Vegas odds aren't the true determinant of whether UK should win a game or not. The 2013 WKU game, 2015 Vandy game, and 2014 UL game are examples of games UK should have won but lost.
Barker is turning people into believers
- Thread starter screwduke
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Vegas odds aren't the true determinant of whether UK should win a game or not. The 2013 WKU game, 2015 Vandy game, and 2014 UL game are examples of games UK should have won but lost.
And the only reason UK is usually not the favorite in games is because of how poorly the team has played/how poorly stoops has coached. What a terrible stoops apologetic post this is. He's won every game he's supposed to. But if we actually won more games we wouldn't always be the underdog. See my point. Losing a bunch of games in which stoops has coached=always the underdog. Win some decent games with stoops as head coach we'd be favored to win more.
UK is 5-14 in its last 19 games. With zero quality wins. With its best win (by record) being against a 6-7 D2 EKU team in a miracle come back that we won overtime. But stoops wins every game he's supposed to? Wonder why. Is it because we're never supposed to win games? Good theory sir. Just pathetic what these stoops apologists come up with to back stoops, stoops apologists are excuse machines, much like stoops himself which is probably where they get it from. Guarantee joker was almost never favored to win games in his last couple seasons. But those cupcake games he was favored to win. He sure as hell won! That's your logic? Ha! Just can't express how pathetic these excuses that people try to point to as positives are when a coach has been failing miserably at preparation, in game adjustments, game management and clock management. Playing the blame game after every game pretty much blaming everything but his poor game management as to why we lose. Not to mention our very special teams not having an ST coach last season.
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Almost. Cats were a 4 point fav in loss to WKU in 2013.
That is a pretty interesting opinion. Sure there are alway games where defeat is snatched from the jaws of victory (and vice versa [winking]) but, if not pre-game spread, what exactly should determine whether a team should win or lose.
Peace
Heard the same about Towles last year... "everyone is buying in, he's so much better, he's such a great leader, has so much confidence now, he's different", etc. Turned out that confidence was phony confidence. You could see it in his interviews...just rehearsed "confident" answers. On the field, he folded. Hope Barker is the real deal and is a genuine leader, but we've all been down this road before with UK QBs from the past
Vegas sets a spread so that THEY win. They don't give a rats' behind about UK or our opponent, they just want to ensure equal bets on each side so that THEY win. I would listen to the opinion of analysts on the SEC Network, CBS, etc. and not guide myself by a pre-game Vegas spread.
And if anyone wonders why Vegas picks against us so much, well they are often right and make money off it. Want that to change? Win!!!!!!!!
5-14 with zero quality wins over last 19 with ZERO quality wins. Those are the numbers. It's not an if, ands, and buts. Those are the facts.
Now Rowland is on Twitter saying that Hinshaw recruiting more mobile, dual threat QBs for 2018 could have factored into Jones decision, lol. Yeah, he picked Bama cause he's worried about UK's offensive direction in the future when Bama already has stud QBs committed. Completely proves my point. I rest my case.
Given the history of Kentucky Football, it is borderline irresponsible to tweet out something like this
Seriously, how many times have we heard this before? It's practically one of our only actual football traditions...always profoundly shattered during the last 6 games (if not sooner) of every single season.
Maybe Matt Pilgrim can come back and be a beast DE for us.
Not once during the Stoops era have we heard this about a QB during the offseason. This makes it sound like Barker is the leader, which we heard nothing like this the last 3 QB competitions during the Stoops era.
Actually it's on the players. If you don't have the fire in your belly at kickoff then no coach can talk you into it. Shouldn't have too.
The fire your team shows. Is a pure reflection of the coach. In any sport. If your team shows up and rolls over. That's a poor reflection of your coach.
Wrong on all levels. The coaches teach them technique and assignments. If there's no desire to do these things at a high level then the coaches are cursed with the wrong players. In football it only takes one or two like that to screw up every play.
Many believe as you do and my opinion is they get most of their ideas from movies or sites such as this and very little from practical experience.
