes, an SEC record. Don't know what the NCAA record is. They made 22 earlier in the season (a record at the time) and lost the game.

 

[Willowdawg]

If you find any other good lines you could do a teaser and add some points to it along with lowering the over. I like the over as well. Of course teasing lowers the amount of money you would win.

 

[TheDawgSaint]

I learned a long time ago not to bet on Mississippi State. I’m saying don’t bet either way for or against. Ha!

 

[Rushisaband]

Got the Dawgs +9- and Ky -2! Hail State

 

[TheDawgSaint]

Wow! Check out this ticket from Barstool https://twitter.com/bssportsbook/status/1353114021151600640?s=21

 

[Rushisaband]

Whew! I will take it! Damn

 

[fishwater99]

Got the Dawgs +9- and Ky -2! Hail State

Boom

 

[jethreauxdawg]

I wish I could talk to an odds maker

Down to -9 now.

How are they so good at their job so often?

 

[tatedog]

How are they so good at their job so often?

They mostly use models or algorithms to put up an opening number with very low limits, which certain sharp players bet to get a more accurate number. From there, the public guides the number and State was certainly a popular betting side in this situation. I think the overnight number was Bama -13'. More often the number moves in the correct direction, and the single best way to determine if you are good at handicapping is to predict the way the opening number will move. If you consistently beat the closing number you will profit long term. If you can't consistently beat the closing number, then you are gambling. A common fallacy is that well if the sharps bet a certain side, I should follow. You have to keep in mind though that they bet them at a better number. If they wanted the current number, it wouldn't be the current number.