I have a state championship ring as a starting defensive end. And also started on my high school basketball team. I'll take my experience over yours. Let me make this clear. If what you say is correct. Then why do people keep praising stoops recruiting prowess? Then why can't we field 11 out of 80 players on each side of the ball that play with fire? Why are our starters so terribly heartless in the game? Why are these players playing? I mean there is 80 players to choose from. See here's the thing. You're dead wrong. Coaches do have the ability to motivate there team and fire them up. A lot of coaches in the game are really nothing more than motivators. And the coaches that can do this usually get the most out of the talent they have. Like Sweeney and harbough for example.
Also. See the Lamar Thomas hire? The man is as fired up as it gets for a position coach. And I promise you, the passion he brings to coaching, which is the same level of passion he displayed as a player. Will fire up our receivers. His energy, will trickle down to our receivers. I promise you our WR's will be EXPONENTIALLY better with Thomas as the WR coach. And a lot of that improvement will be due to his fire and passion for the game. Did you see our receivers play with passion last season? Did you not just get the feel that the games didn't even matter to them? Well. This coming season. You're not going to see that. And when I'm right. Get back at me with your theory. If you don't believe teams are a reflection of there coach. Then you've never played any competitive sports outside of a rec league.
I'm going to assume, from your resume, that you are a self starter and showed up with an attitude. You would have played for any coach. Some can not and you probably had a few on your team. I don't think this is news to you.
As for Stoops' recruiting it is much better than what we have had in the past but very recent. He still has to put bodies on the field and some aren't self motivators. They just go through the motions. Not enough depth to move them to the bench. These are guys who miss assignments and don't give that max physical or mental effort even though they are great athletes. Those half hearted efforts make the rest of the team look bad and that attitude is bred into them. No locker room speech is going to kickt it out of them.
As for a team reflecting a coach's attitude that comes from recruiting and not having to take so many chances on who you offer. UK is a long way away from that point in history.
As for me I played for a coach named Sid Gillman. Doesn't mean I know anything more than most. I'm just reluctant to blame the coach for most things I see on the field.
Nice talking with you.
And they do that by establishing an opening line that, in their opinion, reflects a 50% chance for either team to win. IOW, in their opinion they see one team as "X" points better than the other. It's easy to pick winners, much harder to win against the spread. Books do put their money where their "opinion" is; talking heads do not.
Peace
I don't know of a better determinate. Game outcomes need to be near 50/50 over/under or the house goes out of business.
"And they do that by establishing an opening line that, in their opinion, reflects a 50% chance for either team to win" End of quote.
I think you have a better handle on how Vegas works than most anyone on here, but think this goes against what you have been saying. They have their experts, yes, and they may determine that the point spread should be 8 points but if they think the favorites fan base may bet on their team more than the other (Bama in football, UK/Duke in basketball?) they may make that team a point or two more of a favorite than they think they deserve, to even the bets.
I thought I had a perfect example of an edge when Wisconsin came to Vegas in football years ago, they had a very good team AND travel great, (had more fans at the game than UNLV did according to some reports) and at the time it was the only chance they had all year to bet on their team legally (and to escape the cold and see Vegas) so I bet on UNLV because the bookies should have made the spread more than deserved to even the bets, advantage to betting on UNLV (that had a decent team that year).
Of course the Badgers won easily and ran up the score, but I still think the reasoning was right AND that they didn't set the odds where they thought it should be according to their experts.
Also reminds me of my stepson, Oklahoma grad, sending me $100 to bet on them playing Texas about 20 years ago, I really liked Texas when I looked at it so I put the money in my pocket. I was right, Texas dominated the game, but Oklahoma got one lucky TD and then scored a fluke TD at the end to cover. I never did tell him what I did, (or my wife, usually don't bet that much), I just sent him his $190.
There are no sure things betting in Vegas, try to sucker a UL fan into a better bet------and hope your prejudice doesn't make you the sucker.
But I am betting UK in the opener, it isn't last year for either team, and I don't think a lot of betters follow UK that much.
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If they absolutely KNOW a game will get strong action 1 way or the other because of "betting history" they may tailor their opening line a little bit (e.g., they "know" everybody likes to bet Notre Dame). But I'm sure UK is not in that category (basketball maybe). Every weekend they've got 60 games out there and some are simply going to get a lot more play than others (unless they make a very bad line to begin with). Some books even "test" their opening line with a limited bet opportunity to their biggest sharps. If it comes in heavy on one side they adjust the line before it goes to the betting public. And they don't always move the spread with the money bet. But they watch the big handle games like stockbrokers. If the books think the betting public is really wrong they may let it (the overlay) stand and pull in 80% of the betting action rather than just the 10% juice.
Peace
I'm going to stick with this point. Yes players don't need coaches to fire them up. But when it comes to a high level of play. Coaches can give players that extra edge, that extra motivation as long as they push the right buttons, and it translates to the field. Which is what coaches like harbough do. As I said you saw a heartless bunch at WR last season. This season you won't see that because of the intensity Thomas brings to the game. So when our wrs are light years better than last season. You're gonna tell me it's all because they all of a sudden developed a passion for the game? I ain't buying it. These receivers will look nothing like last season and that's going to be almost 100% due to the intensity Thomas brings to the field. Yes. The intensity Thomas brings to the game. Will translate to on field results from our WR's. Why is that you ask? Because Thomas don't tolerate the bullsh** and that's exactly why we will exponentially improve in that area next season.
Intense coaches that players respect. Often results in intense players ready to show out for there coach. Just the nature of the beast. It is what it is. Sometimes coaches need to give that extra push for a player or even an entire unit to play with fire that they may have not previously played with. That's like 40% of a coaches job when it comes to having your team game ready.
Given your track record that you just described, it seems like we should take SMU and the points in the first game. 
Just assuming you have information or have actually seen Barker this spring, given your complete rejection of the OP.
According to this article they lifted the ban about the 2000 basketball season. Looks like all sports is run by the almighty dollar now, especially at UK where it takes a fan strike to get any money for football and with the remodeling. Not to mention at Transfer U where winning supersedes all morals.
http://lasvegassun.com/news/2000/aug/04/betting-on-unlv-may-be-legal-by-winter/
You are really confusing me now. You just spent all night arguing with me on another thread that Stoops is TERRIBLE and should be fired NOW, and we might only win FOUR games this year.
Didn't you say you wouldn't have renewed your tickets if Dawson was still here, well, he isn't, and sounds like you think our new WR coach is the real deal and will get a lot more out of our receivers, you hated Towles and are very high on Barker, especially with a new coach, and isn't Gran supposed to be very intense and most agree he will be much better than Dawson, AND one of the big improvements there will be Stoops staying out of the offense. And don't most fans, including you I believe, think our DBs will be among the best in the SEC this year (probably a couple of four stars sitting on the bench at any time, and most agree that is Stoops specialty, and he deserves quite a bit of credit for their improvement).
Most agree the OL was the biggest problem last year, and the ONE player lost has been replaced by a 5.9 JC and a SIX POINT ONE OT (and yes, five star freshmen OL even start at programs like Bama, maybe not at the start of the year but----)
What the hell are you doing over here praising the new coaches when you are lobbying like crazy to get Stoops fired NOW, when that is just NOT going to happen and can't help our program at all, why tell all the recruits these coaches won't be here next year? Isn't it Stoops that got these guys here?
So, we had a terrible year last year, but won five games, we have a good home schedule with USC, Mo, and Vandy (big revenge factor there, I agree there is no way we should have lost to them last year) all at home with real problems this year , we should be favored in all three IMO, and you think five games is our ceiling, with four a possibility??
And I fully agree that it's about time UK upset a big name team, Brooks did one a year or more, (three after LSU skunked us, IIRC), and even Joker did a top ten team at least once.
Have a good night.
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Southern Miss. , Game # 1 will tell us all we need to know about the progress Mark Stoops has made with the team and Drew's !
Southern Miss has Dawson as Offensive Coordinator now. Why is anybody worried? Everybody agrees how terrible he was last year and the cause of all our problems.
Towles was a great human, with loads of potential. Too bad it was never realized. Last season, we probably win 2 more games with even decent QB play. We were a QB away from being a good team.
If Barker can give this team consistent, effective QB play - we'll be in good shape. If he does better than that, we'll really surprise some people this season.
If Barker can give this team consistent, effective QB play - we'll be in good shape. If he does better than that, we'll really surprise some people this season.
I know we are all in wait and see mode when it comes the QB job for Kentucky football, but news like this is better than people saying we don't have a clear cut favorite to start at QB this coming year. If he is turning heads, it can't be viewed as a bad thing. The way i see it with Barker is i would rather go down swinging than not swing a punch. With Barker at least we know he will try to make plays and win games on the field for Kentucky. With Towles as starter at QB, half the time it felt like the kid didn't even want to be in the spotlight to make the big throw to win us games. I would rather have a kid that isn't afraid to throw interceptions than just not even take a risk and let the play blowup for a sack. Barker will throw some interceptions this coming year. He will have games that he doesn't look so great, but unlike with Towles, Barker will be ready to come back the next game and try again. Barker is not afraid of the chance to fail. Towles was always scared to death to mess things up. No fear is always better than being scared to death.
The Nevada State gaming commission okayed it before the basketball season in 2000, I believe.
It seems all sports are all about the money these days, little to do with the fans, especially at UK. Yeah, UK got a new Commonwealth, at the cost of obligating the athletic department for about twice that much money, then most of the money was spent on taking out seats and installing castles for the high rollers to make more money. And then while he couldn't raise a dime to replace the folding chairs in the "recruiting room" fans donated about $45,000,000 for the "football center" (which basketball has had for about a decade) because something above the bare minimum was finally done for football.
Reminds me of him spending about $160,000 to hang some pictures on a wall somewhere when that would have solved most of the glaring problems with the "recruiting room", which I took as his way of showing the "microwave fans" who was in charge. Also of not being able to replace the video and sound systems for 12 years, when they were originally supposed to last ten years, and then replacing the money in a day when the ignorant profs protested LOANING some of the money with interest that athletics (mostly football, that charges full out of state tuition for scholarships for most of our players) had GIVEN them over the years.
All good now, more money than they can spend (LOL), but the COA is still going to come back to bite us in the butt, already is no doubt. I still wonder why everyone on here thinks that is just fine, it isn't that much money compared to the cost of not doing it. And yes, I know it is another can of worms the NCAA opened, but Bama doubled theirs in a couple of days when Auburn started out twice as much as theirs, they aren't a city college either.
I had a good friend that was an elected judge in traffic court that always started a session by stating "Its all about the money, folks". Both my kids worked for him one summer. Always fighting with the city managers, once it came out in the newspaper he spent quite a bit of money upgrading his office and the city commission said with that money they could have put another half a cop on the street, He said they already had quite a few "half a cops" on the street. I told him that was one of the funniest things I ever heard, and he replied but yeah, you don't know how much trouble that caused me. I can imagine, i bet the cops loved him.
They have a lot of power, once I was in front of him for running TWO stop signs, in a hurry and motorcycles are hard to spot, when my case came up he said "What do we have here? Running a stop sign? I know Jack, he doesn't drive fast enough to run a stop sign, case dismissed". I still wonder what some of the poor guys he threw the book at {and he did) thought of that.
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Because Im a realist. I don't think every unit on our team is going to suck. I think barker is going to have some growing pains this year but at the same time I know he's a million times better than towles. Always has been. We got a major upgrade at the QB position. I think our WR's will be great next season. Where I think we see a lot of problems is in the front 7. I like the secondary. But our defensive line is going to get shredded by these SEC OL's and RB's. And running QB's will be a nightmare again for us. And our linebackers as a whole are too inexperienced to make an impact in the SEC.
We are going to struggle getting pressure on the QB in the exact way it was our Achilles heel last season. Very hard to win when a QB has all the time in the world to pass. The only way we generate pressure is how we did last season with a lot of blitzing. But in doing that we're giving teams open opportunities to burn us for big gains/long scores. We need to figure out how to get pressure only rushing 4, but our DL isn't good enough to do that. Teams are going to have field days with our front 7. That's where we're going to lose a lot of games. Teams will run it down our throat a lot this season and most times there'll be nothing we can do about it if it's an SEC opponent. Really sucks that hatcher had to suck we needed his pass rushing presence this season in the most desperate of ways.
